Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[tight isobar]

Epsf- 12z !…. Non issue of formats here … resolvement still awaiting on cross sets “given” however you’d pick the current cross boards in ANY given year - on we roll….we’d be extremely unlikely nxt 8/14,day period- not to have the big outer conti/ polar draw!

Edited January 6 by tight isobar

[Northern Sky]

I'm starting to think I prefer cold spells that seem to spring out of nowhere at the end of op runs. Feels like we've been counting this down for weeks and still the pain goes on. It's exhausting 

[Kasim Awan]

Significant streamer activity looking increasingly likely Monday night / Tuesday -9/-10C air yields a snow line of 25-75m asl with wind direction and instability placement optimal for 2-14cm North Kent with scattered 2-8+cm Essex into Sussex. As the core of instability pushes westwards, an upper level westwards movement of any formed streamers is likely later on Monday increasing potential for scattered accumulations acrosss much of central Southern England.

Edited January 6 by Kasim Awan

[icykev]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

Unless the ECM op is leading the way  and they all flip.  For what it's worth our Met Service  has milder weather with rain for us after the weekend.  Of course that doesn't mean the UK  will be mild too.

Not true, Met Eireann going for cold out to week 3 before confidence begins to wane

 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Significant streamer activity looking increasingly likely Monday night / Tuesday -9/-10C air yields a snow line of 25-75m asl with wind direction and instability placement optimal for 2-12+cm North Kent with scattered 2-8+cm Essex into Sussex. As the core of instability pushes westwards, an upper level westwards movement of any formed streamers is likely later on Monday increasing potential for scattered accumulations acrosss much of central Southern England.

Running into Convective/ streamer activities there .

[WolfeEire]

5 minutes ago, icykev said:

Not true, Met Eireann going for cold out to week 3 before confidence begins to wane

 

Met Eireann in the evening update state:
NEXT WEEKEND: Current indications suggest that next weekend, there may be a change with our weather becoming milder and with rain developing.

/images/OG-icon.jpg

National Forecast - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

WWW.MET.IE

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Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

The long range forecast they posted yesterday is based on the EPS as far as I know and sticks rigidly to it. That EPS commented would have been based on yesterday's 00z output.

[Continental Climate]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

It’s weakened from a place of ridiculous blocking though, some of the runs we were seeing were up there with the best possible solution that could have been plucked from the deepest cold spells in history. 

I don’t think it’s too much of a surprise we’ve moved a little away from that & towards something more realistic, not to mention the increased spread will be smoothing the means out in the extended somewhat. 

Nothing really to be concerned with at this stage, just a chopping & changing of the pattern but expectations still remain the same. 

Yep I agree, at no point has anyone said we are getting 2010 redux, which is what I suspect some people on here were expecting. I will be happy with 5-7 days of cold with a bit of snow on the ground and some freezing fog etc. In fact with my job I don't want 2010 as it was a ball ache driving in it. People need to temper their expectations and be happy with some wintry weather. 

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Running into Convective/ streamer activities there .

The last couple of icons and gfs have downgraded potential for Monday and Tuesday shoving the coldest uppers South of previous projections. We are almost back where we started here I.e non event. Interestingly the Met both here and UK never bought into it. Still time for upgrades though!

[Catacol]

NWP playing the Hokey Cokey, but all roads leading the same way. Wave break is imminent, vortex right now is stressed and about to split, momentum set to be maintained for another week or so. When default westerlies are de powered modelling always struggles to get the small things “right” so just go with the flow and let the pattern unwind. Cold air is coming from the NE and will set up shop and we have a strong block that is going to be in play. And the AO is turning negative…all of which means cold for the foreseeable. Calmest I’ve felt all winter and I’m just enjoying the model ride.

A moment to look further ahead. I mentioned before the belief that we will get enough from this pattern phase to keep the westerlies at bay once the less favourable MJO phases work their way through alongside the -AAM impacts that must inevitably follow a period of sharp amplification. Well - it’s good news tonight looking at these momentum patterns.

First of all we can see that AAM is now climbing once again - earlier than I expected. Whether we end up with a bit of wobble in this gradient we will wait to see - I wouldn’t be surprised… but the fact we are back on the way up is great news and note that the dip we have just gone through is far less deep than the one that toasted our early December cold.

This means the potential for a reignition of the amplification signal earlier than I expected, helped by a high orbit MJO that has stalled in phase 3, generally good news as 3 is better than 4

Overall this means wind flows have held on to a Nino imprint and from here I think we will be looking at finding a higher orbit again, especially if we get that +EAMT mid month.

The plain language conclusion here is that it won’t be long before our block - which will inevitably begin to weaken in around 10 days’ time - will get reamplfiied soon enough to prevent a flat pattern reestablishing as happened in December. The MetO has alluded to as much today, providing the dual scenario of heavy snow and heavy rain hand in hand - code for that wonderful knife edge scenario stuff where some get big dumpings… and given the shape of the current pattern I think we can hold on to a decent amount of confidence that most of the U.K. will be on the cold side of any intrusions as we hit the final third of the month. From there, stronger block again. I’d go with our Greeny block subsiding towards Iceland, wedges deflecting weak Atlantic intrusions, movement towards Scandy and then amplified retrogression back to Greenland early Feb.

It could all go wrong - of course it could - and if so I’ll flag it. But right now all remains on course.

 

[Ali1977]

T96 on the icon - high slightly further north and slightly stronger 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

T96 on the icon - high slightly further north and slightly stronger 

Not too strong.  we need something for streaming 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

T96 on the icon - high slightly further north and slightly stronger 

More notable push of heights through Greeny at T120 , and heights heading in from Alaska 

Edited January 6 by Ali1977

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

More notable push of heights through Greeny at T120 

Pacific ridge is now present as it was on the ECM, might not mean anything but hope it wouldn't lead to the Greenland heights being sucked away down the line.

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

More notable push of heights through Greeny at T120 , and heights heading in from Alaska 

Bigger push from Pacific (aka ECM issue) though and bit greener and lower high as such into Greenland…so think I preferred 12z

Edited January 6 by TSNWK

[Ali1977]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Bigger push from Pacific though and bit greener and lower high as such into Greenland…so think I preferred 12z

Yeah, let’s see what the pub runs gives us - we don’t want any steps towards a downgrade !! 

[nick sussex]

This cold pool from the east still isn’t settled . 

Still some differences with the UKV 3pm showing a much larger area of sub -10 air with -12 and -13 just off the se coast .

The others do show -10 850 values but a generally much smaller size cold pool.

 

Edited January 6 by nick sussex

[That ECM]

Just now, nick sussex said:

This cold pool from the east still isn’t settled . 

Still some differences with the UKV 3pm showing a much larger area of sub -10 air with -12 and -13 just off the se coast .

The others do show -10 850 values but generally much smaller size cold pool.

I’m fairly sure as you can be at this point that there will be reports of falling snow especially in the se. Not significant amounts. There maybe some on the south coast and trust me that is not a non event for these parts.

[Lukesluckybunch]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah, let’s see what the pub runs gives us - we don’t want any steps towards a downgrade !! 

haha you are relentless ali..!

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This cold pool from the east still isn’t settled . 

Still some differences with the UKV 3pm showing a much larger area of sub -10 air with -12 and -13 just off the se coast .

The others do show -10 850 values but a generally much smaller size cold pool.

 

Yer it’s crazy really at such a short time scale . -11 widely on the ukv and -12 in the far south east . 

Edited January 6 by ICE COLD

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer it’s crazy really at such a short time scale . -11 widely on the ukv and -12 in the far south east . 

That’s an ice day for south east quarter if it verifies 

[Tim Bland]

UKV has scattered snow showers into the south east on Monday 

[Snowman.]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

More notable push of heights through Greeny at T120 , and heights heading in from Alaska 

Not wholly surprised that the pacific ridge has only recently started getting modelled, the models always struggle with polar heights so this makes sense. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV has scattered snow showers into the south east on Monday 

Sleet near the coast ..

[Battleground Snow]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This cold pool from the east still isn’t settled . 

Still some differences with the UKV 3pm showing a much larger area of sub -10 air with -12 and -13 just off the se coast .

The others do show -10 850 values but a generally much smaller size cold pool.

 

Latest gfs is middle ground between the ukmo and ecm in regards to the cold pool.

 

[Metwatch]

Still a good signal there -NAO