Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[sorepaw1]

Just for lighthearted fun , hope none of you are having a winter break in Spain or parts of Southern Europe 

You might need ski's. 

I think there's strong support for widespread snow events cropping up all over the UK   from next weekend onwards. 

[E17boy]

I don’t care if you have been fed from a silver spoon

this is not a game

this is model watching from hell.
 

In the coming week ECM ICON, GFS, UKMO, GEM and PUBRUN will be completing the task of bringing cold and satisfying the coldie market.  

And at the end of all this whoever does not complete this one or all of you will be getting fired . Is that clear,

now go away and I will see you all back here on the 15th

 

 

[Wold Topper]

28 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Looks a bit of a mess to me at 180..not sure where this is going..maybe here comes the renewed push of heights 192

Enough already, what charts are you viewing? 

[lorenzo]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m not Tony but what he posted were the composite charts put together by the noaa cpc team for day 11 (he posted from the 4th and 6th jan ) 

the dates in the bottom corner are those that match closest to the composite chart. 

Thanks Nick - these are retro tools and a bit of a rewind to what we had at our disposal to guess between NWP runs.

Then in the evening, we had one page of postage stamps from EC Ens and no clusters, and had to derive on our own what looked like the cluster of choice.

The CPC charts above, the 12z changes, and then the duty forecaster input on the model blend for the day - it kinda told us the way and qualified our model thread analysis, or, enhanced it, or, gave us an idea which model they gave weight to.

These super analogs have now possibly been surpassed given the AGW age and artefacts, but when we are deep in a Canadian Warming ( Genuine) regime, last 4 years seeing Nov action on vortex ( previously named OPI),  and it envokes such rarity, it leads to looking at retro things / tollgates for incursions, and surpisingly results....

Edited January 6 by lorenzo

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Wold Topper said:

Enough already, what charts are you viewing? 

I thought it was going to develop into a proper gh by day 8/9 ..as it looked so good early on

[North Easterly Breeze]

Nice slice of -12 850s, Icon 2pm Monday. 

[festivalking]

The 18z gfs says

Wedges make Sledges 

[Hatewarmth]

25 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Again it's so far out at day 9 it begins..can we take this seriously...ecm wasn't in the mood..

The real cold has always been progged for the 15th for a week now. Patience 

21 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Pattern seems to be collapsing..left with a wedge of heights it looks like..we just about get away with it..with the southern extent of the jet

Is there a reason why you always try to contradict everyone else on here. Well at least that’s how your coming across 

[NewEra21]

Things have become much messier today compared to the much cleaner evolutions of a few days ago, just don’t want things to get any messier. Otherwise the real cold will struggle to make it to the UK

[Met4Cast]

Re: MOGREPS-G verification. 

EPS generally performs better than the Met Office models (inc UKM & MOGREPS) however the EPS generally outperform the ECM Hi-res by a greater degree than MOGREPS-G outperforms the UKMO. 

Essentially, UKMO & MOGREPS are often more closely related compared to the ECM Det & the EPS. 

Worth noting when viewing the ECM det & it’s ensembles. 

Edited January 6 by Met4Cast

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

The real cold has always been progged for the 15th for a week now. Patience 

Is there a reason why you always try to contradict everyone else on here. Well at least that’s how your coming across 

No sorry if I came across like that..I'm just discussing the models and what I'm seeing?

[Hatewarmth]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

Things have become much messier today compared to the much cleaner evolutions of a few days ago, just don’t want things to get any messier. Otherwise the real cold will struggle to make it to the UK

It’s just variations of the same general pattern. It’s impossible for models to be so accurate so far out hence why people are debating then

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

No sorry if I came across like that..I'm just discussing the models and what I'm seeing?

Ok maybe you just need to smile as that’s what the models are making most on here do

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

It’s just variations of the same general pattern. It’s impossible for models to be so accurate so far out hence why people are debating then

Ok maybe you just need to smile as that’s what the models are making most on here do

Oh I think it looks good also..just been burnt many times before,.I'm liking what I see from the gfs.just hoping the ecm can join the party too

[Mcconnor8]

19 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Control doesn't have a whiff of the shortwave development, so I imagine it will look close to the UKMO by 168 and potentially get the northernly in quicker 

Looks like it is kind of falling apart at T+174 unfortunately, at least quite a different evolution, but might get cold coming in from the Scandi direction later.

Edited January 6 by Mcconnor8

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo absolutely solid with that cold pool Monday 

18z run @sheikhy

[lorenzo]

Everything beyond 96hrs right now on 00z/06z/12/18z is pure chaos, why.. that filament.

It's okay - the direction of travel is solid, this kinda break and what it delivers is programmed, it's just he inter-run flavours to enjoy.

We cannot see what the ECM rolls with, but can infer given later output.

GFS break vs Ec h5 at 500

UKMO 168 remains chart of the day in amongst all the noise.

[Kentspur]

18 minutes ago, Purga said:

Blimey - another easterly for the south at day 11 !

So much better than a failed dry  Northerly which gets threatened by the Iberian high everytime it attempts to move south of the Midlands think im going to stick to the snow potential in the reliable period Monday for now too far away still to know about this period! Exciting times fellow Southern/Southeasterners

[January Snowstorm]

Actually very poor from the 18z control!! Worse than op at this point with no proper heights over Greenland 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Looks like it is kind of falling apart at T+174 unfortunately.

Yeh, mean looks okay still 

[Mark wheeler]

Cmon the Mighty Navgem , you've got this .

[North Easterly Breeze]

What an absolute slog it is to get proper cold into this little island of ours.

These runs are starting to give me nightmares, I nearly called the wife ‘12z’ earlier..

[Met4Cast]

The GEFS appear to be holding that shortwave further west at T192 compared with the 12z, as a result colder air is less well aligned, perhaps just a little delayed.

Edited January 6 by Met4Cast

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo absolutely solid with that cold pool Monday 

18z run @sheikhy

Best for us by far!!the -10 line goes into yorkie aswell!!!

[Bradley in Kent]

As soon as the Atlantic quietens down models really start to struggle and hence FI gets brought much further forward. 

We've got a sunny high coming in with some possible snow showers for Eastern areas. The 18z GFS looks more positive up to day 5, which I feel we ought to take in the meantime. 

Get the heights in, then on to the next step. 

I don't think I'll have the headspace to chase all the way to week after next!

[markw2680]

I really really don’t wanna be a downer in here but I feel the longer this high sits over the top of us the more chance of it going belly up. Like I keep seeing comments like snow events from next weekend on, it’s like a week away minimum for that, that’s plenty of time for things to go wrong. I’m hopeful for some white stuff early next week for some as models cannot be trusted for a week away. Yes it may all count down like clockwork and I hope it does but equally don’t hang your hats on it as things can change at the flick of a switch. Only takes that low to the sw to play up or the dreaded high south of us. Etc etc.