Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ladyofthestorm]

More experienced model watchers will be pretty happy with the way these models are churning out colder weather prospects.

Remember the mantra the trend is your friend.  All roads lead to cold and very cold. 

 

Enjoy this week. The colder weather is coming in from the North end of week , late January looks interesting.

 

Who remembers the doom and gloom from last week when the SSW wasnt quite what they expected.  Look what's happened , it's even better! 

 

.

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Small pocket of -14 uppers into the extreme south east on the latest 06z ukmo,

Good luck to you guys, I think some places may get a fair few CMS under  streamers.

 

Dont be surprised to see a few of those streamers get into our area mate!!if not then maybe some light snow showers!!!

[bluearmy]

Looking at gfs ops it seems to me that the strat influence into the trop can be viewed as follows 

we have a stretching spv from svaalbard/barents to Greenland. We then see a warming headed into the Arctic from the pacific side which splits the vortex to Asia/canada. We see our amplified Atlantic at that same time. 
the split is not maintained high up which allows the n American segment to rush back east across the Atlantic to rejoin the main vortex in the svaalbard/e Greenland. area.  That will tie in with the current jet streak in fi 

As Aaron reflected earlier,  this whole movement of the atmosphere looks heavily coupled between strat and trop. Judging which is leading becomes quite difficult. 

[E17boy]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Maybe we should put some numbers to the language so that when some shout “a deep freeze is now off the table” we know what we are talking about.

As I see it taking into account usual U.K. winter synoptics:

850s of 0 = Cool

850s of -4 = Cold (has to be, given at -4 snow is in the mix)

850s of -8 = Very Cold (rare, and snow over rain nearly ever time)

850s of -12 = Severe Cold (very rare in truth, if you want lots of these go to Canada!)

850s of -16 = Exceptional Cold (how often in the last 50 years?)

 

On this basis I will say again - we are looking at a spell of very cold weather off and on for the extended. At times it will be cool to cold, and at best we might hit the odd moment of severe cold if the dice roll kindly. And snow is in the mix.

Do some folk need to get realistic about U.K. winter? We will never hit continental levels of freeze potential.

Morning all

Very good point from catacol . I think what it is that because we have experienced the severe cold of 2010 and 2018 that has been laid as a reaching point in order to match these years.  However like we saw last December it does not have to go to that extreme for us here to get a good snow cover. Here in NE London where I am last year the evening of December 11th brought a fair amount of snow to the SE from a feature that came from the channel. That snow then laid for the next 5 days and the cold at that time was not as cold as 2010 or 2018. So with the models showing a cold or at times very cold theme in the days to come is a good start.

Anyway having said the above I know a lot of people are concerned about the amount of snow in the setup. Yes a lot of dry weather is on the cards but as many have said features will appear and there will be surprises. 
 

I myself am now looking and very much hoping that we get this high to move to Scandinavia that will help open doors to tap in to some cold from the east or north east hence allowing a better chance of snow. I have got my fingers crossed for this so let’s see how the next days pan out. 
 

Taking all the above still early days so as always caution is not not forgotten.

ARE WE GETTING CLOSER IN FINDING OUR WINTER WONDERLAND 

have a nice Sunday all

regards.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Dont be surprised to see a few of those streamers get into our area mate!!if not then maybe some light snow showers!!!

Oh yeh, there will be some lighter ones for us from the wash if they make it, but lower heights and colder temperatures down south could make them pretty beefy

[That ECM]

[Jason M]

Whilst I've never bought into the hype surrounding this cold spell (too far out into FI) the way the GFS opp deals with things post 192 hours is just ludicrous. 

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at gfs ops it seems to me that the strat influence into the trop can be viewed as follows 

we have a stretching spv from svaalbard/barents to Greenland. We then see a warming headed into the Arctic from the pacific side which splits the vortex to Asia/canada. We see our amplified Atlantic at that same time. 
the split is not maintained high up which allows the n American segment to rush back east across the Atlantic to rejoin the main vortex in the svaalbard/e Greenland. area.  That will tie in with the current jet streak in fi 

As Aaron reflected earlier,  this whole movement of the atmosphere looks heavily coupled between strat and trop. Judging which is leading becomes quite 

So  are you saying basically that  the absence  of a proper split might be what leads  to wedges  rather  than a robust Greenland  high. ? I would love a  long lasting freeze courtesy of such a high,  but if a high risk high reward  situation leads to  a  couple  of  days of snow I'd be happy with that. At some point it's about getting the snow in

[Midlands Ice Age]

My thoughts on the current situation after reading back through the last 4 to 6 pages.  (for what its worth!!)

I see Blue has beaten me too it    but anyways....

4 days ago now we saw the start up of the second warming of the year, after the telecommunications had been proved pretty accurate.

No charts yet today of the (SSW's/ warming) status yet today           BUT

We do know that 3 days ago all the charts were lined up (GFS climbed into bed last) and that they all aligned along with all the telecommunications you could want.

Then ECM was first to wander. By  coincidence  It appears it has the best (most reactive at any rate) of all the suites to any 'warming' impact in the strat. I might use the term SSW, but a warming of the strat (whilst it is in a weakened state will have very similar effects as those produced by a full on SSW), so I will use interchangeably from now on in this note.

So ECMWF picked up a change first, and started to show the development of a huge PACIFIC high on the Russian side first.  At day 10 I think.

This straight away pushed more of the vortex back in towards Canada, and started to leave Greenland less prone to our  retrogressing high as suggested by the telecommunications tendencies.

The next day the ECMWF  produced a different position for the Pacific high, but with similar results for the Atlantic. Also some of the other models changed slightly;  by now the 'SSW' had become stronger, and some of the other models started to 'wobble', but were not yet being picked up as strong enough to deflect the strong telecommunications  effect.

So on a further day (yesterday , I think) and the ECM produces charts showing a huge Pacific high deflecting the PV back over towards its natural home, (unfortunately Greenland it seems) and try as they might,  it overrides every telecommunications signal. By now more of the  other models started the 'wobbling' process, as the initial effects  of the SSW started to move down into the troposphere.  

Onto the here and now - still more of the models move over to the ECMWF way of looking at things, and by now the ECMWF thinks that things have moved so far that they are irreversible and that the Northern hemisphere will revert back to its default status, with the loss of the high level blocking. 

I am not discounting the fact that the ECM may be overreacting to the signals, so all may not yet be lost., 

 

However no new telecommunications signals had appeared during the above events. The only thing that changed was the early appearance of the SSW  (strat warming). It is my belief that no new 'teles' appeared and that it  is this that has changed the outlook.

If you remember, before this event ( a week ago)  when the latest warming was picked up it was thought that it would make its presence felt by the end of next week (not this), and this was hoped that it would lengthen the period of cold by the then draining cold outlook. Maybe we underestimated its abilities to rapidly impact the troposphere.

Well once again it has not worked in favour of our little bit of the world, whilst other areas (North America again!!) are plunged into cold.  Does luck come into it? I do not know but it sure feels like it.

The thing is that there must have been some other ' drivers' at work causing the rapid onset of the new SSW.

Sorry no charts for the above since  I have to go out now, and I  felt it would have been too long a post. I hope you agree that it is a reasonable summary of the events -. even if you do not agree with the conclusions.

Lastly - the big question is. Is the ECMWF correct?    We have not been able to witness this sort of balancing act between the strat and trop before at this level of detail..

I find it fascinating.

MIA

Edited January 7 by Midlands Ice Age

[Rob 79812010]

28 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Never?

Surely there's potential for deep cold across UK, if only short lived?

1981 1987 1991 2010 2013 2018

And 86!

[Harveyslugger]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

And 86!

And 2024!

[Ice Day]

The Control is looking great at 186

Again, a good improvement on the mean vs 0z at the same time

 

In fact, if pressed I'd say the mean is excellent.

[Anthony Burden]

25 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Are those two linked? I doubt the Met Office mentioned GFS. 

I would imagine all high tech solutions are studied including GFS.

[That ECM]

You would expect the gfs to edge closer to ecm or at least stay the same, yet the mean suggests it goes further away.

[Beanz]

31 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

-10 hpa showing it’s hand over the UK that does not happen much in this country the met office has stated that severe weather looks a small bet,my version is that the more we see those -10hpa temperatures a loft the greater the chance.

Your posts are quite vague, can I suggest if you make claims related to certain charts or to the MetO statements, that post links to support your commentary - otherwise it just means nothing to those reading it

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The Control is looking great at 186

Again, a good improvement on the mean vs 0z at the same time

 

In fact, if pressed I'd say the mean is excellent.

Timberrrrr, only a few less cold options by day 8 there

[The Beast From The East]

18 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning all

Very good point from catacol . I think what it is that because we have experienced the severe cold of 2010 and 2018 that has been laid as a reaching point in order to match these years.  However like we saw last December it does not have to go to that extreme for us here to get a good snow cover. Here in NE London where I am last year the evening of December 11th brought a fair amount of snow to the SE from a feature that came from the channel. That snow then laid for the next 5 days and the cold at that time was not as cold as 2010 or 2018. So with the models showing a cold or at times very cold theme in the days to come is a good start.

Anyway having said the above I know a lot of people are concerned about the amount of snow in the setup. Yes a lot of dry weather is on the cards but as many have said features will appear and there will be surprises. 
 

I myself am now looking and very much hoping that we get this high to move to Scandinavia that will help open doors to tap in to some cold from the east or north east hence allowing a better chance of snow. I have got my fingers crossed for this so let’s see how the next days pan out. 
 

Taking all the above still early days so as always caution is not not forgotten.

ARE WE GETTING CLOSER IN FINDING OUR WINTER WONDERLAND 

have a nice Sunday all

regards.

Great post and simular to what i was thinking about writing but i don't need to worry now.  The change to  colder weather weather has already started so enjoy.  Like in this post from E17boy wrote about the snow we got on that one evening down here in the SE it was not even forcasted a week out on the national weather then it popped up a couple of days out and produced the heaviest snow I'd seen in years over about 5 hours and although it wasn't expected to be that cold it stuck around for a good 7 days and temps were more around the 0 degree mark for the week after even though temps were originally forcast to be around 5 degrees.... As we here often on here, get the cold in first..... it can be a stubborn beast to move once in place... 

Edited January 7 by The Beast From The East

[markw2680]

Omg people get a grip. Wake up look on here to see downgrade, poor charts, egg on face etc etc. come straight out in a mood. Look on the actual models and think its variations which are to be expected when looking5/6/7-10 days away! Come back in here and go to second from last page to see….upgrades, backtracks etc etc. you get the gist, why can’t these certain ones chill out. Every single model run will differ in one way or another and yet WE ALL know this.

the cold is pretty much in our doorstep with possible snow for some. Longer term it’s dryer it’s colder, who knows what’s going to happen later next week, nobody knows certainly not the god damn GFS

[Ali1977]

BIIIIIG upgrade in the mean at day 9 

Edited January 7 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS - corker!!!

[Malarky]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Dont be surprised to see a few of those streamers get into our area mate!!if not then maybe some light snow showers!!!

I’ll be looking out of the living room towards Skeggy and the Wash with excitement mate!

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Timberrrrr, only a few less cold options by day 8 there

That's a solid set right there.  The mean improvement continues out to 204.

Well, is this a classic GFS garden path or a rarer ECM fail.  We'll know more this evening I suppose.

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So  are you saying basically that  the absence  of a proper split might be what leads  to wedges  rather  than a robust Greenland  high. ? I would love a  long lasting freeze courtesy of such a high,  but if a high risk high reward  situation leads to  a  couple  of  days of snow I'd be happy with that. At some point it's about getting the snow in

Could be although I’d also muse that if it is the trop leading the dance then as the trop modelling later in week 2 isn’t going to be accurate, why would the strat be ?? 

[Singularity]

33 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Data is clear. ECM beats GFS hands down at 120h. But at 240h the gap is slight to very slight. At 192 and lower ECM holds the whip hand most of the time - though not all of the time! At 240h they are both valuable.

I wish we had error measures for each of the major regimes plus +AO / -AO. For all we know ECM could be excellent at the much more common +AO but not top dog for -AO. Same with the NAO.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - corker!!!

stonker-ripper and now corker.Were you expecting them to be a bit worse? I was tbh.

Edited January 7 by That ECM