Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[IDO]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Thats the thing of course, I don't want us to have to rely on an Arctic high to help get the job done, fickle beasts that are often poorly modelled. I'd rather the Atlantic profile was good enough to get the job done first time, even if it does mean to start with its a lower risk of big snowfalls.

No one wants to rely on the Arctic high being modelled correctly; as you say, it is tough to pindown post-D8. But on this run, from D8, it was a big help, with a good axis (N/S) forcing the trough south towards Scandi and sending that cold air to block the westerly push:

When the axis changes to E/W later in the run (see above), we see that it becomes a hindrance, forcing the tPV towards Canada. A signal from the mean lately. Lots of puzzle pieces, from shortwaves to Pacific ridging to Arctic highs, to split-energy, to favourable wedges!

[bluearmy]

Gefs around days 8/9 not as good as the 06z with the amplitude upstream nor the trough downstream- but more than acceptable 

 higher heights Arctic  n of canada - which could mean many things as the run progresses 

 

 

, 

[Ali1977]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Gefs around days 8/9 not as good as the 06z with the amplitude upstream nor the trough downstream- but more than acceptable 

 higher heights Arctic  n of canada - which could mean many things as the run progresses 

 

 

, 

Hopefully a change that the op is picking up on - where as the GEM and UKMO have already got it worked out. The ECM has been a party pooper for a week, if that follows either the GEM or UKMO we’ll be laughing

[Spah1]

34 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Exactly! People really do need to learn to stop getting low and high over every run. The means are rock solid backed up by the met of battleground developing and like Tamara mentioned earlier after this developments to the north east really need to be watched going into Feb.

All is incredibly positive atm the cold and snow is coming im almost certain it’s just how long and how much now!

What a fantastic winter this is! Especially from a learning perspective!

Completely disagree. 
 

Getting low and high on each run is part of the fun. Imagine if the models verified 100% from day 10 this forum wouldn’t exist. 
 

Should we not follow our football teams highs and lows of the season and just look at the league table at the end of the season? 

Edited January 7 by Spah1

[Gypo]

Tomorrows ECM 12z says 'HOLD MY BEER'

As far as I remember from the charts and as a poster has mentioned above, we were always looking at around the 14th/15th for any real cold spell to materialize once the HP had set in place.

Flip flopping is something we are used to, just like disappointment, so let's not get ahead of ourselves just in case the usual happens and somehow a more zonal pattern takes hold.

[Scott Ingham]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, so far, only from a learning perspective, as not one single snowflake has yet fallen for many of us.

Hahaha! Never a truer word said let’s come back to this in 10 days time then. 
Deal?

[IanT]

Is this what was referred to earlier this afternoon as “…the South East event tomorrow”..?

[lassie23]

Just now, IanT said:

Is this what was referred to earlier this afternoon as “…the South East event tomorrow”..?

i wasn't aware that patchy sleet was a weather event these days.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

No one wants to rely on the Arctic high being modelled correctly; as you say, it is tough to pindown post-D8. But on this run, from D8, it was a big help, with a good axis (N/S) forcing the trough south towards Scandi and sending that cold air to block the westerly push:

When the axis changes to E/W later in the run (see above), we see that it becomes a hindrance, forcing the tPV towards Canada. A signal from the mean lately. Lots of puzzle pieces, from shortwaves to Pacific ridging to Arctic highs, to split-energy, to favourable wedges!

As long as we can keep the Arctic high in place to some extent we are always going to be in with a shout that it forces things more favourably for us, I suppose as a veteran of 20 years now I'm a little battle weary when it comes to Arctic highs playing a good role, I've literally seen it a handful of times work out (of course when it does, it tends to make things very tasty).

Either way, the models tonight are overall very good still, and if the worst case is a frosty high, then compared to the last month I'll gladly accept it.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Completely disagree. 
 

Getting low and high on each run is part of the fun. Imagine if the models verified 100% from day 10 this forum wouldn’t exist. 
 

Should we not follow our football teams highs and lors of the season and just look at the league table at the end of the season? 

From an emotional and passion perspective yeah I agree and I’m a cold lover and love the rollercoaster just as much as you do!

But from a scientific perspective and this is a science at the end of the day I’d disagree as it’s harder to maintain a calm rational head and makes it confusing for newbies us who are trying to learn the science. Plus it’s plain wrong to assume every operational run is correct it’s better to start with means and ensembles and look for any change in direction in them. 

All just my opinion of course! You have yours and I respect it.

[Tim Bland]

Hold the front page! Could be an insane, historical weather event in the south east tomorrow afternoon… involving scattered Wintery flurries, with the outside chance of 1cm on the downs ! 

[IanT]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hahaha! Never a truer word said let’s come back to this in 10 days time then. 
Deal?

You’ve got 8 days @Scott Ingham…

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hahaha! Never a truer word said let’s come back to this in 10 days time then. 
Deal?

Absolutely.  

Seriously though, I maintain confidence that this winter will deliver - it was always more likely to be in the second half, just given ENSO and eQBO combination.

[Daniel*]

ECM 12z will be one of the most crucial runs so far - critically important we see a movement. Buckle up folks

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

better run a marathon then 

Or turn into Forrest Gump! 

But at least the GFS 12Z doesn't predict a full-blown zonal onslaught: 

T+120:    

T+240:    

T+384:    

Anyway --  my vindaloo's going down well! 

[bluearmy]

The 12z geps eject the n Atlantic ridge rapidly through to the pacific side days 10/12. Leaves us in a cold/cool zonal pattern 

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

ECM 12z will be one of the most crucial runs so far - critically important we see a movement. Buckle up folks

People say this every day 

the eps suite is more important than the op days 8/10. The op is important days 5/8. We want to see if settle down in line with the Ukmo and gem 

[Continental Climate]

7 minutes ago, IanT said:

Is this what was referred to earlier this afternoon as “…the South East event tomorrow”..?

yes our winters have become so desperate that THIS is classed as an event!!!! 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hold the front page! Could be an insane, historical weather event in the south east tomorrow afternoon… involving scattered Wintery flurries, with the outside chance of 1cm on the downs ! 

Has a red warning been issued for this yet?

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, IanT said:

You’ve got 8 days @Scott Ingham…

I’m counting them dowwwwwwn!!!

[Purga]

0.5mm of sleet is now headline news on the radio with one pundit asking us to look out for vulnerable neighbours & relatives!

Apparently a ‘severe’ spell of weather is incoming. I mean, I ask you. 

in the meantime GFS Op maintains the cold throughout the entire run. Noteworthy but hardly ‘severe’.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM 12z will be one of the most crucial runs so far - critically important we see a movement. Buckle up folks

Have to agree daniel..hasn't fancied it for days now,but looking at the gem I'm expecting something half decent

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z geps eject the n Atlantic ridge rapidly through to the pacific side days 10/12. Leaves us in a cold/cool zonal pattern 

People say this every day 

the eps suite is more important than the op days 8/10. The op is important days 5/8. We want to see if settle down in line with the Ukmo and gem 

This is the most sensible post today, if anyone is new to this game that last paragraph from Blue is really excellent advice. The eps suite btw up to now is very good! We’d take it any winter!

[MattStoke]

14 minutes ago, IanT said:

Is this what was referred to earlier this afternoon as “…the South East event tomorrow”..?

Yes, because we know computer models model shower activity perfectly.

[PiscesStar]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hahaha! Never a truer word said let’s come back to this in 10 days time then. 
Deal?

I can vouch for that not one single flake in this south Eastern corner. 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, PiscesStar said:

I can vouch for that not one single flake in this south Eastern corner. 

You have a chance of maybe 11 flakes tomorrow