Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Allseasons-Si]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree 

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic.  Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen 

I thought that they form in an arctic airmass ?,that is why i posted it because it looks like one to me

a snippet from John holmes:-

Polar Lows tend to form, in the area of our interest, in a north or north west airflow. It is possible for it to occur in the Norwegian Sea in a north east flow but is less common. One area they seem to favour is just south of Iceland.

 

[Snowman.]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree 

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic.  Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen 

2015? Jan or Feb, hard to recall. Formed off West Coast of Scotland and travelled SE, the buzz that night was incredible.

Edited January 7 by Snowman.

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON looks lovely at 120..a shift west with the high..not as much lagging over Europe

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree 

That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic.  Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen 

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

[sheikhy]

Excellent icon 18z!!looks to be clean into greenland at 120 hours!!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ICON looks lovely at 120..a shift west with the high..not as much lagging over Europe

Yes more scope for the high to be sucked up and link with the Pacific high as per gem showed.

Just day 5 now

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Excellent icon 18z!!looks to be clean into greenland at 120 hours!!

More of a push I reckon!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

THE greatest rain to to thundersnow event ever to this day for me!!if that is the one you are on about!!!!was like a wall of snow coming towards me that afternoon after ot started as rain!!!!got close to 10 cms in couple of hours!!!!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

THE greatest rain to to thundersnow event ever to this day for me!!if that is the one you are on about!!!!was like a wall of snow coming towards me that afternoon after ot started as rain!!!!got close to 10 cms in couple of hours!!!!!

Me in redditch at the time had about 2 inches that froze immediately after and we had mint sledging the next day i was about 21 so 19 years ago

[Alexis]

Here's the 2011 polar low on a chart. It's an offshoot of a main depression on this occasion (don't know if that's typical) and it formed in the Greenland Sea.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Me in redditch at the time had about 2 inches that froze immediately after and we had mint sledging the next day i was about 21 so 19 years ago

It was a beauty i tell ya!!!!!had lovely glittery frosted snow on the ground the next day with the blue sky sunshine!!looked stunning!!!!

[FetchCB]

4 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

This one? 

Not sure it was a polar low though 

 

[sheikhy]

Just now, FetchCB said:

This one? 

Not sure it was a polar low though 

 

I think the one you posted is a different event!!the one you have posted is when the m11 got crippled im pretty sure

[SollyOlly]

36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Bit mild by midday, though.

WINTER IS OVER!! 

[The 500]

When I see images like these I can’t help but think …..it’s coming,,, 

already planning a …..to save diesel on my car “ Boss…. Sorry I’m snowed in …. Not allowed to drive….health and safety “  

interesting times…. We are now less than a week away …..from staring at Lampost snow ,

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

OK i know i started the polar low story from the Ec control but let's not go down the polar low history

Not much in the ICON IMO but the one thing i see is a more squashed neg tilted low in the Atlantic allowing heights to migrate west better.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

Wasn't that Jan 2004, Birmingham came to as big a standstill as 7th feb 1991 when it was an inch or 2 as opposed to not far off a foot.

wasn't the last one Jan 2015?

[Mark wheeler]

12 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

Is that the one that started as rain for a few minutes then boom, snowmaggedon ?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think the one you posted is a different event!!the one you have posted is when the m11 got crippled im pretty sure

The M11 'event' was unprecedented 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Do you remember the one in 2002/3 one Jan afternoon it swept south bought mayhem to midlands south rushour

was it not 28th Jan 2004? my location didn't do so well, not much luck with that one

[PsychedelicTony]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Ec control throws a polar low in the mix

Once again... That is not a polar low

[Kentspur]

32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

THE greatest rain to to thundersnow event ever to this day for me!!if that is the one you are on about!!!!was like a wall of snow coming towards me that afternoon after ot started as rain!!!!got close to 10 cms in couple of hours!!!!!

Jan 2004 remember it well 5c and light rain suddenly turned to snow as temp dropped to 0c leaving a few cms Early Jan 2003 was a bigger fall here though we got a Thames streamer

Edited January 7 by Kentspur

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Once again... That is not a polar low

polar low, isn't it like a 'runner' feature, but north to south in the flow, rather than west to east

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

was it not 28th Jan 2004? my location didn't do so well, not much luck with that one

It was 28th Jan 2004 and the reason your area didn't do quite aswell is because it lost alot of intensity over the pennines and peak district but really intensified around derby/Nottingham and for those further south. The heavy rain washed away any salt on the road and carnage ensued.

[blizzard81]

May as well add to the good trend of today with the latest mogreps.