Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

Anybody have an idea of 2m temps from the ecm run?

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Drifter said:

My ignore list is growing this morning even with positive runs! What are people’s expectations exactly?!

 

Some won’t be happy until we see a return to snowball earth and even then I’m sure they’d find a reason to complain. 

Great modelling across the board this morning, the GEFS extend the cold (using -5C isotherm as the guide) another day or two with a tighter clustering of cold members. 

Details chop and change but the broad direction of travel remains the same. The GEM & UKMO are pick of the bunch for me. 

[Kasim Awan]

These runs look bldy awesome for snow.

[winterof79]

Getting close to moving onto the regionals later in week as imbyism seems to have crept in recently.Just hanging on to cold? really peeps 

[Harveyslugger]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

My ignore list is growing this morning even with positive runs! What are people’s expectations exactly?!

 

People expecting an ice age

[TSNWK]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

These runs look bldy awesome for snow.

Surely scope for the trough from the north ecm day 7 onwards  to drop about 200 miles further south so that we can all have some fun. Pretty please 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Surely scope for the trough from the north ecm day 7 onwards  to drop about 200 miles further south so that we can all have some fun. Pretty please 

Yea that's been the trend this morning..to move it southwest,we need a correction South and east..still time of course!

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Getting close to moving onto the regionals later in week as imbyism seems to have crept in recently.Just hanging on to cold? really peeps 

I have noticed the same hahah! These models are great for Yorkshire and that’s all that matters for me atm and you I’m guessing lol 

[Garthvader]

1 minute ago, Jacob said:

Can anybody update me on the last 2 days

Chaotic 

[nick sussex]

I wouldn’t be relying on an Arctic high to push the troughing south . They’re notoriously difficulty to model.

So at the moment there’s still uncertainty as to what will happen in the medium term .

I don’t take the outputs at face value and always factor in margin for error.

Looking out for where things can go wrong and not expecting everything to run smoothly seems a good way to approach UK winter synoptics.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Cracking ecm mean!

[Eagle Eye]

Colder temps don't mean better chance of snow, sometimes the opposite. Sure it's not looking like record breaking cold but it's looking like a cold and snowy pattern is very much possible. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. 

[Beanz]

19 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

It’s so exciting I can barely contain myself….

Beginners mistake, that’s a weather app not model output

[IDO]

The ens for London suggests good support for the ECM OP pattern, and as other models have also moved that way, we have above-average confidence that the mean/OP have the basic pattern. The OP is on the colder side of the ens D5-7, but within the spread; London:

~ECM mean, D0-10:

 

No complaints from me.

[JamieF89]

11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I have noticed the same hahah! These models are great for Yorkshire and that’s all that matters for me atm and you I’m guessing lol 

And for me in Scotland

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

No complaints from me.

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

The ens for London suggests good support for the ECM OP pattern, and as other models have also moved that way, we have above-average confidence that the mean/OP have the basic pattern. The OP is on the colder side of the ens D5-7, but within the spread; London:

~ECM mean, D0-10:

 

No complaints from me.

Should the Scandi trough verify precisely like that, it should be enough for a cold spell nationwide of at least a few days - however, there remains sufficient margin for error in southern/western areas from a synoptics point of view to avoid deep cold in these parts.

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Looks like the GFS finally splits the strat vortex in FI btw

 

Not quite not continuing to post a displacement tech reversal - the strat is reversed top to bottom above around 75N prior to that 

looking like the spv at 10hpa will become quite stretched post day at a low latitude and a further warming could then split it 

last two ec ops have been displacement ssw at days 9/10

57 minutes ago, JimBob said:

The next 2 to 3 days look the coldest for the south in the reliable time frame, just looks standard winter fare, even some double figure temperatures creeping in on some models at ten days time! 

Yes - the next cold wave arrives later in the weekend 

you may consider that unreliable - you may not 

[sheikhy]

Beautiful ecm mean!!!!!

[Tim Bland]

GEM may be a bit more risky but it’s a lot more rewarding…

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM may be a bit more risky but it’s a lot more rewarding…

Wow just the 10-15cm

[Chesil View]

Models seem to be converging on a cold out come around day6/7 which is still too far out for comfort but definitely a step in the right direction.

Snow chances will be governed by day to day developments much closer to the time if the reality of the general forecast pattern materialises.

Still some  scope for milder nudging air into the south on current output which could lead to high risk/high reward snow chances here but that would be highly dependent on nuances much closer to the time.

Ideally now we want to see the models firming up or even upgrading the pattern on which they appear to be converging, over the next few days. That would decrease Nick Sussex's very sensible margin for error factor.

Edited January 8 by Chesil View

[Penrith Snow]

The models seem to tilt the flow from straight Northerly to North Westerly in FI while maintaining the depth of cold.

This is good news for most of us as a straight Northerly is usually dry unless you live near the beach in Scarborough, North Westerlies push precipitation much further inland.

The whole evolution is similar to the pre Christmas cold spell in December 2009.

Andy

[saintkip]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM may be a bit more risky but it’s a lot more rewarding…

That’s what we want, forget weeks of frost and dry, bring on the snow

[Penrith Snow]

43 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Some won’t be happy until we see a return to snowball earth and even then I’m sure they’d find a reason to complain. 

Great modelling across the board this morning, the GEFS extend the cold (using -5C isotherm as the guide) another day or two with a tighter clustering of cold members. 

Details chop and change but the broad direction of travel remains the same. The GEM & UKMO are pick of the bunch for me. 

If Netweather  existed 20,000 years ago some members would be complaining about how thin the glaciers were south of the M4 corridor compared to up north!