Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[That ECM]

Gfs says I’m waxing not waining.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

Cold air still on target and the Azores low is fragmenting with a weather front pushing north into southern England. Where these two meet could result in a lot of snow.

 

Worth noting that the surface high is not present on this run.

yes lower height across the south has created a cut off high over Greenland.

the lack of complexity over Scandinavia loos suspect to me, a large round area of low pressure 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just now, Continental Climate said:

Yep that could be our next hurdle to get over if that low exerts itself a bit more. Some people will say its a potential snowmaker etc but i view it as a danger to our cold and want it gone ASAP 

To be honest having the low parked west of Iberia is hardly going to be doing us any favours, having it fragment and engage with the developing Euro trough is a good think because it will pull the trough southwards as well as bring the risk of snow to southern areas.

[NorthYorksWeather]

GEM is a tad slower bringing the cold air southwards at 168hrs but the main course is not far away to our north.

 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Which way? Good or bad?

We’ve had a few runs across the models that have been upgrades - I think it’s time we saw a step back the other way. You can’t expect the output to keep upgrading. It tends to swing a little, even if the overall direction of travel is set

[mulzy]

The UKMO is the best solution at day 6.  We do not want too much westward momentum of the low heights to the north.  That will lead to SW formation that may cut off the cold air.

Edited January 8 by mulzy

[Gowon]

GFS looking a bit West based

[That ECM]

Here comes the very small risk the met mention.

 JFF

Edited January 8 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

Hoping the ECM

follows the UKMO , although the GFS is v close to a monster snow event from the SW - and still has blocking which could help out as we go on. 

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS and GEM at 180h quite similar with the rounded shape of the trough centred over Scandinavia.
Both might get very interesting with the Lows coming from the Azores moving toward us, and toward the cold trough.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

The UKMO is the best solution at day 6.  we do not want too much westward momentum of the low heights to the north.  That will lead to SW formation that may cut off the cold air.

Indeed

don’t need very high risk/reward charts this far out 

concerned at the retrogressive swing west that all the models are playing with because it prevents the trough digging south of the U.K. with the really cold uppers 

[MJB]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Hoping the ECM

follows the UKMO , although the GFS is v close to a monster snow event from the SW - and still has blocking which could help out as we go on. 

HIGH risk with a fantastic reward eh?  

[Ali1977]

️️️️

[Harsh Climate]

I can smell a major snow event coming to North Midlands/Northern England with rain/sleet to south according to GFS

Would follow on the general theme from over the last several years 

[Ice Day]

This will probably be a short-term downgrade for maybe a longer-term upgrade at day 8. 

If the low to our south west behaves, it could really open the floodgates.  This is the high-risk, high-reward scenario so often talked about on here.  If it goes wrong you end up in mild south westerlies, but if it goes right.......!

[reef]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Indeed

don’t need very high risk/reward charts this far out 

concerned at the retrogressive swing west that all the models are playing with because it prevents the trough digging south of the U.K. with the really cold uppers 

It also kills off the chance of shower activity for a lot of areas as what was a direct northerly / north-easterly is now  a slack north-westerly. Not bad for Scotland, the north-west and Cheshire gap, but everywhere else is cold and dry.

The low approaching from the south-west will kill it off quickly too.

[bluearmy]

Just now, MJB said:

HIGH risk with a fantastic reward eh?  

Yes but you’d want to see this adjustment at day 4/5 rather than day 8/9. Because the margins at day 4/5 aren’t going to be large whereas days 8/9 could easily be hundreds of miles out come verification 

[Lukesluckybunch]

North of the m4 stuff on the gfs at 204

[KTtom]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

I can smell a major snow event coming to North Midlands/Northern England with rain/sleet to south according to GFS

Would follow on the general theme from over the last several years 

Bring it on..I havent the appetite for another dry cold spell, lets see some action!

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes but you’d want to see this adjustment at day 4/5 rather than day 8/9. Because the margins at day 4/5 aren’t going to be large whereas days 8/9 could easily be hundreds of miles out come verification 

At this range its's merely JFF

M4 North getting hammered 

LP moving along the channel, a classic event

M4 North event before moving off East 

Edited January 8 by MJB

[mountsbaysnow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

️️️️

Rain for us snow starved cornish  

[Ali1977]

Just now, MJB said:

At this range its's merely JFF

M4 North getting hammered 

Much of the south - as you say JFF 

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

This will probably be a short-term downgrade for maybe a longer-term upgrade at day 8. 

If the low to our south west behaves, it could really open the floodgates.  This is the high-risk, high-reward scenario so often talked about on here.  If it goes wrong you end up in mild south westerlies, but if it goes right.......!

GFS has much better orientation of the low to the SW for extended cold, as it sweeps the low into France by D9. Massive snowstorm for the south. What could possibly go wrong

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Much of the south - as you say JFF 

Would be a 24 hour blizzard north of the M4 and 24 hour soaking south of it lol

Edited January 8 by Mcconnor8

[Ali1977]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Would be a 24 hour blizzard north of the M4 and 24 hour soaking south of it lol

Cold air coming back - it would be a historic event