Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Andy8472]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Back to the SSW again? ever since the beginning of December...that certainly waxes and wanes. 

Yeah it's a grind, will it won't it 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Word of caution..mean nowhere near as good!

[phil nw.]

Those that want more than cold and dry then something along the lines of gfs battleground snow will likely please the eye.This is something that has been suggested in the gefs.

It is high risk that some milder air will get in further south but that's the risk to get a decent fall of snow.If we can get a re-building of the block then the cold may not leave for long.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well, we all have our preferences. In my opinion the cold on the eastside of the anticlone will erode the it. Probably the area of low pressure at Scandinavia will push southwest, making it harder (longer way) for cold air to reach NW-Europe. 

168 the cold air is already in the UK ??

Edited January 8 by northwestsnow

[That ECM]

T168 and already in fi for me. So many different outcomes but I’ll be honest I would prefer Greenland high drifting to scandi. May happen but I’d say least likely from what I’ve seen today. 

[Ice Day]

A cracking run from the GFS, but I'm with @bluearmy on this. There are so many potential pitfalls with timing and placement, it needs us to throw consecutive double 6's, which is what the GFS has just done.  Much prefer the UKMO version, a considerably safer route for my money, but it's very much in the eye of the beholder.

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

All irrelevant now as deep FI but this slider from the NW would bring in more snow.

The Lorenzo slider 

[sheikhy]

Squeaky bum time!!!!ecm has to go the right way this evening!!!!im very nervous right now!!!!

[Panayiotis]

Remember that things tend to move south and east of the pattern that is forecasted; great if you’re looking at the GFS not so great if you’re looking at the UKMO 

Edited January 8 by Panayiotis

[AO-]

Good evening, 

Neither GEM or GFS are great in fi. Nevertheless is the GEM eps not that bad. I am not sure about the quality of the forecast in terms of detail of GEM, but after the weekend the cold air arrives quickly. GFS has a Westerly flow which is not unlikely, but at day 13.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Squeaky bum time!!!!ecm has to go the right way this evening!!!!im very nervous right now!!!!

Don't be this isn't bog standard fayre

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Squeaky bum time!!!!ecm has to go the right way this evening!!!!im very nervous right now!!!!

I expect the ECM to follow its 6z run, and therefore side with the UKMO.  The evolution just looks cleaner to me, and while that is no guarantee, of course, I think the paucity of data over the Arctic region is causing some of the models to have kittens over the northern Greenland evolution, and therefore the simpler solution might be the right one.

[Lukesluckybunch]

We appear to have lost them mean 850's value..-4 for my region now..before it was -8

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Squeaky bum time!!!!ecm has to go the right way this evening!!!!im very nervous right now!!!!

Don't look at the  12z control whatever you do..

[Chesil View]

Bearing in mind the difference in the position of the low pressure to the southwest between 06z and 12z at the critical time I'm more inclined to think that's it just a ensemble choice rather than a trend to bring the mild air as far north into southern England. It is a high risk high reward game but the final dice are far from having been thrown on this one.

[Zero Visibility]

What most of us will be like this week

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

A cracking run from the GFS, but I'm with @bluearmy on this. There are so many potential pitfalls with timing and placement, it needs us to throw consecutive double 6's, which is what the GFS has just done.  Much prefer the UKMO version, a considerably safer route for my money, but it's very much in the eye of the beholder.

The GFS is an absolute belter for MBY but the UKMO  is more attractive for longevity, I personally think GFS is great to look at but it won't turn out this way 

[ANYWEATHER]

Good runs from the gfs today, still looking at a considerable cold spell , plenty of time to dot the eyes and cross the teas ,and sort out the ifs ,buts ,where's and when's , but keep in your mind ,," Get the cold in first and the rest will follow"  Don't get exasperated with every run......

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

A cracking run from the GFS, but I'm with @bluearmy on this. There are so many potential pitfalls with timing and placement, it needs us to throw consecutive double 6's, which is what the GFS has just done.  Much prefer the UKMO version, a considerably safer route for my money, but it's very much in the eye of the beholder.

The worry is that the other solution is also paved with twists and turns. See the GEM; it

has the surface high that the GFS 0z had, which delays the flow of the cold:

After that, the run falls to pieces, and GEM has been the poster boy for the GH potential on previous runs! There are many forks, and the GFS seems the best for a snow event, with the usual caveats. Remember the GH has a relatively short half-life, so getting an event in early would mean less worry.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't look at the  12z control whatever you do..

I have a few mins ago and its horrible and i wish i didnt!!!!!mean is better!!!!!

[AO-]

Control shows exactly what the puttfall might be with such synoptics. CAA creating shortwaves over the Atlantic. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

I have a few mins ago and its horrible and i wish i didnt!!!!!mean is better!!!!!

mean isn't spectacular though it has to be said.

[Hammy79]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

We appear to have lost them mean 850's value..-4 for my region now..before it was -8

Happy to be proven wrong but to me it’s just the individual ensembles working out where the low pressure to our south will go- some bringing in a lot warmer uppers compared to what we have been seeing which will naturally raise the mean.

 

High risk, high reward- an interesting watch that’s for sure! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

mean isn't spectacular though it has to be said.

Facts there feb..

[Alexis]

1 minute ago, AO- said:

Control shows exactly what the puttfall might be with such synoptics. CAA creating shortwaves over the Atlantic. 

I'm sceptical of that because it just shunts the dense cold out of Central Europe as if it wasn't there.