Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[IDO]

The GFS control is bordering on outlier material at D8 and I would not worry at the moment:

2m temps & 850s:

[Johnp]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Squeaky bum time!!!!ecm has to go the right way this evening!!!!im very nervous right now!!!!

I have a feeling it’s going to throw out an absolute stinker. 

[LRD]

Despite the ridiculous snowfall progged for the middle of next week I actually think the 12z runs are a bit of a disappointment (aside from UKMO and even that has Iberian heights on the rise)

The 6z ensembles were warmer than the 0z and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z ensembles become warmer still

Don't think it's anything to be concerned about as it's just waxing and waning within an overall pattern that looks like delivering cold. But a step back again this evening. My confidence is still high that a memorable cold spell can still happen 

GFS control goes west-based which I think is the biggest threat to this cold spell - not micro-level shortwaves or whatever we call them

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks an upgrade at day 8 

12z v 6z

[Met4Cast]

I might have to take a break from this thread, far too many getting emotional over weather charts, nothing has changed. 

GEFS mean is nice. Broad direction of travel remains exactly the same. 

Edited January 8 by Met4Cast

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Facts there feb..

Although it has just got a bit better but not sure it will get far enough south.

[northwestsnow]

12z mean v 6z mean day 8

 

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, AO- said:

Control shows exactly what the puttfall might be with such synoptics. CAA creating shortwaves over the Atlantic. 

TBH that’s where I thought the GFS was heading

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although it has just got a bit better but not sure it will get far enough south.

Yea I see that..would be nice if we can stick with the 15th..rather then 17/18th though.

[AO-]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I'm sceptical of that because it just shunts the dense cold out of Central Europe as if it wasn't there.

 

Just now, frosty ground said:

TBH that’s where I thought the GFS was heading

Fortunately the Control is in its own as shown by IDO. 

[Rayth]

Control off on one for sure 

 

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I have a feeling it’s going to throw out an absolute stinker. 

Just as well next weeks weather isn’t decided by tonight’s run's

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,American models especially GEM keen on allowing the Atlantic lows to push up and effect the south of the UK as usual if this happens how far does the milder air filter north.Still at least 8 or 9 days off so a lot of uncertainty the ECM tonight might give a better idea but I feel 48 hrs is needed before we can even start to clarify the track of these possible low pressures 

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

mean isn't spectacular though it has to be said.

Take it

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Take it

Looks good to me 

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I might have to take a break from this thread, far too many getting emotional over weather charts, nothing has changed. 

GEFS mean is nice. Broad direction of travel remains exactly the same. 

Please don't, really enjoying your posts and it's also helping me to keep on the level. Also learning quite a bit along the way. 
 

unless you have to of course for sanity reasons.

Edited January 8 by Mark wheeler

[Rob 79812010]

Alert!!! Net weather monthly update through to 6 Feb one of the best I've ever seen!! The models are certainly onto something

[Ali1977]

That’s a great mean if you ask me, clearly lots of ens with big snow potential like the op too

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Alert!!! Net weather monthly update through to 6 Feb one of the best I've ever seen!! The models are certainly onto something

Who does the updates?

[Rob 79812010]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Who does the updates?

It's on the Netweather website. Not sure who does it. Believe me, they don't over egg anything. They're pretty conservative normally and generally fairly accurate

[kold weather]

I've got a feeling how you read the ensembles will vary depending on where you are.

For further north they are still rock solid, and in many cases actually very snowy.

Further south, and its about as mixed a picture as you could get, could be snowy, could be flooding type rains given how wet the last 6 weeks have been down here. Regardless, the margins here are small to begin with.

In some respects @Met4Cast is correct, the broadscale pattern isn't that different, but when you really drill into the last few suites and look at the trend of the individual runs, you will see the pattern has morphed into an all or nothing type pattern for many.

Also, regardless of where it lands, think there is a high chance somewhere will get a notable snowfall out of this at some point providing the models aren't very wrong about the upper high strength to our N/NW.

Edited January 8 by kold weather

[That ECM]

Fwiw I think it’s timing if this happens and how far north west it is. This would effect the track of lows from the west southwest.

If it happens then it’s going to be awhile before we know. 
 

control is an outlier but does show what happens if it’s to far north. 
 

id be interested in thoughts? I could be talking rubbish but just how I see at this time.

Right, off to the pub, need a

[Snowman.]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I have a few mins ago and its horrible and i wish i didnt!!!!!mean is better!!!!!

This is why starting high risk is walking the tight rope, if things end up to far NW then it starts getting dire. The control has the north Easterly we crave, but it’s in Iceland!

For all, if you want your cold spell to have serious legs, you need pressure to be low south of the UK, having a ridge there is just asking for trouble. 

[Hullsnow87]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Who does the 

10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Alert!!! Net weather monthly update through to 6 Feb one of the best I've ever seen!! The models are certainly onto something

Doesn’t seem to be too bullish to me.

[sheikhy]

Gfs control is a massive outlier jheeez!!!!!mean in my opinion is extremely good!!!!