Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[frosty ground]

 

Rising from the ashes?

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Last night was a great one. I think it's all trending towards what the UKMO texted forecast has indicated as battle ground conditions. From an imby perspective that rarely  works out for my location, but for others, especially those further north and east in the UK, it could well work out nicely for them!

From today's trends I can't pick fault with your analysis there. 

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

If it turned out like this many would be saying WTF was all the fuss about LOL, 2 weeks chase for ............lol 

Just as well it's one run and will show something through the runs tomorrow 

Trouble is ... it's a very plausible run

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, joggs said:

We don't want this run to verify or it'll be a few cold days,snow for the favoured few then a look at losing everything that's got us into this position.

That is true, and I suspect the culprit is the Alaskan High that has squeezed the life out of the pattern on our half of the NH:

The Pacific heights vary from run to run, so I would not put much weight on this run at this range. But as you say, the short straw is cold but primarily dry.

Edited January 8 by IDO

[The Northern Ramper]

18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

by Day 8 the height over Greenland have drained away leaving up at the mercy of wedges. 
the the Atlantic is sliding into southern England, not a fan of south easterly winds but those to the south should be

The Manchester shadow.

[on the coast]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Trouble is ... it's a very plausible run

And to be honest its a very cold run although dry?

[Mike Poole]

While I’ve been typing that last post, what on earth has the pub run been up to - it’s horrible!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

While I’ve been typing that last post, what on earth has the pub run been up to - it’s horrible!

Hang on, Hello, could we get a 384 Easterly?

[blizzard81]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

While I’ve been typing that last post, what on earth has the pub run been up to - it’s horrible!

I still don't understand why people give it the time of day. Stick to the 00z & 12z runs. 

[Wold Topper]

Its one run for flips sake, why do some revel in despondency? I bet some of you are in the kitchen at partys!

[Bartlett High]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Hang on, Hello, could we get a 384 Easterly?

384? Ugh!

[Hotspur62]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

Rising from the ashes?

That just looks very odd-look at the West of Portugal!!Just doesn’t look rightNever seen a chart like that for that neck of the woods!!

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Anyone keeping tabs with the AI models and what they are showing for next week?

They seem much cleaner than the normal nwp in their evolutions 

but they’re not offering cross model consistency 

[jacke]

2 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Battle ground snow is absolutely terrible for most in the south as it’s always rain.

That’s a firm statement, not born out by records.  On or near the immediate coast snow will always struggle in these scenarios. Those records will also show that the best snowfalls for the south evolve from these weather types. 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, bluearmy said:

They seem much cleaner than the normal nwp in their evolutions 

but they’re not offering cross model consistency 

I’m not quite sure where they would get much of an idea about this year’s evolution from the data that they have been trained on.

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

On this run GH disappears rapidly,artic heights have gone all seems different to recent runs? Could it be an outlier?

Possibly, yes.  What I would say is that during times of high volatility and unusual synoptics such as this, the reliable timeframe reduces and is probably now day 4, 5 at the absolute limit.  Based on the GFS, UKMO, ECM latest run, that is not a bad place to be.

  

But you can see already differences starting to emerge, which by days 8-9 would potentially be massive.

So, in summary, anything beyond day 4-5 should be taken with a truckload of salt (yes, I am sounding like a broken record), and most importantly enjoy the ride.... it's only the weather after all.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m not quite sure where they would get much of an idea about this year’s evolution from the data that they have been trained on.

True. The word 'infancy' springs to mind. 

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I’m not quite sure where they would get much of an idea about this year’s evolution from the data that they have been trained on.

Well noaa cpc manage to find a date analogue for every chart they generate - but it’s something that does make me wonder. 

[Johnp]

Theta-e charts indicate we stay frosty right out beyond 300+ hours. 

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 GFS versus the EC:

I would say the models are struggling. See if the EC can get two runs in a row tomorrow.

Struggling!? Seriously. 

It's been remarkable consistency apart from the run to run variations. Struggling would be blocked run on one and Atlantic dominating on the next run.

And your comparing one run to another from 2 different models, of course there is going to be differences. 

18Z run is fine with me, it opens the floodgates, some snow risk also(although details are pointless at this stage). Quite similar to the 12Z run really until around the 150 hour mark where the slight differences got more notable. 

Of course it would be better if we get a full UK wide northerly blast with no room for error but we got to accept this is unlikely on this occasion due to a lack of a proper Greenland high. The worry is the northerly will  slacken before the true cold air makes far enough southwards but the trend is clear we are going to see a northerly of some sorts, it's just whether it's going to be a convective snowy one or a more tame one.

[Jason M]

Were looking at day 8-10 charts here. Anything at day 10 or beyond is about as likely to be right as any of the last few day 10 charts.

I'm not too despondent tonight. The initial push from the north looks highly likely. Detail will become clearer later. 

 

[GSP]

All fizzling out on this run, and no surprise whatsoever it’s setting itself back towards default mild.

With such changes in the charts and still so far out, still hopeful another evolution is being sought so quite what we will be looking at as the day progresses tomorrow?

 

[Ali1977]

T150 mean looks better to me - nice to be talking about semi reliable - ish!! Block holding over Greenland 

 

The mean at 156 has us already in cold air 

Edited January 8 by Ali1977

[Bricriu]

If ever there was a trolling chart...well this is it!

[northwestsnow]

Control 18z is an upgrade on its frankly woeful 12z

mean looks very similar to 12z 

Both 156hrs..