Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Beanz]

24 minutes ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

As a complete novice it's somewhat frustrating to read certain models need to be binned because they don't show what people want to see.i love informative posts and this thread.but surely you don't just dismiss a model because it isn't what you want to see? Thankyou all for the information you are providing though.im slowly learning a few things.all be it very slowly.

As you clearly have identified, a vast number of folk hang on every model run and put emotion before scientific analytics.  So you're less of a novice than you might perhaps think!  You do have to sort the wheat from the chaff on this forum, particularly at this time of year otherwise it ends up reading like a thread from mumsnet.com.

We already know the background signals are very well placed, the building blocks if you like.  The latest GFS run is just another solution and one which isn't supported by UKM or EC but certainly isn't a set in stone solution for the next week, and neither should it be binned as you rightly point out.  

The road to an embedded cold period is long, very long in fact, and I'm fairly sure we will see a good period of cold weather over the next 6 weeks unlike we've seen for a good few years.  It may not align quite as we expect, and maybe not perfectly or from the current evolution of the model output.  Patience is key, but thats a commodity in short supply on this thread at the moment, and it shows sometimes  

 

Edited January 9 by Beanz

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think me and Luke are the only ones who like the UKMO 168 frame!

The annoyance is that slither of heights that has appeared over France

Haha right LRD..them heights don't look to last long just by looking at them anyway..I would expect the trough to take over..and be the main player

Edited January 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Downburst]

At this stage I'd like to see some actual precipitation of the wintry type in the reliable, don't know about anyone else, but a northerly at the end of a run typically gets watered down in my view over the years. So the UKMO is excellent, but like ICON the next 7 days remain very dry, we have to wait to see the ECM to see post 180 hrs and what might happen, and that is FI.

[snowblind]

15 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I'd agree.  It's a very disappointing evolution between 144 - 168.  Not what I expected at all really.  

Fortunately it's 7 days away so plenty of time for it to change for the better, or worse I guess but let's be positive.

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Beanz said:

As you clearly have identified, a vast number of folk hang on every model run and put emotion before scientific analytics.  So you're less of a novice than you might perhaps think!  You do have to sort the wheat from the chaff on this forum, particularly at this time of year other wise it ends up reading like a thread from mumsnet.com.

We already know the background signals are very well placed, the building blocks if you like.  The latest GFS run is just another solution and one which isn't supported by UKM or EC but certainly isn't a set in stone solution for the next week, and neither should it be binned as you rightly point out.  

The road to an embedded cold period is long, very long in fact, and I'm fairly sure we will see a good period of cold weather over the next 6 weeks unlike we've seen for a good few years.  It may not align quite as we expect, and maybe not perfectly or from the current evolution of the model output.  Patience is key, but thats a commodity on short supply on this thread at the moment and it shows sometimes  

 

Spot on 

Especially the bit I've bolded

[Met4Cast]

This thread can be incredibly confusing at times, especially for those new/less knowledgable. I do wonder if much like the "Pro/Meteorologist" tag whether it might be worth a new tag for those who consistently & frequently post informative, non-biased balanced views to the forum, just as a reference point that what that person is saying can be "trusted"? It may help ease the confusion a little @Paul 

Whilst the GFS deterministic run flops about like a fish out of water, the UKMO & to an extent GEM remain rather consistent. As @Tamarapointed out a few days ago the ensemble means will be next to useless in the extended due to a large amount of spread and an overall "smoothing out" of small-scale features. 

I don't think the GFS deterministic is correct. I also don't think the UKMO is correct. BUT. Broadly, ensembles point towards cold conditions next week with a growing risk of high impact snowfall events as lows attempt to move in across the UK, this remains firmly routed within NWP modelling and is also consistent with the teleconnections. 

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” – George Box

[northwestsnow]

144 UKMO

assuming this is is something approaching reality I winder if we'll see any disturbances..

That's very cold air travelling over relatively warm sea ,what I'm trying to say is will that be Dry? Hope not ,not had a flake since early Dec locally...

Edited January 9 by northwestsnow

[Gary L]

Flicking through the GFS ENS at 162 they look excellent on the whole. Some milder solutions but the disagreement in the evolution is quite clear with vastly different modelling of the GH high.

[frosty ground]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure I’d describe it as ‘nice and safe’ Luke 

It’s bringing back themes we thought we’d dispensed with 

gfs similar with the ridge dropping se

could do with ec not following suit later 

The milder sector and the short wave has been on and off all runs around this time frame for days now, I see the low delveloping and moving south and reintroducing the colder air.

This mild sector will probably be squashed as we approach day dot 

[Spah1]

22 hours ago, Spah1 said:

You really think it’s a significant block? I was just looking at the models and the heights don’t seem to be robust and drain away over time. 

I posted this last night but nobody took me up on it. Heights don’t look to hang around on the 168hrs UKMO over Greenland. 

[Cymro]

39 minutes ago, ITSY said:

This is hugely entertaining and interesting. If UKMO verifies as shown, any eventual encroachment from the West will produce significant snow for somewhere in central or southern England, even if transitory. If the GFS verifies as shown - well, the less said the better there for anyone who's virtually not on a Scottish mountaintop. GEM continues to paint a positive picture closer to UKMO and with a bit of consistency too. GEFS, ECM and EPS will be interesting now...

PS. I think someone else has just said this but you cannot just 'bin' a model output because you don't like it. If we think a model is handling a feature wrongly that is fine - but it's not to be dismissed. It's a possibility, especially for our Isles where if things can go wrong they usually do in the hunt for cold.

Any encroachment will just hop over that western bit and land in England will it? I.e Wales

[WinterOf47]

In general, if one of the main models is showing a return to the kind of rubbish weather that we are used to, i.e. the usual MO for this windy rainswept land, rather than Narnia, then I don’t think it is being pessimistic to suspect that it may be on to something. It will be interesting to see which set of models cave. I suspect that it will end up being a fudge with some heavy wet snow for the Midlands, with decent falls for the North for a day or so early next week, then rain and wind for all but the Shetlands. The GFS is the only model showing “normal” UK winter weather.

Edited January 9 by WinterOf47

[Ali1977]

It starts going wrong between 132 and 144 over Greenland - 132 looks great, not sure we should look any further!! However like some have said - the UKMO may actually be a great run for snow and longevity!! Let’s see what the ECM throws at us!! 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I posted this last night but nobody took me up on it. Heights don’t look to hang around on the 168hrs UKMO over Greenland. 

The signal is for weaker heights up there but that doesn't necessarily mean cold won't win out. IIRC Dec 1981 never had huge pressure readings in Greenland. But there was enough high pressure to drive cold air to our latitude and keep the jet to the south with loads of battleground snow events and bitter overnight lows

We sometimes overlook the good in search of the perfect on here (and in real life!)

[Winter Hill]

Unbelievable this place sometimes. 
emotions have gone from jubilation to Wrist slashing all for a T+168 chart, 1 week away.  

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168 is mainly rain sadly..

[markw2680]

A new term I dislike these days are “locked in” we will never really be locked into anything living on the edge of the Atlantic! Very small sudden changes in the models will snap us out of a pattern extremely quickly as we know. 
things are looking very interesting early next week from cold and snow but not everywhere will get it and certainly won’t get locked into anything.

the trend throughout the models is colder and wintry and just different models handle it differently to others which is to be expected for 6,7,8 days and so on.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I posted this last night but nobody took me up on it. Heights don’t look to hang around on the 168hrs UKMO over Greenland. 

There is a definite trend for heights to start lowering over Greenland from around 164h on pretty much every model. We just need to make sure we are on the northern side of lows which will eventually encroach from between the NW ~ SW.

At this early stage, I would say Central UK northwards looking good, South of that I would be rather worried!

More runs needed though, big ECM coming up

[tight isobar]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Unfortunately it would phase with the ESB trough(red arrow),so not that good really,we need clean seperation of these two for height's to sustain the pattern.

 

No lies .. we need every dynamical reinforcement. To de-stabilize the morphing of the father/ daughter lobes!.. this is where the models are at loggerheads though (which is good)!.. as the energy forcing through the at/ nw- polar reaches are in a state of confuse right now.. but the feeling is positive… as you’d expect such as the polar reaction is always a confuse of mass b4 cross/ stable alignment.   I’m sure we have this

[Nick2373]

Why is everyone shocked like this weren’t being model, it was being model/trending on the GEFS yesterday. And a few did mention this onl to be dismissed 

[northwestsnow]

I'm not sure how accurate the precip charts  are off UKMET but I've looked and it's basically dry with a smattering off snow N Scotland

144 as an example..

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This thread can be incredibly confusing at times, especially for those new/less knowledgable. I do wonder if much like the "Pro/Meteorologist" tag whether it might be worth a new tag for those who consistently & frequently post informative, non-biased balanced views to the forum, just as a reference point that what that person is saying can be "trusted"? It may help ease the confusion a little @Paul 

Whilst the GFS deterministic run flops about like a fish out of water, the UKMO & to an extent GEM remain rather consistent. As @Tamarapointed out a few days ago the ensemble means will be next to useless in the extended due to a large amount of spread and an overall "smoothing out" of small-scale features. 

I don't think the GFS deterministic is correct. I also don't think the UKMO is correct. BUT. Broadly, ensembles point towards cold conditions next week with a growing risk of high impact snowfall events as lows attempt to move in across the UK, this remains firmly routed within NWP modelling and is also consistent with the teleconnections. 

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” – George Box

I think that waiting for the EC is the sensible solution. If that holds firm, we can move to the 18z with hope. If the EC moves towards the GFS, we have a problem, although the grey area between GFS and EC may still have a route to cold like the GEM. But IMHO the GEM got lucky with a wedge of heights from the Pacific conveniently re-stocking the GH, which the GFS didn't really:

The ^^^GEM getting help from a wedge just at the right moment!

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 168 is mainly rain sadly..

Check that against the uppers in places like Europe, not even remotely correct or worth paying attention to.

 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Unbelievable this place sometimes. 
emotions have gone from jubilation to Wrist slashing all for a T+168 chart, 1 week away.  

Marvelous isn’t it ! 

This place wouldn’t be the same without the mood swings between runs . 

It would become very  dull if this thread was just emotionless interpretation of the models .

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Check that against the uppers in places like Europe, not even remotely correct or worth paying attention to.

 

I did qualify the post by questioning the reliability of the chart

Just incase it's guff ..

Just now, nick sussex said:

Marvelous isn’t it ! 

This place wouldn’t be the same without the mood swings between runs . 

It would become very  dull if this thread was just emotionless interpretation of the models .

 

Yes we are humans afterall !!