Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Turnedoutniceagain]

6 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Unbelievable this place sometimes. 
emotions have gone from jubilation to Wrist slashing all for a T+168 chart, 1 week away.  

Lots of people seem to have forgotten that they're looking at computer generated predictions - nothing is cast iron. Chill out, there's literally nothing you can do about the upcoming cold spell. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

beautiful

 

BFTP

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure how accurate the precip charts  are off UKMET but I've looked and it's basically dry with a smattering off snow N Scotland

144 as an example..

Totally agree, we will have to see some actual snow at some stage given the current setup or else, I don't know. I'll scream. It was a frenzy in here during that run, but pressure was high and it didn't look like anything, except perhaps if it ran further, which it doesn't ECM up next which should give guidance after 180, in FI though.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Check that against the uppers in places like Europe, not even remotely correct or worth paying attention to.

 

Straight up here (no offense to yaself or indeed anyone)- but looking at singular time wrap precipitation frames… when the state of  flux grand scheme is in turmoil for decipher   in itself.. ain’t at all worthy!

Edited January 9 by tight isobar

[Froze were the Days]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

beautiful

 

BFTP

You're a bit late...not so on the next run. I'd be very surprised to see the ECM model something similar tonight.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Not the most popular models, but JMA and Arpege look decent 

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

You're a bit late...not so on the next run. I'd be very surprised to see the ECM model something similar tonight.

I think you may be pleasantly surprised. 

[joggs]

Gutted UKMO goes from that stunning 144 chart to the 168

Just can't let the GFS go grrrrr.

Cmon ECM follow the UKMO then keep Greenland clear 168 onwards.

What can go wrong?

[bluearmy]

Whilst fi on gfs is very much just for trends and things to note down at the back of your mind, the NH profile is very much that of a distressed vortex and the way the low heights across the Atlantic drain away is reflective of downwelling reversal waves

all good signs as we head towards the end of jan. We’ve seen some fi runs which look very grim across the polar field so it’s nice to see runs which reflect what a bad place the vortex is likely to be in come late jan 

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure how accurate the precip charts  are off UKMET but I've looked and it's basically dry with a smattering off snow N Scotland

144 as an example..

no ppn forecast of snow is accurate even at short times scales. Not that different to the summer forecasts of rain if you look back. How often even at T+24 or less was the ppn not in the right place/not the correct intensity etc. With snow there are  further 7 or 8 parameters to consider!

[damianslaw]

Just a quick word on GFS, in an earlier post today I did say expect future model runs to play around with the interaction of low heights and the cold block.. and that the most likely candidate for blowing up.low pressure on a northerly track would be the GFS and voila the 12z does just that. Interesting to note longer term it builds heights to the NW again. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, joggs said:

Gutted UKMO goes from that stunning 144 chart to the 168

Just can't let the GFS go grrrrr.

Cmon ECM follow the UKMO then keep Greenland clear 168 onwards.

What can go wrong?

Keeping greenland clear at the moment..is an outsider I think..the initial push isn't quite strong enough..so when we do get a break off from the main trough there's just too much forcing on the high!

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

Not the most popular models, but JMA and Arpege look decent 

Indeed .

[markw2680]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Straight up here (no offense to yaself or indeed anyone)- but looking at singular time wrap precipitation frames… when the state of  flux grand scheme is in turmoil for decipher   in itself.. ain’t at all worthy!

I have absolutely no idea what any of that means

[Spah1]

For those posters who are tired of folks riding their emotions on 168hrs charts maybe you should just stick to reading the insightful model thread if it annoys you so much. This is a public forum and folks are allowed to be as invested as much as they want in FI charts regardless of whether some people think it’s fruitless. Some folks might enjoy the highs and lows of emotion regardless of how rational or irrational others judge it to be. As long as it’s not a moan or ramp and contributes to the thread long may it continue in my mind. 

Edited January 9 by Spah1

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I have absolutely no idea what any of that means

I will translate. He doesn’t see the point at looking at perception chart at that time when the nhp from different models is so different.

 

I’m fluent in tight isobar.

Edited January 9 by That ECM

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Marvelous isn’t it ! 

This place wouldn’t be the same without the mood swings between runs . 

It would become very  dull if this thread was just emotionless interpretation of the models .

 

Add in location to that mix (we all view the charts hoping for the best bits to land on our house, obviously) and the thread can become a bit of a mess.

its much easier viewing 240 ECMs or 384 GFS charts to bring us together…..

The devil’s in the details as always.
 

Overall the synoptic pattern is a very good one for January, and a country mile away from a raging jet stream with a Greenland PV. Mr Bartlett is off on holiday somewhere…..

More runs needed. And it would be nice to see the ECM deliver a good run post 144, if for no other reason than to keep the thread happy. 
 

but regardless, lots of fun yet to come no doubt  

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I have absolutely no idea what any of that means

“Summed up”… it’s as much use looking at precipitation charts.. anytime at such long time frames… let alone northern hemisphere modeling being clueless- as a whole- at that range

[Met4Cast]

GFS det is way above the ensemble pack and verging on outlier territory, majority of the GEFS remain below the mean line. 

No worries from me. Onto the ECM!

[northwestsnow]

GEFS mean is a slight improvement at day 8 

its very slight improvement mind..

[Froze were the Days]

15 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I think you may be pleasantly surprised. 

Let's hope so - ECM has really been scrooge like in handing out mouth waterers even if they aren't correct!

[SizzlingHeat]

I very rarely post on here anymore but I like to read the comments and generally follow what's going on. Since joining in 2004, the comments are still broadly similar to 20 years ago. It has always amused me to an extent why people still dismiss models and runs that do not show what they want to see, then rave highly about a particular model when it shows what they want to see. Was still the same 20 years ago as it is now. Still makes me chuckle. However, things are starting to become a little more complicated after the weekend with runs chopping and changing to such a vast degree. Micro analysing each run of each model each day isn't going to help, but I feel personally having a half hour look through the models today that the most likely scenario is colder further north with the highest chance of snow midlands north, becoming milder and more unsettled thereafter. 

Anyhow, im off again, enjoy the winter and adiós! 

[Bobafet]

Models are firming up on a decent shot of potential wintry weather next week, I don’t think you can rule out snow cropping up anywhere to be honest.  UKMO stunning up to 144, GFS toying around with different ideas, I suspect as usual a half way house between the models is looking favourite! 
 

Lets hope ECM follows the upgrades on its last few runs, hides behind sofa!

As said above GEFS heading in right direction!

[sheikhy]

Ecm gona make us all happy here and give us a straight line northerly!!!15 mins and counting!!.....

[Drifter]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

 

not good 

I think that’s ok and would probably improve afterwards?