Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Summer8906 Yes I know what you mean. It's just a colloquial term to refer to the mainland continent as opposed to listing out the specific countries in question. I use the term "Europe" to denote "mainland Europe" whilst also very much considering Britain to be part of Europe too, just not mainland. Same as how I'd say "Scandinavia" to reference something related to Sweden, Norway or Denmark, even though all of those countries are in Europe also. 

[Methuselah]

Here's this week's Deep Dive; it's not exactly all that optimistic.

 

[B87]

Could see something like this happening for the next 6 months...

April: av max 13c, 80mm rain, 110 sun hours

May: av max 16c, 70mm rain, 150 sun hours

June: av max 20c, 50mm rain, 170 sun hours

July: av max 21c, 60mm rain, 160 sun hours

August: av max 24c, 20mm rain, 240 sun hours

September: av max 21c, 40mm rain, 180 sun hours

Would be a disgusting warm half of the year.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 B87 it'll be 3 weeks of dry weather in July and someone will create another "worryingly dry" thread lol.

[B87]

 In Absence of True Seasons Until we have had 10 consecutive months, each with <75% of average rainfall, any worryingly dry threads should be immediately locked.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Methuselah I judge whether or not I want to watch these videos based upon the presenter's face in the thumbnail.

Alex's face in the last couple has been the face of a man who's just arrived at the pub in much need of a pint to find his favourite brew is off. 

Metaphor's arise, it's the face of a man who does not have positive news

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 While I’ve spoken about analogues recently, in terms of pattern matching for specific UK weather it’s totally useless. The only analogues I care for are matching global drivers that can point to the likelihood of troughs and highs in certain areas. The year has had an uncannily similarity to 1998 though it must be said. 

Further back you and Sean spoke about this year likely to be the dullest and wettest on record. A little extreme as we’re only three months in! I have to say though, I do think that we may see the record broken for wettest year ever in our lifetimes, though I’d be rather surprised if the exceptionally wet pattern held long enough to do that. We’ve never had a year cross the 1,300mm line in the England and Wales Precipitation records going back to 1766; I think we’ll manage it eventually. Makes you wonder how wet the UK could possibly be in one year; 1,400mm? 15? I’ll stop counting before I trigger panic attacks!

 

As for summer… Still some “hopium” I personally feel going around, though there is every chance we could flip from one extreme to another, but I’d rather we don’t. I have got this premonition type feeling that floods will be a in the news this summer though for us and/or Europe… not a forecast, just a feeling. 1,300mm record anyone?

Also last bit of a tangent but the sunshine thing, I don’t expect that to go but it would actually be overdue since how sunny we’ve been in the 21st century. A very dull year for most of the country would stand out. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 B87

It's interesting, because a couple of people in here the other day were claiming that this protected spell of weather throughout 2023 and now 24 has not been / is not "extreme". Which to me is mad, regardless of your weather preference.

Extreme weather is not only comprised by crazy cold/hot temperatures or huge storms, etc. Month after month of significantly below / above average of X conditions *is* extreme. Including some of the months in that period being within the top 10 or top 5 ever recorded month for those conditions.

I know that heat is the main focus of the climate change discussion, both on this forum and generally, but personally I think that the potential for our climate to become much wetter and associated flooding is far more of a risk long-term to the UK than more frequent heatwaves from Jun to Sept and the odd 35-40c day.

 

[Downburst]

I think the weather has gone as mad as the world. My nearest station and it's grim in my view anyway. Wet Wet Wet, and I thought they were just a harmless band, no idea they were forecasting the future at all. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! It was only 2021 that we recorded our dullest year ever. We have also had plenty of duller than average years in recent times, the last being 2023.

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Country wide though. It’s a known fact we’re getting sunnier. 2021 was sunnier than average overall but the south bore the front. Can attest to that, I was in London that summer! I only remember grey skies, very little sun. 
 

2023 was also very sunny for many

Dull years country wide don’t happen like they used to it seemed. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! 2023 was slightly duller than average here. 

2021 had 11 out of 12 months duller than normal. Only April was sunny. 

Surely we can have at least one sunny month this year (that isn't a winter month).

Edited March 26 by B87

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 I flicked through all the years and to get a UK wide year that was overall rather dull you have to go back to 2002. We’re definitely overdue one, though it’s not something I’m wishing for! No doubt 2024 will hit us with some very sunny months, it’s custom. But the question is will it happen in the spring as usual or will my summer premonitions be wrong?  

I’d like a 2001 or 2005 style summer personally, very agreeable with something for everyone, not much extremes, decent sun, rain and hot spells in all three months. Everyone’s happy. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! Compared to the actual averages or the 61-90 average? 2021 was Heathrow's dullest ever year. 2008, 2010 and 2013 were also notably dull years here. I'm sure there are more but those ones immediately come to mind.

1996, 2001 or 2005 would be pretty average summers. I don't think anyone would have an issue with them. It's the dull summers where we dont get any (or just one) 200+ hour months that are the issue.

Edited March 26 by B87

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 What do you mean the actual averages? I’m using the 1961-1990 averages to highlight how sunny we’ve gotten this century and how 2024 being very dull for the UK overall would be unusual. Interesting to think about what we consider dull conditions are not always that exceptional compared to our “normal” climate. That’s the data I was trying to convey and what I’m interested in, personally. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! Well compared to the current averages, we've had plenty of dull years. 

We had 6 dull summers in a row between 2007-2012. Last July was the dullest for 31 years. 3 of the 4 dullest Augusts on record have occurred since 2008. 

Edited March 26 by B87

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Looking at the maps for the 1991-2020 averages for sunshine and 2002, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2017 and 2021 become duller than normal UK wide but the rest are average or sunny and many coming out sunnier than normal compared to our old normal climate. Sun is the name of the game these days, even in very wet years like 2020. To be honest, sun lovers should be rejoicing. Apparently the 21st century UK motto has changed from sunshine after the rain to sunshine and the rain as well.  

[SunnyG]

If we go by biblical standards, maybe this constant rain is a sign of something or other (can't say what or I'll be censored) 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! 2010 and 2013 were duller than average here too. The SE seems to be getting the worst conditions regularly now. I'll be happy when normality is resumed and the SE has the best of the weather.

We are overdue a very long spell of very dry months. 

[LetItSnow!]

 SunnyG We’ve got a thread for it by now, don’t worry  

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG Brexit!

[Azazel]

 Summer8906  last ‘summer’ was the earliest I’ve ever seen the leaves begin to turn. It really has been the most extended period of dross I can ever recall with the odd bit of nice thrown in (September). 

[Summer8906]

 In Absence of True Seasons Well, compare and contrast the weather of June 1975 and 2016. Just saying....

Edited March 26 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! Doubtless about 90% of 2023's sunshine occurred in 12 weeks in late Jan, Feb, May and June.

Interesting how spectacularly dull the area just east of Portsmouth was in 2021. Wonder why that area bore the brunt?

Edited March 26 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 B87 I do feel from around May-Sep will be somewhat drier, though probably something like 1 dry, 2 average and 2 wet months in that time frame.

I do think the summer won't be that wet (it would be truly extraordinary to have such a spell of wet conditions, not to mention catastrophic for agriculture) but then perhaps we will get a return to deluges in autumn.

I have an early gut feeling winter 24/25 might be dry, and relatively cold (as in close to 61-90 average). Not sure why exactly.