General summer chat

[raz.org.rain]

I was honestly really surprised to see 2022 come up as a close analogue here

 

Edited May 7 by raz.org.rain

[cheese]

 

On 30/04/2024 at 23:04, damianslaw said:

Surprised only 25 degrees for Manchester needs to be breached 3 days, same as Highland Scotland, I think Manchester and W Yorkshire should be 26 degrees. 

Agreed. The average maximum temperature in July at my nearest official weather station is 21.4C, which is only 0.1C lower than Nottingham Watnall’s 21.5C - and yet the heatwave threshold is apparently 2 degrees higher there than it is here despite the average temperatures being virtually identical?

Likewise the average maximum temperature in July in Cavendish (Suffolk) is 23.2C, which is almost 2 degrees higher than Nottingham - and yet both have the same heatwave threshold? 

Just doesn’t make much sense at all to me. 

I do suspect it’s partly a flaw of applying these thresholds to entire counties since there is often significant variation in elevation. That is certainly very apparent in counties bordering the Pennines. 

Edited May 7 by cheese

[Harry233]

 LetItSnow! I don’t think summer 2023 was as bad as some of the worst, it does seem to get a bit of an unfair rep. It had a excellent June, July was quite wet and unsettled but it was rarely cool, despite the rain I recorded a high of just shy of 20.C was slightly cooler for my area but compared to July 2015 or 2012 which both had a maxima of below 18.C. August wasn’t a bad month either, probably a few areas bore the brunt of it worse than others but for me I would rate in on par with the summers of 2004, 2009, 2010, 2016. As it was generally unsettled but still had good warm and dry spells and it actually ended up slightly warmer, drier and sunnier than average but virtually all the good weather was in June. 

[reef]

 Harry233 It wasn't the worst here either: wetter than average, but slightly warmer and sunnier than normal too. On the summer index, it came out as 15th best in 44 summers for us.

I think the issue is all of the exceptional weather was concentrated into June and all of the worst into July. August was pretty middle of the road. I also think it would not have been looked at as so poor if it came after 2021 rather than a well above average summer like 2022.

[Harry233]

 reef exactly I had two excellent summers in 2021 and 2022 and certainly for me summer 2020 was a terrible summer. You’re spot on with what you say about it all be concentrated into June. In fact June 2023 was actually my warmest June on record, but 2018 was both drier and sunnier. July 2023 actually reminded me of a little bit of a cooler version July 2009. We had a lot of very pleasant mornings and then we would have a absolute downpour in the afternoon before it would clear up for the evening, unlike 2009 though there was a few more consistently wet and cooler days. August 2023 wasn’t a bad month here at all being both slightly warmer and drier than average. Goes to show how different summers can be in the UK, I have very good memories of summer 2021, for Scotland it was one of the best summers on record but it was a terrible one in the south, summer 2020 was a terrible summer for me but it wasn’t too bad in the south that year.

[danm]

The problem with Summer 2023 is that July and the first 10 days of August were awful. That's peak Summer. 

[stewfox]

Well my garden looks good.  Hello summer

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 danm it was a moderate niño summer though, that made the azores high weak and an east QBO that made our AO negative at times throughout summer of last year.   

[damianslaw]

 Harry233 Summer 23 was poor overall here, a 3 week dry very warm spell in June doesn't make a good summer. July was shocking here, temps barely scraped 18-19 degrees most days and it was exceptionally wet. August was mediocre. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Isn't that normal though up there? summer normally around early May to late June

[WYorksWeather]

How about this for an SST pattern going into summer - valid for 23rd May from tonight's ECM. Huge positive anomalies near the UK and also positive anomalies to our south / south-west as far as the Azores.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather could make for a humid and hot summer, lots of thunderstorm activity.

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain I think the main thing will be the effect on overnight minima. Maybe a record-breaking number of tropical nights?

EDIT: Forgot to add - if the pattern persists into summer itself of course - we're not going to see tropical nights in late May.

Edited May 8 by WYorksWeather

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 damianslaw I'd say a big percentage of last year's summer was like 2009, then 1976, and then 2006.   Mixture of all those summers rolled into one.   

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 WYorksWeather WHy is it so warm around us?

[MP-R]

 Harry233 2009 is actually a really good comparison. June the best month, July horrific, and August fair.

Shame we couldn’t have had a 09/10 winter redux…

[WYorksWeather]

 *Stormforce~beka* Well - projected to be, it's still 14 days away.

But as for the reason - probably an already warm Atlantic plus the extra warmth from this week probably having a delayed effect.

[raz.org.rain]

 *Stormforce~beka* there's a whole host of theories but one of the more popular ones is termination shock. If it's a factor here, I'd assume it's amplifying seasonal trends.

[summer blizzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981 -QBO was not sufficiently developed to have much impact last summer. 

Most strong ISH El Nino's don't produce great summers and the -PDO probably had more impact than the QBO.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 summer blizzard thank you very much on that, yet the summer CET of last year was 16.5 and still tenhincally in the hot category.   Think another plumey summer this year i think would be the most realistic bet at this stage.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

This is very impressive for July of this year from the CFS with basically a jet stream skirting towards iceland.    

[Frigid]

 Addicks Fan 1981 knowing the CFS, it'll probably be the exact opposite

[raz.org.rain]

 Frigid to be fair there seems to be a pretty consistent cross model agreement for something much warmer and drier in July 

[Summer8906]

 Addicks Fan 1981 I find it hard to understand 1976 or 2006 comparisons with last summer.

One of the worst summers of the past 30 years; constant unsettled weather with no meaningful breaks from June 26th to September 1st.

Even 2009 was considerably better in the sense that August 2009 was settled whereas August 2023 was unsettled.

July was the worst since probably 1988 for a combination of wet, dull and cool-by-day.

Edited May 16 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Not especially liking the preview of the coming summer here on Netweather: the consensus seems to be for a cyclonic southwesterly June, which is the last thing we need after the past 11 months! If that comes to pass, it'll be 12 wet months on the trot.

 

Summer 2024: Seasonal models suggest a very warm one, but rainfall signal uncertain

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A look at what seasonal weather models indicate show from their May updates for summer 2024. General theme is for temperatures to be above average all 3 months, but the rainfall signal looks mixed...

Then July and August are a  bit unclear, but no strong signal for precipitation either way so could be equally likely to be wet as well as dry. No indication of strong ridging.

"Very warm" doesn't excite me anymore, as it could easily be due to extremely mild nights, a few heat spikes, and a lot of dull, damp weather. The fact that spring 2024 could be one of the warmest on record while at the same time, one of the most damp and miserable on record, suggests "warm" or "very warm" weather in the summer half year is no longer a reliable suggestion of fine, dry, sunny, settled weather.

Hoping those initial thoughts are well wide of the mark: what we need is a summer with a strong North Atlantic high producing dry or very dry weather!

Even though I'm likely to be out of the country later on in the season, the same discussion includes a chart suggesting another excessively hot summer in SE Europe which is the last thing they need. Spain might get away with something a bit more normal though.

Tedious pattern. What Europe needs is dry in the north and northwest, and relatively cool (relative to the long term norm) in the south. Climate change is slowly turning summer into a challenging season throughout most of our continent.

Edited May 16 by Summer8906