Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Andy8472]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The strat looks obliterated on the 6z run Mike . Can only mean great things going forward.

Yup, on the ropes but might recover later on

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024

Something a "Drift" there

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s is the biggest and best upgrade I’ve seen this week - all in very unstable conditions. I expect a METO upgrade today

Not sure their medium range update today will take into consideration the GFS 6z and ensembles and the ECM ensembles won’t be out in time, so don’t expect too much.

I think ECM 6z ensembles will be really interesting at 2pm!

[snowblizzard]

37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not got time to post charts etc but 10-14 day NOAA shows a westerly into the UK, still a bit below 500 MB temperatures for UK, 6-10 shows pattern I posted yesterday. ECMWF also v slightly downgraded in its time frame, shows very slack COL situation by end of its period which is a similar time frame to 6-10 NOAA. I prefer to see 2-3 charts being consistent before making any forecasts.

Would I be right in thinking the longevity of any deep cold looks in jeopardy?  

Edited January 10 by snowblizzard

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s is the biggest and best upgrade I’ve seen this week - all in very unstable conditions. I expect a METO upgrade today

Wasn’t there an upgrade yesterday maybe that covers them until next week ?

[MJB]

27 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can’t say I’m seeing anything worthy of a red being modelled for next week.. 

Agreed, nothing remotely promoting a Red warning. 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s is the biggest and best upgrade I’ve seen this week - all in very unstable conditions. I expect a METO upgrade today

I would expect either a continuation or a subtle downgrade ali

nothing a met man likes less than uncertainty!

Edited January 10 by bluearmy

[MJB]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s is the biggest and best upgrade I’ve seen this week - all in very unstable conditions. I expect a METO upgrade today

Not on the back of one GFS run, you know that. 

[johnholmes]

5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Would I be right in thinking the longevity of any deep cold looks in jeopardy?  

A snap answer would be possibly!

Like my post mentioned I need a couple more outputs to make a definite prog

 

[winterof79]

ECM ensembles flat line then show a disturbance into the cold air Wed/Thurs with copious precipitation with low ish uppers and then a return swiftly to flat line

[Bricriu]

11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Something a "Drift" there

Yes back to mentioning  slightly milder weather for a time.  It looks like areas further north would stay cold throughout. As long as we don't see a further  change in wording to milder weather rather than  an interlude of milder weather, then I am happy enough with that update  

Edited January 10 by Bricriu

[Djdazzle]

The Met Office won't change their update based on the GFS 6z because unlike some on here, they don't hang on to every Op run. 

If the 12z suite (including ECM and UKMO) show similar, they may consider it then.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

18 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Its been a while GFS

Gfs Op and Control have gone from zero to hero!

[northwestsnow]

Well at this range the update looks fine ..

I guess the tricky bit is where and when the Atlantic attempts to dislodge the cold..

 

[Matt Jones]

One thing of note looking at the 850's today is we start to see the warm sectors more clearly, Monday sees a large part of Eastern England on the wrong side of marginal before a renewed push of colder 850's from the north Wednesday/Thursday. Always a tough ask to get snow from these marginal set ups if precipitation does move in off the north sea, especially low lying areas.

[Met4Cast]

EXETER KEEP THE FAITH! 

Extended update via app, they see the block & hold holding on into February! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

EXETER KEEP THE FAITH! 

Extended update via app, they see the block & hold holding on into February! 

Woohooooooooooo

[phil nw.]

Two faxs for Saturday.First is from yesterdays 12z and the second is from the overnight met run,the latest at t84hrs.

 

We can see little step forwards with the high retrogressing, setting us up nicely for the Arctic northerly hitting from Sunday.Cold front approaching Scotland already on that.

These are the ones to follow in the next few days for any developments that will be forecasted  in the flow ,and i dare say there could well be some disturbances heading south in that.

 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well at this range the update looks fine ..

I guess the tricky bit is where and when the Atlantic attempts to dislodge the cold..

 

And if!  The way things are trending, it could be the Atlantic remains shut out and weather systems have to work their positions out in its absence, which would be nice.  12z runs and ensembles a must watch, out and about today but will be glued to my phone!

[Cold Winter Night]

Well, that's a lot of pages to plow through.

Fascinating developments though, short-, mid- and long term, you don't see that very often!

The GFS 6z was interesting IMO, it showed the pattern shift from Greenland heights to Scandi High that I find more plausible, because it happens the way it did many times in past cold spells.
Lingering heights somewhere up North, until a new push from the Atlantic through the UK moves into Scandinavia.
It would not surprise me if this run is pretty close to what will actually happen over the next two weeks.

[joggs]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EXETER KEEP THE FAITH! 

Extended update via app, they see the block & hold holding on into February! 

Updated early today?

[WolfeEire]

The state of play for 1am on Tuesday. All quite similar.

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

Updated early today?

It was pasted in here about 30 mins ago

[Nick2373]

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EXETER KEEP THE FAITH! 

Extended update via app, they see the block & hold holding on into February! 

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024

Just now, Speedbird said:

It was pasted in here about 30 mins ago

Yes i posted it early

 

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Updated early today?

Bizarrely they updated it at 12:30 but they haven't updated next week yet?

[Frigid]

What a run from the GFS, possibly the best we've seen yet this winter. Both OP and control keep the faith. Huge upgrades all round!

Majority of places don't exceed freezing for a whole week, incredible. CET could be near or below 0C if it came off.