Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but it's a pretty snowless run for most as a consequence. 

Some snow was meant to arrive Monday for many, now we're back to a week away at least outside of Scotland. 

It's worth remembering how that snowfall in parts of Cumbria caught everyone out in December, including the met office.

[TSNWK]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

In terms of frontal snowfall yes but you can guarantee disturbances would arise closer to the time 

Much better.  I'm not a fan of frontal snow..  simply too risky and symptom of pattern not being robust for longevity.. get an unstable cold trough in and pop ups will spring up anyway with about 72 hours notice tops

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel  given the nh profile?

Tough to call, renewed northern blocking a very likely outcome

[joggs]

Shorter term pain for long term gain on this run,which is what I wanted.

I'd rather keep us all in cold than frontal snow for me.

I know it'll change but that's a great run for me

[phil nw.]

11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

No sadly it isn't and I would of loved to experienced it. Still have the great 1978 blizzard as my first memory. I envy your break in the Cairngorms as i've never been further N than Newcastle!

Much better 06Z with the GH extending further S.

 

No it's no 63 Dave but your point about surface cold under quite modest cold uppers is correct.

I recorded daily weather obs as a school boy during that Winter and still have the diary.The prolonged snow cover for 63 Days was a big factor in keeping it cold at the surface combined with the Atlantic shutdown much of the Winter.

Meanwhile here and now which ever way the operational runs plot the path to next week we arrive at the same result.Cold to the south coast by Monday and a within a day or so an approach from the Atlantic still with the prospects of snow fall where the boundary shows up.

The pattern beyond continues to evolve but the main theme is the jet staying south and a weak Atlantic.

[Paul_1978]

Model fatigue is well and truly setting in if @bluearmyand @Met4Cast are on the wane. 

For me it's this - do we all chase cold because we want calm, cold, benign weather? Perhaps so given all the rain and flooding recently. But I think for most of us it's because we want snow, and for many of us our greatest weather memories are 1979, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2013, 2018 to name but a few. Are we getting snow next week? The answer seems to be yes (although we don't know exactly where), so that's a big green tick  

Therefore the models are giving us what many of us actually want. I for one am enjoying the ride, and we are only on 10th Jan!

[Arch Stanton]

With the Jet Stream predicted to steam into Iberia next week, does that mean the battleground scenarios for snow/rain along the M4 corridor are no longer an issue and snow should be had for all?

[Man With Beard]

We're not used to pressure charts like this:

occurring in combination with uppers like these:

Although synoptically the GFS might not be precisely what coldies were after, it does deliver an alternative method of obtaining wintry weather in deep winter: Get the cold in first, and then any pattern that prevents mild southerlies pushing it out will be sufficient to sustain it. The cold gets in early next week (cross-model agreement getting better for that), and then a jet profile like the GFS is showing at D10 either locks the majority of mild air further south, or ushers it east before it can make sufficient inroads towards the UK:

 

As a result, a pattern than looked lost to cold at D9 recovers quickly to this by D11:

The moral of recent GFS runs, therefore: There's more than one way to crack a nut.

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Shorter term pain for long term gain on this run,which is what I wanted.

I'd rather keep us all in cold than frontal snow for me.

I know it'll change but that's a great run for me

I agree with this. I'd much prefer it be bone dry than risk a slushfest. As it is features could pop up to surprise  some of us, if not then at least we hang on to the cold 

[February1978]

58 minutes ago, TillyS said:

I mean, strictly speaking the CET is above average. Has been well above average for the first third of the month: 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

It has felt really cold these past two days in the south, and in some cases and places has been cold, but empirically speaking not very. And temps are nudging upwards this week. So, no, not ideal ahead of the apparent snow event next week.

We need deep embedded cold. This isn’t that.

 

This isn't right. The 8.2C figure in the mild and wet start of the month just hasn't been updated. It will be much lower now.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel  given the nh profile?

Firstly let’s get the southerly tracking LPs as per GFS 06z, then the confirmation of further warming….then we can see how the vortex reacts.  There’s certainly signs of shallow wedge of higher pressure developing over there to start with

 BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

Here comes the scandi height rise

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, Arch Stanton said:

With the Jet Stream predicted to steam into Iberia next week, does that mean the battleground scenarios for snow/rain along the M4 corridor are no longer an issue and snow should be had for all?

It will depend on the shape of approaching systems from the west but yes more chance of us all staying the colder side of the Jet and more wintery potential to anything falling from the sky. Specifics left to nearer the time but the pattern looks primed for the Jet to stay south for a while.

[Kentspur]

Would be great to see  GFS snow accumulation chart like latest 6z come off for once

[Met4Cast]

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

[Johnp]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Interesting that there’s no complicated shortwaves over Greenland or Iceland. 

[AltonMatthew]

Anyone else seeing the models do their typical pushback on these outcomes, particularly around the delivery of wintry precipitation. 

 

It seems we continue to only see the benefits of sustained cold out in FI only for it to be pushed back further. I am a fan of the cold weather, but bitterly cold and dry isnt very fun at all. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

What model do you think that is closest too,

[Derecho]

 - Later stages of GFS

 - December 2022

Those commenting on the lack of snow.... the upper level trough means that there would be snowy features in there somewhere. Just the models won't be expected to pick them up at this range.

Though hemispherically different, the later stages of the GFS remind me of the very cold and unsettled weekend in mid-December 2022 with snow in the south.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

That is a beauty of a fax chart.  Northerly plunge very much in charge.

Look at north tip of Scotland…trough number 1…that’s really cold air behind that

 

BFTP

Edited January 10 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It's worth remembering how that snowfall in parts of Cumbria caught everyone out in December, including the met office.

What happened with that? could of sworn i saw an amber warning, did they get the area wrong or was it that it was such a pasting that it should have been a red?

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Love the fax charts as they always show more isobars and that’s got direct northerly all over it and troughs embedded heading down in the flow

[Cuban Zebra]

Only for fun at this range, but go on GFS!!!!

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Would be great to see  GFS snow accumulation chart like latest 6z come off for once

I'm sure many in here will agree this is the best outcome for 'all' because it brings snow to the south east 

Common conception is that frontal snow is bad because it always means a return to mild weather, which simply isn't true. Plus, frontal snow doesn't need as cold an airmass as convective snow.

Just things that frustrate me in this forum. It would though be surprising if there weren't other smaller features popping up in such an unstable and messy looking flow. They're just always likely to be more localised and often but not always smaller amount of snow than from a front.

Edited January 10 by MattStoke

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Would be great to see  GFS snow accumulation chart like latest 6z come off for once

An odd chart, not that these are reliable. I mean odd that you get a covering but so does the North  West. Usually one of us would miss out.