Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Battleground Snow]

Gem v gfs for comparison and we know where that went by day 10.

 

[Zero Visibility]

 

0z v 06z

[TEITS]

13 minutes ago, TillyS said:

This is no ’63

Let's see. I’m in the wary camp this morning but then that’s my default as I’ve been let down sooooo many times in this country.

Anyway, on my travels again shortly. Have just booked some time in the Cairngorms next month. That should means some snow  

No sadly it isn't and I would of loved to experienced it. Still have the great 1978 blizzard as my first memory. I envy your break in the Cairngorms as i've never been further N than Newcastle!

Much better 06Z with the GH extending further S.

 

[pdiddy]

massive changes again this morning, which is to be expected, given the lack of consensus.

[northwestsnow]

Day 7 

00z v 6z

BOOOOOOOM..

[Ice Day]

Just now, Continental Climate said:

Renewal of heights to.our north west. Alright not a technical greenie high but an impressive wedge nonetheless. That's what we need to see ppl heights building and blocking establishing 

Yes, as you and others have pointed out, the reinforcements into Greenland are really helping here. 

168

 

[winterof79]

Just now, Zero Visibility said:

 

0z v 06z

Upgrade in my eyes

[Aiden2012]

Oooo gfs getting back in the game

[winterof79]

What's that developing ooop North

 

za

[EML Network]

24 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Going to disagree with some of the posts today especially with regards to the initial N,ly and how far S this spreads.

If you remember for my location there was a lot of scatter with regards to the N,ly around 16th Jan. Now we have a solid cluster around -8C which for my location isn't bad for a N,ly. Also take note how even 11 days away the mean is still at -4C.

ECM ensembles for my location is also at -4C upto 20th Jan. This might not sound very cold but could be cold enough for snowfall, should fronts move in from the S.

 

Next take a look at ECM for N France. The mean suggests the operational was too far N.

So in summary. We begin with a N,ly, followed by a potential snow event next week (No idea where). Possibly turning less cold for the S before turning back colder again from the N into the following weekend with further snowfall opportunities. Into the following week i.e 21st Jan onwards the potential for an E,ly as I mentioned a few days ago. If this doesn't occur then still likely to remain on the cold side with further snowfall especially for the N as the pattern of blocking and a jet stream further S than normal looks the most likely outcome.

Just remember even during the classic winters of 63 (even though I wasn't born) at times the blocking did relent and briefly the upper temps increased but surface temps remained cold. 

Couldn't agree more with this, maybe I'm showing my inexperience but what was potentially looking like a game over scenario only a few days ago, with dartboard lows pushing right up across the UK has certainly eased off from that and things look finely balanced once again, not saying that still won't happen, but I agree with what you are saying, that's what the trend looks like to me too. 

Keeps us in the hunt 

[Johnp]

What I would *really* love to see is high pressure forming over ‘the top’ of the Scandi pv and help to force it all south and then westwards. Sorry if greedy. Would then prolong the spell too. 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is what I have in mind when VIEWING EC/ UK @bluearmy

Day 7

This what we had for Monday morning a couple days ago 

now it looks like it’s 48 hours later 

will we see other shortwaves/surpise ridges thrown in over the next two days to make it Friday ….. at some point the scandi trough will relax its push sw 

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well gfs has finally lost it’s overdone retrograde of the low heights through Greenland (aka the bulge) 

that will help it 

A much better polar profile helps:

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well gfs has finally lost it’s overdone retrograde of the low heights through Greenland (aka the bulge) 

that will help it 

Yrs, just wish it was the 12z ECM - it's going to be a bonker.

[Johnp]

Almost straight down the middle

[fromey]

morning all, if im seeing this right its the Low off of the eastern side of Canada which is helping throw a ridge of high pressure up in front of it which in turn gives us some breathing room?? 

[LRD]

The GFS was back in the cold game with last night's 18z. It's just upgrading now. Still looks like it made the right call cutting of the initial N'ly

Will a signal for Scandi Heights emerge once again later in this run?

Edited January 10 by LRD

[winterof79]

Unstable very cold air

[Ice Day]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yrs, just wish it was the 12z ECM - it's going to be a bonker.

That's a new one 

It is starting to look a bit like this morning's GEM at 192, and that's a good thing.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Some of the crowd were on the pitch ,they thought it was all over ...

 

Then came 6z 

[Aiden2012]

I do have 1 complaint in the terms of no snow hardly

[sheikhy]

Well that could be that and there could upgrades from here on in!!man the gfs has put us through a right stinker over the last 2 days!!!so thats gfs ukmo and ecm that have upgraded this morning and all on the same sheet!!!!

[Bricriu]

Where did this  GFS run come from. Could this be the model getting a handle on all the recent warmings in the strat?

[fellmike]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Some of the crowd were on the pitch ,they thought it was all over ...

 

Then came 6z 

I bet James Madden is having a baby now!!!

 

[Continental Climate]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

A much better polar profile helps:

Such massive changes and this is only a week away. There will be more waxing and waning yet that's for sure. Look at that NH profile. Like someone said if we can get some high pressure to develop svalbard/northern scandi that could push that lobe of the vortex down into Europe and we could then be engulfed in a raging polar vortex induced easterly and a 78 type blizzard. That's what I'm going for anyway.