Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Paul]

Just made this guide, as it may be useful for those who'd prefer to read a more curated version of the forums: 

 

[Liam J]

Well…. 6z GFS is nothing short of epic vs previous runs with a great NH profile.

Good to see it jump on board eventually… from zero to hero lol here’s hoping for a fab set of 12z runs later  

 

[That ECM]

When it’s rubbish we need to see where it sits. Do we need to this time now it’s awesome? 
 

nah

[stewfox]

44 minutes ago, TillyS said:

I mean, strictly speaking the CET is above average. Has been well above average for the first third of the month: 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

It has felt really cold these past two days in the south, and in some cases and places has been cold, but empirically speaking not very. And temps are nudging upwards this week. So, no, not ideal ahead of the apparent snow event next week.

We need deep embedded cold. This isn’t that.

 

8.2c ? It's 4.8c currently.  Not sure where that link came from. 

[winterof79]

Attendant to very cold unstable air come these little babies

[AdrianHull]

Right let's bin the ECM. GFS is the best model now after hating it last night

In all seriousness after it's little stutter on the 16th from the higher pressure pushing in from the west and a delay of 48 hours it's now showing a cold Northly feed from the 18th.

I haven't got a clue what's happening next week. This chop and changing is making me fatigued.

Big improvement though

[sorepaw1]

Sorry for not posting a chart, I struggle with Internet complications where I live, far to slow to load sometimes, 06z looks a lot better upto 168hrs. The Greenland High looks stronger and better placed , and the lows seem to be giving us a better Northerly,  they seems by next Tuesday/ Wednesday low pressure around the SW that could potentially keep us all on our toes,  and mix a few surprises. Again I'm sorry for the lack of charts. I've been a member on here 10 years , and lived in the same house, and even in 2024 my Internet connection is not much better..

 

Edited January 10 by sorepaw1
Spelling

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

When it’s rubbish we need to see where it sits. Do we need to this time now it’s awesome? 
 

nah

Within the new Envelope you mean

[Johnp]

Please don’t worry about precipitation. That run would produce snow, regardless of what the model is showing.

We’ve seen it many times before. 

[NewEra21]

Well, well, well. A low going south and missing the UK and heading into France. Game on

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, AdrianHull said:

Right let's bin the ECM. GFS is the best model now after hating it last night

 

Because it was wrong last night and I clearly explained why...I told people to bin it, but was ignored

[Mcconnor8]

Beautiful to see the jet that far South!!!

[IDO]

My best case scenario was that we could sustain the cold after the GH with a NW to SE jet and wedges. This run is spot-on:

The GH has a short half-life, so before the Pacific high build on the Asian-Pacific side, establishing the trough and digging deep was the target.

[Eskimo]

Jet stream on its way to Iberia for some Winter sun. 

[MattStoke]

Mid week low clearly much further south on the 6z vs the 0z.

A colder and much drier (For southern areas) run. Less exciting in terms of snow prospects, discounting any small features that won't be modelled at such range.

Edited January 10 by MattStoke

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Where did this  GFS run come from. Could this be the model getting a handle on all the recent warmings in the strat?

As LRD says and I agree, the signs were there on the 18z.  I also think moving on that the 00z was better than yesterday’s 00z…like for like

 BFTP

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Well, well, well. A low going south and missing the UK and heading into France. Game on

Yes, but it's a pretty snowless run for most as a consequence. 

Some snow was meant to arrive Monday for many, now we're back to a week away at least outside of Scotland. 

[Neilsouth]

9 minutes ago, LRD said:

The GFS was back in the cold game with last night's 18z. It's just upgrading now. Still looks like it made the right call cutting of the initial N'ly

Will a signal for Scandi Heights emerge once again later in this run?

I'm expecting a Scandi high pressure to form either late Jan or Feb, conditions are ripe for one to form! Nearly had one this week 

[Malarky]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Beautiful to see the jet that far South!!!

With the jet that far south and a technical SSW close to being forecast around the 17th, end of Jan/early Feb could be beautiful.

In honour of Scott, I’ll say 30 Jan.

[Eskimo]

UK ends up under a slack flow meaning temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for most next week. 

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but it's a pretty snowless run for most as a consequence. 

Some snow was meant to arrive Monday for many, now we're back to a week away at least outside of Scotland. 

In terms of frontal snowfall yes but you can guarantee disturbances would arise closer to the time 

[That ECM]

Like es “what was the snow storm like? Not bad got 6 inches, tomorrows looks better though”

Edited January 10 by That ECM

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

As LRD says and I agree, the signs were there on the 18z.  I also think moving on that the 00z was better than yesterday’s 00z…like for like

 BFTP

Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel  given the nh profile?

[Aiden2012]

Ey up is that high pressure moving to Scandinavia

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Malarky said:

With the jet that far south and a technical SSW close to being forecast around the 17th, end of Jan/early Feb could be beautiful.

In honour of Scott, I’ll say 30 Jan.

30/1 Malarky Day.  There is a renewed warming forecast too.

 

BFTP