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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

cold feed cut off by surface high to our west - however the azore low looks far more slider type at 120.

image.thumb.png.3e7447bd0eaebba599ad2c24b14819e9.png

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Tamara
Tamara

Bom dia e todos☺️ I make no apologies for yet again re-pasting this sequence originally posted just prior to New Year, because it has become an even more focused roadmap. Not just for the upcomin

Tamara
Tamara

References, as ever, crop up to x+y= responses to MJO phases in isolation. Again, to keep reiterating, tropical AND extra tropical wind-flow has to be assessed in respect of synoptic responses. There

MattH
MattH

Just a quick post but the reason for the quick transition to the westerly type is, in my opinion, linked to the recent weakening of the strat vortex and how, within the lower layers of the strat/top o

Posted Images

Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted (edited)

If I was living in the north of England I'd overall be happy with the output. You have a greater chance of a snow event or  it stays  cold and dry  throughout. Places further south could well just have snow to rain. I would prefer everything corrected further south in that scenario and we just stayed as things are now,  cold and dry

Edited by Bricriu
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

cold feed cut off by surface high to our west - however the azore low looks far more slider type at 120.

image.thumb.png.3e7447bd0eaebba599ad2c24b14819e9.png

Yeh this might get interesting around 168

Heights a little stronger in the north Atlantic pushing the pattern further south 

Edited by Battleground Snow
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

It isn't a big win for anything yet, because none if it has happened

All evidence pointing to it being right though, Warren. All other models have followed it. Yes, it could flip back. But it probably won't

Splitting hairs of course - cold via a N'ly or cold via wedges and a S'ly tracking jet. Result = cold. Could be disruptive with the latter option

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The one thing the GFS has changed since yesterday is that whilst it still has the Scandi trough and the low heights over Canada interacting, we are not seeing the door shut in regards to the ridging, instead parcels of cold air are sheering off and the ridge is then allowed to try and push polewards again. As such that does give scope for a weaker cut off high on our side of the pole. But it is going to be a while before this is resolved.

Heh the 06z may actually restore the extended ridge later on here, despite looking iffy early on.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Massive change on the gfs and for the better so far up to 144 hours❄️!!!

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
Just now, LRD said:

All evidence pointing to it being right though, Warren. All other models have followed it. Yes, it could flip back. But it probably won't

Splitting hairs of course - cold via a N'ly or cold via wedges and a S'ly tracking jet. Result = cold. Could be disruptive with the latter option

So you are saying the much maligned GFS was right. Let's hope its right in deep fi then. Or will that be another wild goose chase where the signal gets dropped closer to the time its signalled to happen.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

This is the point where the HP cell near Greenland shears off, taking with it the sustainability of the GH and sticking it to us, delaying the northerly:

T114: image.thumb.png.f8d87065ec2d054e1d8da76e45b75dfa.png T126: image.thumb.png.faf562a0f4a01fbed60fbeb22d7b9313.png

Those yellows disappear in 12 hours as the energy flow splits three ways.

It is slower than the 0z. Can the second northerly dig south enough before the lows arrive?

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

To my untrained eye, there is a polar low in that flow to are north? 

image.thumb.png.66bff6fd1d4271664c136c37463e509b.png

Much better so far!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

144 

image.thumb.png.aa70faf9e1bf234f7d92d02651a450ba.png

Boooooooomer

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well this is a bit different from the GFS.

image.thumb.png.5aed040b5e789d832a30aa339c2b3063.png image.thumb.png.69d1d246a95f670a7894d88198342816.png

Deep cold heading into Scotland at 150

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

So you are saying the much maligned GFS was right. Let's hope its right in deep fi then. Or will that be another wild goose chase where the signal gets dropped closer to the time its signalled to happen.

Well, as Warren rightly says - it ain't happened yet. But it's difficult to argue that the other models have not moved, significantly, towards it overnight. Could be more interesting cos of it. 

I am still hugely confident of cold happening, which I've been for the last 2 weeks. Could be disruptive too although less confidence on that

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

My god this could be a beauty at 168 hours!!!!

Easier to see the reason why on the anomaly charts.

Perhaps it's sniffing the gem route?

 

gfsnh-12-150.png

gfsnh-12-156.png

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

This ridge off the esb seems to give us enough buffer to allow another push down from the north. 

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

Ridge going up it the Atlantic to support the Greenland high. Honestly this is the most crazy chase in a long time 

IMG_0238.png

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

Well this is a bit different from the GFS.

image.thumb.png.5aed040b5e789d832a30aa339c2b3063.png image.thumb.png.69d1d246a95f670a7894d88198342816.png

Deep cold heading into Scotland at 150

Renewal of heights to.our north west. Alright not a technical greenie high but an impressive wedge nonetheless. That's what we need to see ppl heights building and blocking establishing 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

Second cold push from the North better but still stalling now a little bit.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted

Well gfs has finally lost it’s overdone retrograde of the low heights through Greenland (aka the bulge) 

that will help it 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Difficult as it is just for one minute. Look at the nhp and smile. 
 

ok back to details.😄😄

IMG_1013.png

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