Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

Community Team
 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

Recommended Posts

TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

cold feed cut off by surface high to our west - however the azore low looks far more slider type at 120.

image.thumb.png.3e7447bd0eaebba599ad2c24b14819e9.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted (edited)

If I was living in the north of England I'd overall be happy with the output. You have a greater chance of a snow event or  it stays  cold and dry  throughout. Places further south could well just have snow to rain. I would prefer everything corrected further south in that scenario and we just stayed as things are now,  cold and dry

Edited by Bricriu
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

cold feed cut off by surface high to our west - however the azore low looks far more slider type at 120.

image.thumb.png.3e7447bd0eaebba599ad2c24b14819e9.png

Yeh this might get interesting around 168

Heights a little stronger in the north Atlantic pushing the pattern further south 

Edited by Battleground Snow
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

It isn't a big win for anything yet, because none if it has happened

All evidence pointing to it being right though, Warren. All other models have followed it. Yes, it could flip back. But it probably won't

Splitting hairs of course - cold via a N'ly or cold via wedges and a S'ly tracking jet. Result = cold. Could be disruptive with the latter option

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The one thing the GFS has changed since yesterday is that whilst it still has the Scandi trough and the low heights over Canada interacting, we are not seeing the door shut in regards to the ridging, instead parcels of cold air are sheering off and the ridge is then allowed to try and push polewards again. As such that does give scope for a weaker cut off high on our side of the pole. But it is going to be a while before this is resolved.

Heh the 06z may actually restore the extended ridge later on here, despite looking iffy early on.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 3
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
Just now, LRD said:

All evidence pointing to it being right though, Warren. All other models have followed it. Yes, it could flip back. But it probably won't

Splitting hairs of course - cold via a N'ly or cold via wedges and a S'ly tracking jet. Result = cold. Could be disruptive with the latter option

So you are saying the much maligned GFS was right. Let's hope its right in deep fi then. Or will that be another wild goose chase where the signal gets dropped closer to the time its signalled to happen.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

This is the point where the HP cell near Greenland shears off, taking with it the sustainability of the GH and sticking it to us, delaying the northerly:

T114: image.thumb.png.f8d87065ec2d054e1d8da76e45b75dfa.png T126: image.thumb.png.faf562a0f4a01fbed60fbeb22d7b9313.png

Those yellows disappear in 12 hours as the energy flow splits three ways.

It is slower than the 0z. Can the second northerly dig south enough before the lows arrive?

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

To my untrained eye, there is a polar low in that flow to are north? 

image.thumb.png.66bff6fd1d4271664c136c37463e509b.png

Much better so far!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well this is a bit different from the GFS.

image.thumb.png.5aed040b5e789d832a30aa339c2b3063.png image.thumb.png.69d1d246a95f670a7894d88198342816.png

Deep cold heading into Scotland at 150

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

So you are saying the much maligned GFS was right. Let's hope its right in deep fi then. Or will that be another wild goose chase where the signal gets dropped closer to the time its signalled to happen.

Well, as Warren rightly says - it ain't happened yet. But it's difficult to argue that the other models have not moved, significantly, towards it overnight. Could be more interesting cos of it. 

I am still hugely confident of cold happening, which I've been for the last 2 weeks. Could be disruptive too although less confidence on that

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

This ridge off the esb seems to give us enough buffer to allow another push down from the north. 

spacer.png

  • Like 1
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

Ridge going up it the Atlantic to support the Greenland high. Honestly this is the most crazy chase in a long time 

IMG_0238.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

Well this is a bit different from the GFS.

image.thumb.png.5aed040b5e789d832a30aa339c2b3063.png image.thumb.png.69d1d246a95f670a7894d88198342816.png

Deep cold heading into Scotland at 150

Renewal of heights to.our north west. Alright not a technical greenie high but an impressive wedge nonetheless. That's what we need to see ppl heights building and blocking establishing 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Second cold push from the North better but still stalling now a little bit.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well gfs has finally lost it’s overdone retrograde of the low heights through Greenland (aka the bulge) 

that will help it 

  • Like 10
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Difficult as it is just for one minute. Look at the nhp and smile. 
 

ok back to details.😄😄

IMG_1013.png

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...