Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The main bit of the low isn't arriving until the next day

Still plenty of movement possible in the low I guess, NH wise it’s another upgrade though

[Hammy79]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What surprises me is the Met Office more or less went for the low pressure to be further North. Its almost certain now that won't happen 

They can only go off the data that they have in front of them at the time and hence why its highlighted as a risk rather than a dead cert. 

The GFS 6Z takes the system just south of the UK and wouldn't take much to bring that Risk back into play. 

Anyway,

Much better from the 6z for longevity- lets see where it takes us further on 

 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

It is much better run on the ESB high/ridge, which will impact the following low that flattened the pattern:

06z:  0z: 

looks like that low is heading up the west coast of Greenland

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Still plenty of movement possible in the low I guess, NH wise it’s another upgrade though

Yeh, it won't be pinned down for days yet, it did suprise me why the met office did a whole video on a system that is over a week away.

[tight isobar]

Forming Chanel low.. honestly if your not happy with these winter Synoptics/ possibilities.. give up the ghost!!! The 6z has everything wintery “ possible “.. and will like throughout the ..

Edited January 11 by tight isobar

[Matt Jones]

In the shorter term there is no denying the initial northerly blast is swiped away faster now than modelled a few days back low 850's getting mixed out quickly before reloads from the north but how potent will that really turn out to be is the question. Would have much preferred a straight northerly sustained a little longer but they seem hard to come by these days.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Forming Chanel low.. honestly if your not happy with these winter Synoptics/ possibilities.. give up the ghost!!! The 6z has everything wintery “ possible “.. and will like throughout the ..

It feels like upto 180h GFS 06z has everything wintry possible but lets us have none of it. I'm hopeful we see changes in the modelled positioning of the lows etc.

[Ali1977]

It would be nice if that happened 

[Ice Day]

We're getting close to a day 7/8 consensus, ECM and GFS very much on the same page

  

Fine details to be ironed, but we seem to be getting somewhere.  As @Captain Shortwave says above, a few tweaks either way and it could be success or failure, but we're in the game still!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It would be nice if that happened 

It won’t.

[tight isobar]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

It feels like upto 180h GFS 06z has everything wintry possible but lets us have none of it. I'm hopeful we see changes in the modelled positioning of the lows etc.

It’s almost a certainty kasim @changes on scale as we approach the outbreak.. I’m happy as a pig in poo right now

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It would be nice if that happened 

It's gonna have a go in next few frames.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

It won’t.

How about a small piece of it ?

[Lukesluckybunch]

At day 8 we are so close to something very cold!.doesn't look like making it on this run..

[January Snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Is it not likely for the models to trend back further north?

No

[Met4Cast]

Unsurprisingly the low has now trended to the south of the UK across most modelling. 80% chance now the precipitation doesn’t reach the south coast. 

The benefit of this is much colder air remains in place. 

[IanT]

3 minutes ago, Hammy79 said:

They can only go off the data that they have in front of them at the time and hence why its highlighted as a risk rather than a dead cert. 

The GFS 6Z takes the system just south of the UK and wouldn't take much to bring that Risk back into play. 

Anyway,

Much better from the 6z for longevity- lets see where it takes us further on 

 

This.

It has long been my view that the MetO aren’t any more precise with their forecasting than many of the excellent posters here. They are far more precise with their use of language though, and particularly disciplined in their deployment of “terms of estimative probability”. 

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Net wx cup first round first half.

 

COLD 1 MILD 0 

Scorer: Arctic 18mins

Dances through the box with an ice cold finish.

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

At day 8 we are so close to something very cold!.doesn't look like making it on this run..

We've been at that stage for 3 weeks . My opinion is taking all models that we remain cold if not very cold with very little ppn right through next week. Not what I want but I know some want a drying out so that's fair enough

[cheshire snow]

Well something of interest UKV

Cheshire gap snow showers on Monday then a bit more snow for northern areas.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

We've been at that stage for 3 weeks . My opinion is taking all models that we remain cold if not very cold with very little ppn right through next week. Not what I want but I know some want a drying out so that's fair enough

Yea it's not far off January weather tbh..just colder then average..over hyped a little in thinking..let's hope for some serious upgrades

[IDO]

We may see 1-2 days more of those -5c uppers based on this run versus 0z.

But the issue remains that inter and cross-model support for the NH profile to reflect something like the following is very consistent:

With the Pacific high/ridge kicking out the tPV; it has to go somewhere. 

Edited January 11 by IDO

[Eagle Eye]

The southwards trend if it keeps going further, could help pull down that energy to our north carrying enough water vapour transport for snow showers to keep popping up along lobes of vorticity. Currently most of it stays in the north and Scotland but as we come closer to time, a small southwards trend along w/new discovered PV lobes could pull down some snow showers further south. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yeh, it won't be pinned down for days yet, it did suprise me why the met office did a whole video on a system that is over a week away.

To control the narrative from as early as possible

They know so-called journalists from nasty, horrible rags like the Express and Mail will hype it up and say the Met Office said this, that and the other when they didn't. These vids give them a bit of a head start (and proof) on all that guff

Onto the models, cold is nailed as I said as early as last week (shameless self-congratulation there, I know. But, hey, why not?). It likely won't last beyond 22nd/23rd but I suspect it will be back towards the start of Feb. Who gets frontal, disruptive snow next week (IF anyone does) won't start to become clear until Sunday at the earliest. So, in terms of the micro detail, it's not really worth getting too high or too low until Sunday evening. Even if it misses everyone there could still be surprises

Happy hunting for those who want snow

[Scandinavian High.]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Unsurprisingly the low has now trended to the south of the UK across most modelling. 80% chance now the precipitation doesn’t reach the south coast. 

The benefit of this is much colder air remains in place. 

Yep looking that way now I’m not to far from you location . in this setup do we have any chance snow I know north as a better shout thank you.