Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Catacol]

23 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Wouldn't lose any sleep over this timid threat of snow now, it's starting to fall in line with the weather the country has had prior to this cooler spell.

Yeah - charts like this come thick and fast in most UK winters.

 

 

[E17boy]

Morning peeps 

What the hell is going on this morning in the models. I have never seen so much uncertainty. We have not got a clue as to how next week is going to pan out

I am loving all the comments though I must say next few days are going to be interesting model watching. 
 

uncertainties for next week

how cold is it going to be?

who will get snow?

will it continue this cold?

will it go mild later?

or will the cold be extended?

is there signs of at last Scandi heights???

We are in the unknown at the moment. A lot to be resolved a lot of ifs and buts to get through.

Out of all this us coldies live in that hope that maybe maybe something is afoot.

 

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES 

Have a nice Friday all

[KTtom]

4 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

Awesome charts this morning with the depth of cold upgrading big time!! Ice days and widespread snow now becoming more and more likely!! Fair play to Met Office again! Widespread disruption likely by as early as Tuesday!!

Not sure if this is sarcasm? Apologies if not but can you back that up with some charts.. Maybe, the far south and far north but I'm missing this widespread snow...once again looks like a soft breakdown end of next week going by the longer term models (gfs & ECM)

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Gowon said:

It's funny how all the ppn disappears when there's cold weather around.

There is a scientific reason for this 

[topo]

I think there are pretty strong background signals for 200hrs onwards..

It can't be a coincidence that all models agree into an Atlantic driven weather with milder conditions in NW Europe and Scandinavia.

 

[MJB]

36 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Long way back to cold with that.. embrace the next week team...it could be the only decent shot this year

It is a long way back and nothing like the MET forecast 

[Jason M]

Just looked through latest GEFS out to 240. 

Ensemble member 7 shows a seamless transition into a potent easterly (which does make sense). Its a lone ranger though within the suite and most show a move to milder with a strong build in heights to our south. 

[Neilsouth]

Look how "DRY" the last spell of winter was! Lots of people said that under the high pressure there would be mainly flurries in the East/South East as the air is too dry. Yet some parts had 5CM of snow fall with the cold upgraded nearer the time as well. You CANNOT accurately forecast snowfall so far ahead. Lets get the cold in first

[Frostbite80]

CFS for once please be right 

[Gowon]

Just now, bluearmy said:

There is a scientific reason for this 

Colder air is drier?

Sublimination? 

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yeah - charts like this come thick and fast in most UK winters.

 

 

No one is arguing that synoptically things looks great with rare Arctic air making an appearance and bitter cold is a certainty.

What is currently frustrating is the lack of snow falling for 75% of the population. 

Things could change of course.

[damianslaw]

The old adage phrases that will annoy some, but are wise words in such scenarios, which I won't repeat over what are likely to be 3 exhausting days in the model thread, but should be taken heed over:

1. Stick to the reliable timeframe, which will be 96-120 hrs tops, indeed in terms of snowfall prospects less than 24 hrs..

2. Let the cold in first, this in itself will be a key determinant of developments. Just as in summer, the models often too keen to remove notable heat, often the same with notable cold, and I do foresee notable cold on the cards, not standard mid winter cold, talking widely uppers below -7 degrees, and -10 degrees Scotland, sub 522 dam air north half UK. 

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, damianslaw said:

The old adage phrases that will annoy some, but are wise words in such scenarios, which I won't repeat over what are likely to be 3 exhausting days in the model thread, but should be taken heed over:

1. Stick to the reliable timeframe, which will be 96-120 hrs tops, indeed in terms of snowfall prospects less than 24 hrs..

2. Let the cold in first, this in itself will be a key determinant of developments. Just as in summer, the models often too keen to remove notable heat, often the same with notable cold, and I do foresee notable cold on the cards, not standard mid winter cold, talking widely uppers below -7 degrees, and -10 degrees Scotland, sub 522 dam air north half UK. 

Should pin this message haha, I really do think there will be surprises for many over the next week which models simply can't pick up on at this range.

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Colder air is drier?

Sublimination? 

BINGO!!!!ive been banging on bout this for years now!!!!this same set up when its milder will always bring showers more widely inland!!!kinda dead if you ask me lol!!!

[damianslaw]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Should pin this message haha, I really do think there will be surprises for many over the next week which models simply can't pick up on at this range.

Sadly will fall on death ears I feel, but a regular posting every few hours over next 3 days would be justified..

[Purga]

There are some interesting options being thrown up in the 06z GEFS showing a Scandi HP developing after next weekend. Would be excellent.

P7 = very nice!                                                                      P10

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

BINGO!!!!ive been banging on bout this for years now!!!!this same set up when its milder will always bring showers more widely inland!!!kinda dead if you ask me lol!!!

 

It's not always true though, but it does get drier.

 

[sunnijim]

This mornings fax charts show the 528 dam line clearing South at mid day Monday, then being pushed North again on Tuesdsy by High pressure on the near continent.

Not sure that was in the script?

A clean clearance and cold air sweeping into France by Monday evening and staying piut until at least Friday, was the expectancy....chart looks a bit messy on Tuesday with more if a West Northwesterly kink in the isobars.

Hope the Wednesday fax sees that dam line clear South again.

 

[Penguin16]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No one is arguing that synoptically things looks great with rare Arctic air making an appearance and bitter cold is a certainty.

What is currently frustrating is the lack of snow falling for 75% of the population. 

Things could change of course.

Cheer up you’re under a snow warning for Monday that mentions snow falling to all levels and being driven far inland thanks to brisk northerly winds.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It's not always true though, but it does get drier.

 

Defo drier mate thats why theres lack of precipitation inland unless wind direction works out favourably!!!!

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

00z shows currently where we are and where the next direction of travel may be, like some have alluded to in post look towards Scandi there looks like some sort of pattern change coming up for the 27th onwards but I’m happy with the output it’s dry we aren’t under a Atlantic influence dry just above temps or below that’s good better than being underwater which many have. 

30 percent of the ENS still show that low pressure heading into the south (some into the midlands) mid next week - so still a chance for something significant - I’ll be very surprised if that METO text isn’t changed a little today - to say unlikely!! Especially as none of the models we can see (bar the navgem) are showing that!! 

Edited January 12 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Penguin16 said:

Cheer up you’re under a snow warning for Monday that mentions snow falling to all levels and being driven far inland thanks to brisk northerly winds.

I hear you, but emphasis is more on ice than snow away from the North Derry and Antrim coasts.

[Gowon]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Defo drier mate thats why theres lack of precipitation inland unless wind direction works out favourably!!!!

I know what you mean, but watch that video Danm posted - 2010 had plenty of ppn

[Rob 79812010]

1 hour ago, danm said:

Correct, I remember this event only being forecast a day or two before it happened, it ended up giving many in the south a big dump of snow, particularly central Southern England. 

 

Nothing widespread in terms of snow showing at the moment for next week, but that is usually the case except in situations where we have battleground snow events. Many easterlies often look dry, but then tend to produce more snow than is modelled several days away. 

Two other examples of short term forecasted, big snow events from northerlies for areas not prone to snow showers in northerlies - last December's 6 inch dumping for many in the S/SE was forecast at short notice, the embedded cold came from a northerly. 18th December 2010 - another potent Arctic blast that many thought looked dry, except for the usual spots prone to the wishbone effect - yet a circulation developed that again dumped several inches over the south. Not suggesting any of this will happen next week, but you can't write anything off. 

Does this happen when there's a slight switch to North westerly??

[Ali1977]

EC ENS and GEFS mean for Wednesday showing the scope of the low pressures position !! Clearly south of the M4 still in with a shout!! 

 

Edited January 12 by Ali1977