Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[mountain shadow]

Just now, KTtom said:

Goes to say, plenty of knowledge here in relation to the weather and background signals... forecasting for the UK is a different ball game..

Yes, I think The UK and Ireland only makes up about 0.1% of the earth's surface, so no matter what the grand synoptic look like, they can easily miss the UK due to a shortwave in the wrong place.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West.

Here's hoping February delivers.

Never once looked favourable for more than 4-5 days of cold / snow in the North.

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Come on guys it's very sombre in here ..

We have an extremely cold sun to Fri on most of the models this evening.

Snowfall might crop up unexpectedly  

But what good is it been cold if it’s just dry ? Then wet again after all this chase 

[on the coast]

The big problem on here is so many posters want a 47/63 and are hyped up by long range charts. Until the expectations become 96 at max then many won't feel let down. As it stand's for the UK next week at the moment is looking very cold for most. Yes we don't get the snow but we do get cold. Moral of the post is stop believing past 96.

Edited January 12 by on the coast

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Come on guys it's very sombre in here ..

We have an extremely cold sun to Fri on most of the models this evening.

Snowfall might crop up unexpectedly  

Not particularly likely if it isn't on the output and will only affect a very small few. If this cold spell was to be snowy widely we would be seeing it on output now.

[Jason M]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Never once looked favourable for more than 4-5 days of cold / snow in the North.

I largely agree. We may still have some drama midweek with the low and its exact track in the south / midlands. 

Seeing an increasing tendency for height rises to our south after next week and if that comes to pass, there is only one outcome from that.

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, on the coast said:

The big problem on here is so many posters want a 47/63 and are hyped up by long range charts. Until the expectations become 96 at max then many won't feel let down. As it stand's for the UK next week at the moment is looking very cold for most. Yes we don't get the snow but we do get cold. Moral of the post is stop believing past 120.

Exactly this. This time around the cold is in the reliable and the mild is out in FI. Still, no point pretending the ECM isn't disappointing, but it MAY change!?

[lorenzo]

At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 

1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc.

2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools.

Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster.

The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned.

And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario.

Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb.

[WinterOf47]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Personally if it’s just dry and cold next week and then the return to mild wet crap I’ll be done with the models, all the hype and build up only to get dry and cold time after time has took its toll on me tbh, I’m even loosing interest now as it’s just talk of breakdown etc on here. We get weeks of a chase with exciting looking charts only to get watered down as it gets nearer, happens pretty much every time.

sorry for the down beat post but just all feels a bit of a waste of time 

It certainly is a waste of time, whether it snows or not!

I am still hopeful of a blast along the south coast. it may be my last winter in the Northern hemisphere, and while I had my fill of snow after living in canada, I would love to go out with a bang. 5-10cms was on the OP GFS…i would settle for that, then check in my snow boots, snow shovels and head to kiwi land.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

But what good is it been cold if it’s just dry ? Then wet again after all this chase 

Agree, may as well have been mild all along, at least the EC in FI  looks fairly dry but maybe 14 degrees?

Edited January 12 by I remember Atlantic 252

[blizzard81]

That huge intense pv lobe heading off the eastern seaboard is just looking irresistible now at the end of next week. These US pv lobe bombs seem to happen every year now and it is these that scupper any chance of a meaningful and lasting cold spell in the UK. 

[The Northern Ramper]

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps for the peaks but majority of population it’s dry…

I’ll take the 7 cm’s please

[Met4Cast]

12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West.

Here's hoping February delivers.

Because of a single run? I think we need a little perspective here. 

We currently have below average/cold conditions across the UK and by the end of next week we would have had (apart from a couple of days) 2 weeks of colder, blocked conditions. Many southern areas saw snow (albeit not a lot) last Monday. 

We go into next week with much colder air moving south across the UK with increasing snow risks. 

Background forcing has done it’s job, the broadscale pattern is as advertised & expected, high latitude blocking is becoming established. 

The UK is a small island though so despite everything being favourable, blocking & cold conditions in place snow can still be elusive, but I don’t think it will be. 

Next week looks very unstable and open to small-scale features developing and bringing widespread snow risks, these may not be picked up until 12hrs before they arrive.

[Froze were the Days]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree, may as well have been mild all along, at least the EC in FI  looks fairly dry but maybe 14 degrees?

That's about as bad a chart all winter we've seen in terms of mild...so much for the metO saying a return to somewhat milder conditions, a lot at steak after this breakdown in the cold after next week.

[Bricriu]

31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West.

Here's hoping 

 

23 minutes ago, on the coast said:

The big problem on here is so many posters want a 47/63 and are hyped up by long range charts. Until the expectations become 96 at max then many won't feel let down. As it stand's for the UK next week at the moment is looking very cold for most. Yes we don't get the snow but we do get cold. Moral of the post is stop believing past 120.

You can nine times  out of 10 believe post t120 if it showing a return to mild  especially when that is backed up  broadly by the ensembles. I don't care how unique the set up is. We are very unlikely to see a switch to extending the cold now. It's just a question  of how long the milder turn lasts

Edited January 12 by Bricriu

[MattH]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 

1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc.

2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools.

Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster.

The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned.

And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario.

Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb.

Apologies for the 'one liner'...but this holds a lot of truth. 

Just like those that look for the heat and summer synoptics, those that like the winter synoptics just stop now, simply enjoy the week ahead. 

Don't "worry" about next weekend and what may follow, simply focus on the here and now and what is on the way next week. It'll be a great week of winter weather. 

With the longer term variables in play then I'm sure this will not be the only week with this kind of blocked pattern before the end of February. 

Tempus Fugit -  Sit back and enjoy some winter weather. 

Cheers. Matt. 

 

 

[ICE COLD]

Well I can officially declare the 6/7 week chase for for a cold snowy January over . We’ve got 5 or 6 days of cold weather to look forward too . Feel slightly  deflated by this end result but it is what it is . Hopefully a few surprises for as many as possible with snow . Good luck to those who are forecast snow . Now a few days off from chasing until the models show their next hand lol . Great chasing with you lot , shame it wasn’t the widespread snow we all crave (but that could change ) .

[blizzard81]

Just now, Bricriu said:

 

You can nine times  out of 10 believe post t120 if it showing a return mild especially when that is backed up  broadly by the ensembles. I don't care how unique the set up is. We are very unlikely to see a switch to extending the cold now. It's just a question  of how long the milder turn lasts

We just have to keep hoping that the ukmo is nailing this better than the other models but it is beginning to look increasingly isolated now. 

[danm]

21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well if the models are anything to go by ths evening then a lot of us are gona be wondering after all that effort on here what the heck the hype was all about!!nothing widespread in terms of snow and also milder weather moving in by end of next week!!!sure surprises shall turn up in a few spots though or maybe not!!!

With northerlies we’re almost always more reliant on troughs or disturbances cropping up or a battleground snow event, away from the most prone spots. Northerlies are rarely good for convective snow showers away from northern Scotland and some coastal areas. 

Easterlies are much better in this regard. 

However, it’s way too soon to write off snow chances next week. Things often pop up at short notice so no point writing off snow chances now. 

[Chesil View]

....and of course tonight's 12z are absolutely nailed for next week's weather. These are the same models that have vascillated on  putting the possible midweek snowfall anywhere between Birmingham and Bordeaux over the last 36 hours and yet this is the run that absolutely has everything nailed.   

 

[Bricriu]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We just have to keep hoping that the ukmo is nailing this better than the other models but it is beginning to look increasingly isolated now. 

When the UKMO is out on its own like this, it usually  backtracks to the other models.  Anyway  I am going to try and keep  Matt  Hugo's post in mind regarding next week.  It's going to be cold, and who knows surprises may pop up.  When was the last time we had a 4-5 day cold spell in January?

Edited January 12 by Bricriu

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

....and of course tonight's 12z are absolutely nailed for next week's weather. These are the same models that have vascillated on  putting the possible midweek snowfall anywhere between Birmingham and Bordeaux over the last 36 hours and yet this is the run that absolutely has everything nailed.   

 

I hear what you're saying but this is one of those scenarios where the longer term (from next weekend) broad picture is easier to predict than the shorter term detail

Several models including the EC46 (which I think has done well in predicting this chilly/cold weather) have long advertised a return of the Atlantic week of the 22nd. Might not last though

[Huntforsnow]

Is this the model thread or the moans thread? 

[SollyOlly]

Just now, LRD said:

I hear what you're saying but this is one of those scenarios where the longer term (from next weekend) broad picture is easier to predict than the shorter term detail

Several models including the EC46 (which I think has done well in predicting this chilly/cold weather) have long advertised a return of the Atlantic week of the 22nd. Might not last though

Yep, that's what I'm hoping (and I agree that the overall patterns have been well signalled). My only concern is that 'relaxations', when they come in terms of mild, tend to be very stubborn and hang around long past their welcome! I think that models have been signalling a brief relaxation followed by a return to something more seasonal, so let's hope so...

[Penguin16]

Does the warm sector on Tuesday look a cert or still up in the air?