Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Spah1]

What happened to the Met Office forecast ‘High pressure to remain to the NW of the uk?’. 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Cluster 2 please Mike !!

Day 15 toppler the extent of ambitions now is it?  

[Marting]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM extended clusters this morning do not bode well, T264+:

Choice of zonal, zonal, zonal, zonal or zonal, take your pick!

Just goes to show that things can flip quickly in the models and so I suspect tomorrow they will look vastly different again. You only have to look at the ECM 46 dayers and how yesterday was predicting 6c below norm on Monday 22nd, not looking quite as likely. However, who knows what is around the corner, well the professionals maybe, so eyes down for next chase starting tomorrow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Day 15 toppler the extent of ambitions now is it?  

Oh I suspect  we are looking at 10 days of dross...

EC 46 fairly consistent of pressure rise mid term...

I'll go with that.. 

[Jason H]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Day 15 toppler the extent of ambitions now is it?  

You don't get a choice with the weather. It'll do what it will do. 

Edited January 13 by Jason H

[James Maidstone]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's a shame the low isn't progged another 50 miles north that would have put some of our southern members in the game .

I'm not convinced the track of the lows is finalised yet either BTW ..

 

In terms of the track of a low 96+ hours out 50 miles is nothing.   I agree with this, although I think we need to be realistic now that it is an outside chance and the bulk of the model runs have in increasingly tracking South, well South in some cases, but there are some that don't and recent model runs to my untrained eye show the depth/strength of the Northerly as not quite as strong which potentially could help to buck the trend.

Personally I would wait until Monday for calling the Atlantic low a bust for frontal snow, however I would expect reasonable odds if I were to back it affecting mainland UK at this stage.

[Zero Visibility]

 

 

[Gadje]

8 minutes ago, tom_f123 said:

Without a doubt one of the biggest busts in NW model viewing history 

The worst ever

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So the cold spell hasn't arrived yet but all the talk is about a breakdown fri ?

Could it be the models are overdoing the zonal flow, no wedges or deflections will be sorted yet anyway. 

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

My back yard is Scotland, Ireland and Wales then? Most of the uk will see something.

By something, what do you mean, snow or frost?

[tight isobar]

As a southern contingent member, I feel as though I had an invite to the wedding of the year!- only to find out the groom is now banged up- the bride is missing n, they both now hate each other .. yet as a substitute the local drunk has he’s 40th in the local spit n sawdust boozer on the same day!.. a bit deflated for sure!! But on a serious note there still remains big scope/ hope for the northern contingent, and still outside chances further south- as pop up occlusions and / or developing shower activity in the flow materialize… what’s more im of high confidence that the Atlantic bash through may not survive to very long…  av a good day no matter what your preference/ persuasion

[Paul]

Please use the moans thread for non-model related pure moans etc. Let's try to keep this thread as model related as possible..

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99729-moans-and-ramps/?do=getNewComment

 

[Ice Day]

Well, that's a pretty awful bunch of 0z suites.  I've scoured the lot looking for chinks of light, but there's pretty much nothing to get excited about beyond day 6.  The good news is that we have a very cold and dry week coming up, and those lucky enough to live in the north of Scotland are going to see a lot of snow.

But, as the last week has shown, models can pick up a new signal and flip quickly, so let's hope the background drivers pick up on something new and deliver on the late January/February promise they've been hinting at.  

Other than that, there's going to be some beautiful winter weather around, so get out and enjoy it.  Charge your batteries for the next chase (don't pretend you won't be back!!).

 

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

What happened to the Met Office forecast ‘High pressure to remain to the NW of the uk?’. 

Well, they follow the same models and teleconnections that we do, they are no better at forecasting into mid term than some of the great folk on here.

 

[winterof79]

[Continental Climate]

Well i will put my slightly more positive head on now after the shock of earlier this morning. Hopefully i will get 3-5cm of snow Monday night into Tuesday for my area. If I do it could stick for a further 3 days with some quite severe frosts during those 3 days. It will all be gone by Fri night for sure but hopefully I get 3/4 days of wintry potential. Here's hoping eh!!!

[Barking_Mad]

31 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

Snow chances a plenty for Scotland, Ireland, Wales and northern England.

What a fantastic week ahead for most.

Exactly how the professionals called it.

[dixonoid]

That low that is progged to come into play next weekend looks quite strong, experience tells us these things always come in a bit weaker.

[Snowmad79]

9 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

This post will probably get removed but I needed to say this (what I think is) criticism of “Cheshire” is well wide of the mark, in my opinion. I suspect he doesn’t need me to defend him but he’s one of a select few on here who balances enthusiasm for cold with the realism of where things are heading, based on his experience. His relative quietness on here since this chase got moving was a warning sign to me, which has been borne out. Those of us who’ve followed this thread for years will know he would have been “all over this” cold spell had he had confidence it would have delivered.

 

Yes because the old and wise members know that things can and will go the way of the pear most of the time when model output reaches the reliable timeframes. There was never really anything special synoptic wise shown including the GL block which the models all watered down to an extent. Robust easterlies with undercutting lows are always the best for UK wide snow imo and as with model output, northerlies arn't great with the "wish bone effect". Even when a NW/ Westerly component kicks in temporarily, I don't expect much from it tbh.

I said it in the Regional thread.. Never set yourself up for a fall.

Edited January 13 by Snowmad79

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

21 minutes ago, Gadje said:

The worst ever

Obviously for more southern regions

[Bricriu]

5 hours ago, Continental Climate said:

By 20th of Jan its game over. We are down now to a 4/5 day cold snap. How can it collapse so quickly? 

The absence of a major ssw. I got shot down for highlighting this but  it lessens the chance of a messy and  transient outcome. Without it we see our old Pal  in Iberia spoiling things. The cold in North America doesn't help either,but the unusual  warmth  in North America during December didn't make much difference  either. Sods law - if it can go wrong on the micro level it usually  does despite the broadscale pattern looking promising  for sustained  cold.

Edited January 13 by Bricriu

[weathercold]

42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM extended clusters this morning do not bode well, T264+:

Choice of zonal, zonal, zonal, zonal or zonal, take your pick!

You can’t write it…gosh they are grim.

[SLEETY]

People are talking like there is no cold spell incoming lol, there is, it's just the end looks a lot quicker than it was, however the end of next week is a long time away in the weather world,so don't think it's a done deal yet. Anyway  I expect a few surprise  snow chances will appear over the next few days. 

[Harveyslugger]

2 minutes ago, danthetan said:

I haven't seen anything of note snow wise from a dangler since 2004 maybe 2010 or 2009 I can't fully remember, rare as hens teeth these days. Used to be more common when I was in school. 

Such a shame because they can deliver a proper dumping of snow

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

People are talking like there is no cold spell incoming lol, there is, it's just the end looks a lot quicker than it was, however the end of next week is a long time away in the weather world,so don't think it's a done deal yet. Anyway  I expect a few surprise  snow chances will appear over the next few days. 

There’s a cold spell, 3c daytime temps is undoubtably cold but the reality is comparable to the charts we saw this time last week it’s a disappointing outcome, it’s as rare as hens teeth to see this kind of chart in January and to not even see lying snow in 80%+ of the country from this is extremely disappointing, I think what’s more disheartening is the way the Canadian vortex is returning with merciless aggression, looking at it at day 8-10 range it’s running rampant, which we all know it’s deep trouble if you want cold.