Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[ThamesStreamer]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Indeed.. could go to the wire this one.  I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0

Exactly. Still suspect it might just miss us, but it's not set in stone.

 

A few variables will surely come into play on the system's journey?

 

It could deepen a little.

It could wrap-around/pivot slightly.

A slackening of the Northerlies could allow it a bit further North, although too far and it's rain in the South.

 

Not one to completely write off yet, and there might need to be some nowcasting mixed in as it comes onto the radar.

[PiscesStar]

Just now, throwoff said:

Seen it more than a couple of times. 50 miles is next to nothing in terms of systems of this size.

Got to hope it tracks further north for us to benefit from it

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

I note with interest where you are situated wud ukv be a good model to use? 

My view..so long as we have models clipping south coast at least in models throughout Tuesday and the trend is not southerly corrections then it is at least worth while checking radar returns initially as the low approaches to form a view if the radar is aligned with the +0 forecast 

[throwoff]

3 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Got to hope it tracks further north for us to benefit from it

With a few days to run moving 50 miles at a time over the runs will put it comfortably into the ballpark. 

I tried to not read the models too much over the weekend, a check between yesterday and today though shows it has moved up. We had nothing at all forecasted to drop on the Sunday runs, this morning the snow has crept back onto the south coast.

Edited January 15 by throwoff

[johnholmes]

Monday 15 Jan

From last Thursday

The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period.

Little to add, the possible snow event for this area looks to have ‘gone’. That for the far south seems less likely. The less cold air on all 3 charts I use looks set to arrive by Saturday. At the moment not looking all that mild but no sign of any cold for a couple of weeks from Saturday for the UK.

Have to say not sure what to make of the pattern in the very far west of the NOAA charts

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[Mcconnor8]

This doesn't look too fun, luckily still 6 days away on the GFS, good chance we continue our journey through the alphabet over the next couple of weeks.

[Rain All Night]

An overview of this morning's runs...

Deterministic runs (to day 7, Mon 22nd)

Ensemble means (at day 10, Thu 25th)

That's some cross-model agreement... perhaps the consolation prize for those of us in the far south for missing out on the snow this week might be that we end up under the protection of the Iberian high?

Ensemble means (at day 13, Sun 28th)

Selfishly, I'd take ECM...

Edited January 15 by RainAllNight

[Purga]

Nasty storm through the main part of the country & some snow for the hills up north if this comes off.

[BarometerCat]

GFS 0z and 6z  comparison at t156

   

ECM 0z 

That low pressure right over the UK appearing on the 6z GFS.  Followed by another low to the north a couple of days later.  ECM for roughly same period does not feature the same (to my untrained eye!),  Yet UKMO has low pressure but later time wise.

Seems after end of this week still some detail to be resolved. 

[Eskimo]

Yup agreement between the GFS, ECM and UKMO of a storm on Sunday > Monday. Track is very similar in each. Roll on Spring. 

ECM



GFS



UKMO

Edited January 15 by Eskimo

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Yup agreement between the GFS and ECM of a storm on Sunday > Monday. Track is very similar. Roll on Spring. 

ECM



GFS

Hope it's wrong, could end up with a scenario like that of January 2nd 1976 for my area , one of the worst wind storms to date for this area....

[throwoff]

Well despite all my confidence a few hours ago the 06Z GFS has shot down the tracking north. It has massively corrected it back down south. 

I think we can call this one another 'close but no cigar'

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Better.

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Well despite all my confidence a few hours ago the 06Z GFS has shot down the tracking north. It has massively corrected it back down south. 

I think we can call this one another 'close but no cigar'

 

Yep... 

My thoughts too..

It looks as if its going south.

Anyone calling the weekend storm further south as well yet?????

MIA

[throwoff]

3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep... 

My thoughts too..

It looks as if its going south.

Anyone calling the weekend storm further south as well yet?????

MIA

We have had plenty like it since 2018.

Of course this being model watching it will all change again at the 12Z and I will be popping the corks. 

[jules216]

I feel this winter hiatus is going to take ages. It wont be before at least second week of February before GWO hits phases that erode European high pressure in south/centre regions. Even Phase 6 GWO doesnt scrape too múch high pressure when its needed. This is well backed Up by Rossby Wave driven algoritms by P.Roundy and consonant chaos website. Looking at date now its 15.01 so its like 4 full weeks of hiatus with hardly any winter with then quite pointless unnecesary surge of cold when too Late in my view. The hearth of winter is basically snowless in central Europe thats looking like between 24.12 and 10.02 whith coolish start and "possibly" cold end of winter. Almonst a reversal of what one wants to see.

[Chrisover93]

20 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Well despite all my confidence a few hours ago the 06Z GFS has shot down the tracking north. It has massively corrected it back down south. 

I think we can call this one another 'close but no cigar'

 

Honestly it really hasn’t you can see how uncertain it is we must wait for a completely set of data before we pass judgement because some models are south and some are north 

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better.

Yeah, hopefully starting to see signs of the next chase.

Edited January 15 by Gowon
spelling

[snowray]

24 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Well despite all my confidence a few hours ago the 06Z GFS has shot down the tracking north. It has massively corrected it back down south. 

I think we can call this one another 'close but no cigar'

 

It's still not over and done with yet, the Arome has moved the PPN about 50/60 miles north on its 06z run. Up until now it had been way to the south, similar to UKMO.

 

 

Edited January 15 by snowray

[AO-]

162h ooofh .. These systems often deliver problems. Through the Canal over parts of Holland. Hopefully the wind speed decreases over the coming days. Not to mention the 192 over Schotland. 

Edited January 15 by AO-

[Midlands Ice Age]

Seriously though things are still interesting.

Since Tamara   and   the other experts called this week broadly correct, (with the slight exception of the cold air further south for enough time to cool it down enough for a long term cold period for most of us), I am looking into the forecasts with a view for their predicted forecast of cold to return quite soon. Still a possibility.

Currently looks a bust, baswd upon the last 2 or 3 days..

However experience teaches me that many a cold spell has developed on the back of a rapidly deepening low moving across the southern half of the UK. This now seems pretty  certain for the weekend.

With cold air still over Scotland and the north, this air will  get dragged southwards again early next week. as higher pressure will start to develop on its western side in response.

This could take us back to a much colder outlook again.

If it does it would fit the pattern exactly described by our experts that they expect to happen, as the higher pressure would push and would slow the Atlantic down again, hence  giving it a chance to  move to our north again in their classic 'eddy' descriptions of atmospheric events...

Let us see what happens.

MIA. 

 

 

Edited January 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[ICE COLD]

well there’s the signs of blocking in the latest GFS 6z run . Just all in the wrong places on this run . 

[nick sussex]

The Atlantic low drama needs to just make its mind up .

The models keep throwing out the odd scrap to southern coldies and it’s just painful .

After the ICON 06 hrs run I thought that was a good sign only for the GFS to shoot that down in flames .

 

[Eagle Eye]

Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it? 

[AO-]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

well there’s the signs of blocking in the latest GFS 6z run . Just all in the wrong places on this run . 

The biggest problem is the lack of cold later on when interesting synoptics reappear. I really hope the GFS is overplaying the zonal setup, because otherwise we have to start from scratch with the beginning of the last wintermonth.