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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

EC46 still looking rather mediocre into February.  Some potential later on but any cold does not look sustained to me with heights not retrogressing far enough north

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Edited by Don
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

ECM ensembles are very much the same as GFS. Mild as far as the eye can see. Possibly even bringing in the 22nd as an exceptionally mild day as well as the 23rd, and then staying milder than average right to the end. 

chart(71).thumb.png.aece449c18db8edb1ccd1cf11aa06a09.pngchart(72).thumb.png.8ccab909d0906a6aea8c2ed6771bb2fe.png

The meteogram for Reading is also simple and straightforward. Overwhelming likelihood of westerlies and south-westerlies for the foreseeable, above average temperatures by day and night. Yes there's a drop off once you get past the 23rd, but only from exceptionally mild to significantly milder than average.  

image.thumb.png.e95cf1c430f1061fc59fa1125a93aef0.png

I'm all for optimism, and we will no doubt have further chances in February, but I'm not going to attempt to sugar coat this one!

 

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
11 minutes ago, Augusta Snow said:

Hi Don, it wasn’t that long ago the 46 was looking fantastic for this current cold spell and beyond. I for one won’t be worried by these charts. 

I believe it did yes!  Always to be taken with a pinch of salt.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't take any op seriously after 7 days tops, whether it be ecm, gfs etc. There's a reason why ukmo ops stop at 168hrs. Anything after is not really worth taking seriously. With this in mind, the ecm op run this evening is definitely an upgrade compared to yesterday's. Compare this evening's 168hr chart to yesterday's 192hr chart. Poles apart if you excuse the pun. After 168hrs, the ecm flattens again but let's see if this improvement grows as we get to the 5/6 day timeframe. Things could develop rapidly here - and in a very good way for those of a cold persuasion. 

ECH1-168 (3).gif

ECH1-192 (4).gif

The GFS ops were fairly decent over the predicted breakdown of our current spell far out imo.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:

For me, as much as I love cold and snow, the real watching brief is for this bloody storm on Sunday... That could lead to a red warning if it is any way close to how it's being modelled. Lot's of rain too, something I think we can all agree is not needed...

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GFS 18z looks very rough during the day and overnight into Monday.

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And Tuesday night doesn't get any better.

 

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, joggs said:

The GFS ops were fairly decent over the predicted breakdown of our current spell far out imo.

The ops, whether they be gfs or ecm tend to do much better at handling mild breakdowns. I suspect most know this. They find it much more difficult when there is a possibility of meridional/amplified patterns emerging. Gfs often spots these way out but only spasmodically. Ecm initially doesn't want to know, gfs roller-coaster ensues, ecm sort of jumps on etc etc. The amplified patterns are still obviously very difficult for the models to get a grasp of, hence my own advice of sticking to 7 days tops in situations like this. 

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Well, just had a run through the GEFS at 300 hours. I think the kindest thing to say is that by the time we all wake up this set will be gone 🤣

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted
30 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The GEM shows how quickly things can change:

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Did not expect to see that this morning! More of that please.  Would really love to see a flip to something more cold favourable in the models around this time. I don’t expect that to happen but at the same time I do have a feeling something is afoot. It would be great if we didn’t have to wait long. Maybe we’ll see a reverse of the normal and see the models finally pick out a rapid shift in the atmosphere. The cold is running out across America so perhaps the Jet will lose its steam soon. All I know is I’m sick of typing the word “telecommunications”. 🤣 Bring on the flip!!!

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Did not expect to see that this morning! More of that please.  Would really love to see a flip to something more cold favourable in the models around this time. I don’t expect that to happen but at the same time I do have a feeling something is afoot. It would be great if we didn’t have to wait long. Maybe we’ll see a reverse of the normal and see the models finally pick out a rapid shift in the atmosphere. The cold is running out across America so perhaps the Jet will lose its steam soon. All I know is I’m sick of typing the word “telecommunications”. 🤣 Bring on the flip!!!

Gem is interesting. What it does between 26th and 28th I’m not sure ive seen happen before in reality. Others may well be able to recall a time when it did.

other than another move away from a flat pattern there’s still much inconsistency. Fascinating.

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Edited by That ECM
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Pensby, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter. Anything extreme.
  • Location: Pensby, Wirral
Posted

Morning gang, had another dusting overnight which was never forecast, just sprung up over my area out of nowhere. Just goes to show you get the cold embedded the surprises will follow! Also I think someone on here got their wish for a Pembrokshire dangler 😂

Anyway Gem this morning keeping the interest alive, let's hope its not long before everywhere can get a good white coating!

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  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted

We are about to go from bitter arctic to very mild south-westerlies. In fact, an unusually warm week ahead. We may see some double-digit nights and daytime maxima as high as 15C+. In the words of last night’s BBC Meteo Group forecast: “incredibly mild."

The Iberian high is evident on the UKMO output, which has been a persistent presence. Quite difficult to ‘scroll past’ this and with SSTs around the Azores 2C-3C above mean, we are in the firing line for warm winds:

Screenshot2024-01-18at06_36_11.thumb.png.1b1d0482f0754c45524eba12b6a1741e.png

 

 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Maybe the reasoning behind the METO extended expected frequency of colder interludes through February

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

The latest forecast says a major disruption of the polar vortex is on its way, but the stratosphere has been acting up for a while. Our...

 

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

The problem with height rises to the east is if they dont migrate far enough north, with a section of deep vortex stationed over Greenland we often get stuck in no mans land with mild southerlies as per ECM.

On a more seasonal note, woke to a decent snow shower here in W Wales which has left a dusting.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-18.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted

0z ECM continues the 0z UKMO theme of very mild south-westerlies, with the Iberian / Euro high back in situ:

Screenshot2024-01-18at06_59_02.thumb.png.3c85bfe4bf558f8d0b67c85142acaa57.pngScreenshot2024-01-18at06_59_09.thumb.png.1d114b4ce2bcdad981e432acb1c82a8c.png

 

A mild final third to January. The real meteorological story for the UK will be strong winds and flooding, as well as some unseasonably mild temperatures.

Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted
12 minutes ago, TillyS said:

0z ECM continues the 0z UKMO theme of very mild south-westerlies, with the Iberian / Euro high back in situ:

Screenshot2024-01-18at06_59_02.thumb.png.3c85bfe4bf558f8d0b67c85142acaa57.pngScreenshot2024-01-18at06_59_09.thumb.png.1d114b4ce2bcdad981e432acb1c82a8c.png

 

A mild final third to January. The real meteorological story for the UK will be strong winds and flooding, as well as some unseasonably mild temperatures.

At ten days out that's FI The pattern can change over two to three days even by next Wednesday the temps are around the 9c-10c mark not exactly mild considering the wind is from a WSW direction.    

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
57 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Did not expect to see that this morning! More of that please.  Would really love to see a flip to something more cold favourable in the models around this time. I don’t expect that to happen but at the same time I do have a feeling something is afoot. It would be great if we didn’t have to wait long. Maybe we’ll see a reverse of the normal and see the models finally pick out a rapid shift in the atmosphere. The cold is running out across America so perhaps the Jet will lose its steam soon. All I know is I’m sick of typing the word “telecommunications”. 🤣 Bring on the flip!!!

Same, but I wasn't surprised- both the GFS and the ECM has played with the idea of a quick route to cold - the ECM had that wedge of heights first which would have led to the same evolution as the GEM. 

7 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The problem with height rises to the east is if they dont migrate far enough north, with a section of deep vortex stationed over Greenland we often get stuck in no mans land with mild southerlies as per ECM.

On a more seasonal note, woke to a decent snow shower here in W Wales which has left a dusting.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-18.png

That looks full of potential to me.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
20 minutes ago, TillyS said:

0z ECM continues the 0z UKMO theme of very mild south-westerlies, with the Iberian / Euro high back in situ:

Screenshot2024-01-18at06_59_02.thumb.png.3c85bfe4bf558f8d0b67c85142acaa57.pngScreenshot2024-01-18at06_59_09.thumb.png.1d114b4ce2bcdad981e432acb1c82a8c.png

 

A mild final third to January. The real meteorological story for the UK will be strong winds and flooding, as well as some unseasonably mild temperatures.

Hopefully auntie vortex and uncle barty won't overstay their welcome.👍

  • Like 4
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