Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Community Team]

A fresh thread, and hopefully a fresh start after things went a bit off on a tangent in the previous thread. 

No big sermon here, but we really do need to make every effort to stay within the forum and model thread guidelines (below) in here. And within that, please, please, please don't respond to comments which are clearly outside of those guidelines. Please just report them and move on so as not to give any iffy, inflammatory comments the oxygen that they do not deserve. 

The community guidelines, have recently been updated - so please have a read of them if you haven't yet. We also have a separate set of guidelines specifically for the model output threads to hopefully clarify what constitutes model discussion, along with other info about these discussions. 

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A typical, on-topic post into the model thread is likely to contain the following:

• Discussing, interpreting and commenting on data from weather models.
• Comparing predictions from different weather models.
• Making specific weather predictions based on model outputs.
• Delving into technical aspects of weather modelling.
• Analysing specific weather patterns shown in model forecasts.
• Speculating on future weather trends based on model data.
• Providing educational insights or explanations about how weather models work and how to read them.

Posts which may not fit into the model thread and, therefore need to be posted elsewhere may do one of the following:

• Making purely emotional reactions to the model output with no context (Eg - The GFS is crap, The ECM is amazing and so on)
• Talking about TV, web or app-based forecasts and warnings with no current model-related context.
• Talking about past weather experiences with no current model related context.
• Over the top and unrealistic hyping up of model output.
• Solely moaning about the model output or weather conditions.
• Complaining about what other members have posted into the model thread.
• Complaining about moderation within the model thread.

Model threads health warning

The model discussions are open to all and are filled with discussions on the model output from weather enthusiasts. Some will have more knowledge than others, some may get overly excited about the prospect of particular weather types which can lead to exaggerated interpretations and predictions. Some may even post things which aren’t an accurate representation of the models they’re describing. This is the nature of a discussion forum, with differing levels of expertise, along with varying opinions, insights and emotive responses.

The discussions also often look at future trends in various weather forecasting models, which, by their nature, can change dramatically from run to run. When someone posts their view, it is very likely to be a discussion around recent data from the models and is subject to change - eg they aren’t necessarily making a forecast.

If you’re looking for a more concise version of the model discussion, the model highlights thread is available. If you’re looking for a specific weather forecast and not looking to read a discussion, there are many sources of those across the web, including right here on Netweather.

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The model highlights thread is running and is entirely crowdsourced, so if you see a post you think is insightful and informative, that should be in there, please use the 'insightful' reaction on it:

For access to the various model outputs, many of them are right here on netweather:

UKV
Met Office Global
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS Maps
ECMWF EPS Graphs
MOGREPS
GFS 0.25 degree
GEFS Ensembles
Netwx-MR
Netwx-SR
Multi-Model Ensembles (£)
New Global Multi-Model Viewer (£)

Edited April 8 by BlueHedgehog074

[Gowon]

The UKMO has a wedge of heights in the mid atlantic like the GFS, but it doesn't amount to anything..  i'm hoping it can have a bit more influence in future runs:

 

[Ladyofthestorm]

Take heed. The NAO ensembles suggest a  tumble towards neutral then negative into early Feb. The Atlantic storm belt should grind to a halt. 

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time

[Purga]

 From Bartlett to Bartlett with Barlett in between according to the last couple of Op runs.

Let's hope there's some relief from the GEFS.

Edited January 22 by Purga

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time

That last frame is better than this mornings. There's more amplification around Greenland so the heights would have a better chance of building ne?

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time

As ever with the GFS its outer range output is prone to huge differences run to run and also matching same run 24 hrs on. Some recent GFS runs have gone with a northerly latter timeframes. 

I may as well copy and paste the following statement for the rest of the week on commenting on the models ' looking at the foreseeable, often mild or very mild, westerlies in ascendance sometimes wet or very wet and windy more so in the north, heights to the south holding firm'.. 

[ANYWEATHER]

25 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time

Don't worry, although winter weather has gone to hibernation mode for the uk at the moment , by March and April ,it will be waking up ,and when we are ready for Spring , Winter will be back ,when we don't want it !

[Uncertainty]

GEFS finding an AR, much like last night’s eps.

 

GEPS offering moderate support

 

The trop vortex over scandi reflects the SPV’s forecast position.

 

Thus Atlantic height rises viable in the extended. Extent unknown. 
 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS looking like they will contain some N'lys in FI. PV draining from Greenland more than 6z.

[Jason T]

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As ever with the GFS its outer range output is prone to huge differences run to run and also matching same run 24 hrs on. Some recent GFS runs have gone with a northerly latter timeframes. 

I may as well copy and paste the following statement for the rest of the week on commenting on the models ' looking at the foreseeable, often mild or very mild, westerlies in ascendance sometimes wet or very wet and windy more so in the north, heights to the south holding firm'.. 

Indeed and with a fully charged up jet stream right over us just Drives the Atlantic LP systems into us.

Edited January 22 by Jason T

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Don't worry, although winter weather has gone to hibernation mode for the uk at the moment , by March and April ,it will be waking up ,and when we are ready for Spring , Winter will be back ,when we don't want it !

Rrr but many a cold chaser on here will most definitely take it in March,as March can be quite potent,April not so much...but if most of Feb turned out mild and the very end of Feb into March went baltic...many myself included would be seriously happy.

Some ens show where we could still end up..and I for one are in full winter mode for at least 6 more weeks.

Edited January 22 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Eagle Eye]

Not entirely out of question that the +VE heights driving the zonal pattern in the mid-term w/the GLAAM rebound underway the NPJ equatorward shift is extremely likely but also extended and appears strong favouring that Pacific trough, it could be more zonal US response in terms of the jet. With the north-eastward moving US high, cold could well undercut into eastern parts of the USA and get more entrenched than you would first think because if that does happen it is natural to pivot the pattern to flip it and hence the two jets seperate between the NPJ phase and the north Atlantic. However, getting rid of the Euro high entrenched over well Europe might be a bit harder even with the rising Greenland heights as it's just easier to return to zonal without any Scandi movement whatsoever and the CAD won't last forever in the eastern US and so the Greenland pattern would return to - VE heights fairly easily. 

Its a precarious pattern that needs everything to go right for us and we know our luck quite often. We'd need a Scandi high to come out of nowhere which is unlikely, the NAO pattern is essentially useless in this scenario. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The options remain on the table folks..yes the op was poor but there is now a fair amount of colder members in the pack.

[Gowon]

Vortex looks beat up on the Asian models:

[northwestsnow]

EC is so bad it's funny

Temps in the low teens to usher in Feb ?

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is so bad it's funny

Temps in the low teens to usher in Feb ?

On the plus side, vortex is less organised.  

[WYorksWeather]

Before addressing the longer range which I will do later, worth looking at tomorrow. I've only been banging on about it for about the last 10 days now and I'm sure you're sick of hearing about it, but this will be my last look at tomorrow's potential for a daily record. Remember, the target to beat is 15.2C.

Here's the raw maxima from UKV:

GFS:

Arpege:

Arome:

ICON:

Nearly all models with the exception of the Arpege are showing raw maxima of 14C, and based on typical under-reading, I would therefore say that the prospect of a daily record break tomorrow is still uncertain even at this late stage. I'll stick my neck out and say that it will happen, but probably only by a very small margin.

[WYorksWeather]

To get on another one of my hobby horses, here's another look at the SST anomalies.

Today:

At day 15:

Near normal around our coasts, but very mild (and becoming more so by day 15!) to our south-west near the Azores. Generally around 2C above normal.

No prizes for guessing what the likely wind direction for the next 10-14 days is. And hence no prizes for guessing that you can take whatever a normally mild pattern looks like, and add another couple of degrees to it.

[E17boy]

Hi all,

Just saw this thought I share it don’t know how true this maybe but was interesting 

 

[BigBlizzard]

Have we ever seen such an extensive area of warmth to the south modelled at this time of year? Incredible to see this over the 20 odd years of chart watching! It'll be sods law the warmth will have vanished as we approach late spring when most of us want it but it's hard to imagine an area this size being replaced with cold air. Not a winter's over or CC change post, generally interested in whether the level of warmth and extent of warmth modelled has been seen before?

 

 

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Take heed. The NAO ensembles suggest a tumble towards neutral then negative into early Feb. The Atlantic storm belt should grind to a halt.

 

The NAO is a reflection / calculation of the atmospheric pressure pattern in the North Atlantic rather than something that drives the models. So that can change from run to run. Easier to look at than a model instead though, i'll agree on that but doesn't show much of the broad picture. A negative NAO will still be stormy in parts of the Atlantic, it is just shifted south, polar jetstream can't grind to a halt or completely stop.

Alternatively a west based -NAO allows deep lows to undercut a Greenland block sending all that to north west Europe, i.e late December 2021.

As @Eagle Eye alluded to shortly, checking the NAO indices is pretty much of no use with heights across Iberia to east Europe modelled in the next 2 weeks at least. Even with low pressure over the Azores which might get the NAO going down a little early next week, that still sends very mild air into the UK. Looking at the extended GEFS, I can't exactly see much of a reduction in the positive NAO either. A chance of a UK high forming some point or a mid Atlantic ridge though, but too far out to say with much certainty.

Edited January 22 by Metwatch

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, BigBlizzard said:

Have we ever seen such an extensive area of warmth to the south modelled at this time of year? Incredible to see this over the 20 odd years of chart watching! It'll be sods law the warmth will have vanished as we approach late spring when most of us want it but it's hard to imagine an area this size being replaced with cold air. Not a winter's over or CC change post, generally interested in whether the level of warmth and extent of warmth modelled has been seen before?

 

 

Whether we get cold later in February is unclear but the above chart is the firm favourite to start Feb. It will lead to an early Spring with grass growing, daffodils sprouting etc..not what most of us want but for those working and indeed sleeping homeless it will be very welcome...

Personally I prefer this to bitter cold without snow falling. Lots of fun seeing snow, not so much just bitterly cold

[Don]

42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is so bad it's funny

I have to say I have seen funnier things.  Feels like we may as well chase cold in July and August as there would be nearly as much chance of it coming off as now, if you get my drift?! 

Edited January 22 by Don

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi all,

Just saw this thought I share it don’t know how true this maybe but was interesting 

 

Not saying much that hasn’t been mentioned in here - obvs we’ve moved on from the scandi ridge idea now but sceuro trough and rising Atlantic heights is supposed to be the direction of travel …….eventually !

certainly using day 10 charts at 70npa is not that advised.  Whilst the strat should be more reliable than the trop re nwp, this year with the trop leading the dance that isn’t quite as assured as usual  and certainly not low down at 70hpa