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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards


Message added by Paul,

Please read the model discussion guidelines  before posting into this thread.

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A fresh thread, and hopefully a fresh start after things went a bit off on a tangent in the previous thread. 

No big sermon here, but we really do need to make every effort to stay within the forum and model thread guidelines (below) in here. And within that, please, please, please don't respond to comments which are clearly outside of those guidelines. Please just report them and move on so as not to give any iffy, inflammatory comments the oxygen that they do not deserve. 

The community guidelines, have recently been updated - so please have a read of them if you haven't yet. We also have a separate set of guidelines specifically for the model output threads to hopefully clarify what constitutes model discussion, along with other info about these discussions. 

-------------------------------------

A typical, on-topic post into the model thread is likely to contain the following:

  • Discussing, interpreting and commenting on data from weather models.
  • Comparing predictions from different weather models.
  • Making specific weather predictions based on model outputs.
  • Delving into technical aspects of weather modelling.
  • Analysing specific weather patterns shown in model forecasts.
  • Speculating on future weather trends based on model data.
  • Providing educational insights or explanations about how weather models work and how to read them.

Posts which may not fit into the model thread and, therefore need to be posted elsewhere may do one of the following:

  • Making purely emotional reactions to the model output with no context (Eg - The GFS is crap, The ECM is amazing and so on)
  • Talking about TV, web or app-based forecasts and warnings with no current model-related context.
  • Talking about past weather experiences with no current model related context.
  • Over the top and unrealistic hyping up of model output.
  • Solely moaning about the model output or weather conditions.
  • Complaining about what other members have posted into the model thread.
  • Complaining about moderation within the model thread.

Model threads health warning

The model discussions are open to all and are filled with discussions on the model output from weather enthusiasts. Some will have more knowledge than others, some may get overly excited about the prospect of particular weather types which can lead to exaggerated interpretations and predictions. Some may even post things which aren’t an accurate representation of the models they’re describing. This is the nature of a discussion forum, with differing levels of expertise, along with varying opinions, insights and emotive responses.

The discussions also often look at future trends in various weather forecasting models, which, by their nature, can change dramatically from run to run. When someone posts their view, it is very likely to be a discussion around recent data from the models and is subject to change - eg they aren’t necessarily making a forecast.

If you’re looking for a more concise version of the model discussion, the model highlights thread is available. If you’re looking for a specific weather forecast and not looking to read a discussion, there are many sources of those across the web, including right here on Netweather.

--------------------------------------

The model highlights thread is running and is entirely crowdsourced, so if you see a post you think is insightful and informative, that should be in there, please use the 'insightful' reaction on it:

Could contain: Light, Lightbulb, Disk

For access to the various model outputs, many of them are right here on netweather:

UKV
Met Office Global
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS Maps
ECMWF EPS Graphs
MOGREPS
GFS 0.25 degree
GEFS Ensembles
Netwx-MR
Netwx-SR
Multi-Model Ensembles (£)
New Global Multi-Model Viewer (£)

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The UKMO has a wedge of heights in the mid atlantic like the GFS, but it doesn't amount to anything..  i'm hoping it can have a bit more influence in future runs:🤔

image.thumb.png.4578ef4b944bd2460341917a9f511bbe.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time 😕

GFSOPEU12_384_1-1.png

GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

 From Bartlett to Bartlett with Barlett in between according to the last couple of Op runs. 🤢🤮

Let's hope there's some relief from the GEFS.

GFSOPEU12_6_1.thumb.png.d7f607e358137b9a14752178dc48a3ca.png GFSOPEU12_210_1.thumb.png.9aa93a29a820cf36270accc0a456bc38.png GFSOPEU12_384_1.thumb.png.fefbdb24b9178c0252ff6873d1ddf1eb.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
5 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time 😕

GFSOPEU12_384_1-1.png

GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png

That last frame is better than this mornings. There's more amplification around Greenland so the heights would have a better chance of building ne?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
7 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time 😕

GFSOPEU12_384_1-1.png

GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png

As ever with the GFS its outer range output is prone to huge differences run to run and also matching same run 24 hrs on. Some recent GFS runs have gone with a northerly latter timeframes. 

I may as well copy and paste the following statement for the rest of the week on commenting on the models ' looking at the foreseeable, often mild or very mild, westerlies in ascendance sometimes wet or very wet and windy more so in the north, heights to the south holding firm'.. 

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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

GEFS finding an AR, much like last night’s eps.

image.thumb.png.492533d33d6243287d58fc1b55b7771b.png
 

GEPS offering moderate support

image.thumb.png.3b86407a5ae1a02a70c922889b3ee4c0.png
 

The trop vortex over scandi reflects the SPV’s forecast position.

image.thumb.png.0822b04c736821d5d5a510b45acc83f0.png
 

Thus Atlantic height rises viable in the extended. Extent unknown. 
 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS looking like they will contain some N'lys in FI. PV draining from Greenland more than 6z.

image.thumb.png.f475e36bdbbe421f0c5d4dc4abc10db9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As ever with the GFS its outer range output is prone to huge differences run to run and also matching same run 24 hrs on. Some recent GFS runs have gone with a northerly latter timeframes. 

I may as well copy and paste the following statement for the rest of the week on commenting on the models ' looking at the foreseeable, often mild or very mild, westerlies in ascendance sometimes wet or very wet and windy more so in the north, heights to the south holding firm'.. 

Indeed and with a fully charged up jet stream right over us just Drives the Atlantic LP systems into us.

Screenshot_20240122-180612_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Jason T
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The options remain on the table folks..yes the op was poor but there is now a fair amount of colder members in the pack.

gfs-birmingham-gb-525n-2.png

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e.png

gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Vortex looks beat up on the Asian models:👀

image.thumb.png.2cd546032c0663080236c45c100b421e.pngimage.thumb.png.6091ce267241fbb16f28ab9696d95310.png

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is so bad it's funny

image.thumb.png.8564c377da76a8576e419ce1b2a8a899.png

image.thumb.png.f0f717745ab971d0a3f26c8eafa94d8b.png

Temps in the low teens to usher in Feb ?

On the plus side, vortex is less organised.  

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

Before addressing the longer range which I will do later, worth looking at tomorrow. I've only been banging on about it for about the last 10 days now and I'm sure you're sick of hearing about it, but this will be my last look at tomorrow's potential for a daily record. Remember, the target to beat is 15.2C.

Here's the raw maxima from UKV:

image.thumb.png.389ffeaba1287f2f67ef9bda28f8aef5.png

GFS:

image.thumb.png.68e8fc8812ea29cf3bf0396d3e79bf41.png

Arpege:

image.thumb.png.42ef43dba78624b1a8241188084bfd07.png

Arome:

image.thumb.png.2083169af73c1b7c6a7afaddad9fb2bb.png

ICON:

image.thumb.png.aa7ea787562dcaebc769f7035cfd196e.png

Nearly all models with the exception of the Arpege are showing raw maxima of 14C, and based on typical under-reading, I would therefore say that the prospect of a daily record break tomorrow is still uncertain even at this late stage. I'll stick my neck out and say that it will happen, but probably only by a very small margin.

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

To get on another one of my hobby horses, here's another look at the SST anomalies.

Today:

image.thumb.png.1699dbd876ef2f7fca65a7c6eac57521.png

At day 15:

image.thumb.png.660fde441878b6fefc37ebdb173933d7.png

Near normal around our coasts, but very mild (and becoming more so by day 15!) to our south-west near the Azores. Generally around 2C above normal.

No prizes for guessing what the likely wind direction for the next 10-14 days is. And hence no prizes for guessing that you can take whatever a normally mild pattern looks like, and add another couple of degrees to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Westhill, Aberdeenshire, 150m
  • Location: Westhill, Aberdeenshire, 150m

Have we ever seen such an extensive area of warmth to the south modelled at this time of year? Incredible to see this over the 20 odd years of chart watching! It'll be sods law the warmth will have vanished as we approach late spring when most of us want it but it's hard to imagine an area this size being replaced with cold air. Not a winter's over or CC change post, generally interested in whether the level of warmth and extent of warmth modelled has been seen before?

 

 

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
2 hours ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Take heed. The NAO ensembles suggest a tumble towards neutral then negative into early Feb. The Atlantic storm belt should grind to a halt.

 Screenshot_2024-01-22-17-24-00-42_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.thumb.jpg.98d3c9008413d54aecd938a83c73ac29.jpg

The NAO is a reflection / calculation of the atmospheric pressure pattern in the North Atlantic rather than something that drives the models. So that can change from run to run. Easier to look at than a model instead though, i'll agree on that but doesn't show much of the broad picture. A negative NAO will still be stormy in parts of the Atlantic, it is just shifted south, polar jetstream can't grind to a halt or completely stop.

Alternatively a west based -NAO allows deep lows to undercut a Greenland block sending all that to north west Europe, i.e late December 2021.

CFSR_1_2021122512_1.thumb.png.3215294bcc97f7f642959d04221cb3b3.png

As @Eagle Eye alluded to shortly, checking the NAO indices is pretty much of no use with heights across Iberia to east Europe modelled in the next 2 weeks at least. Even with low pressure over the Azores which might get the NAO going down a little early next week, that still sends very mild air into the UK. Looking at the extended GEFS, I can't exactly see much of a reduction in the positive NAO either. A chance of a UK high forming some point or a mid Atlantic ridge though, but too far out to say with much certainty.

gph500_anom_20240122_12_162.thumb.jpg.78cc39c0508ea1f9bed8e422f54d8676.jpg

Edited by Metwatch
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
5 minutes ago, BigBlizzard said:

Have we ever seen such an extensive area of warmth to the south modelled at this time of year? Incredible to see this over the 20 odd years of chart watching! It'll be sods law the warmth will have vanished as we approach late spring when most of us want it but it's hard to imagine an area this size being replaced with cold air. Not a winter's over or CC change post, generally interested in whether the level of warmth and extent of warmth modelled has been seen before?

 

 

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

Whether we get cold later in February is unclear but the above chart is the firm favourite to start Feb. It will lead to an early Spring with grass growing, daffodils sprouting etc..not what most of us want but for those working and indeed sleeping homeless it will be very welcome...

Personally I prefer this to bitter cold without snow falling. Lots of fun seeing snow, not so much just bitterly cold

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is so bad it's funny

I have to say I have seen funnier things.  Feels like we may as well chase cold in July and August as there would be nearly as much chance of it coming off as now, if you get my drift?! 😔

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
19 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi all,

Just saw this thought I share it don’t know how true this maybe but was interesting 

 

Not saying much that hasn’t been mentioned in here - obvs we’ve moved on from the scandi ridge idea now but sceuro trough and rising Atlantic heights is supposed to be the direction of travel …….eventually !

certainly using day 10 charts at 70npa is not that advised.  Whilst the strat should be more reliable than the trop re nwp, this year with the trop leading the dance that isn’t quite as assured as usual  and certainly not low down at 70hpa 

 

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