Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[danm]

The unsettled spell looks fairly short lived on the GFS 6z, let's hope so. 

[Sherry]

Gfs still manages to give us average temps in London area next week 17/18 so not a complete disaster 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 danm does the jet stream then skirt northwards after dipping further south for a bit? Alhough in this case really it's a case of the jet stream positioned right over us.   

Trust it may have support as well and be backed by the other ensemble members and the mean.   

It'll be interesting to find out as well if there is a mountain torque event that is a barrier for us to get the more settled conditions.    

[MP-R]

 WYorksWeather Not uncommon to have mid twenties at all. Such happened in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 give or take a week…

[Alderc 2.0]

 WYorksWeather  Sunday is starting to be nibbled away at, look at the south west. What’s the comparison with Sundays chart from yesterday like? 

[LetItSnow!]

Not quite sure it's fair to say claims of it turning unsettled are hyperbolic. Compared to last night the GFS (left) and ECM (right) are still showing a trough in our vicinity by mid-month.. The 0z of both look quite similar by Wednesday the 15th with a trough generally over/to our SW. Cloud amounts, weather fronts and such is useless guessing at over a week ahead, but I will remind some that troughs don't always produce the worst weather. Slack troughs in the warmer months can often produce quite a lot of convection and unless you have cool uppers then days will probably be warm, especially if the sun makes an appearance. This chart looks poor on the surface but it doesn't neccesarily mean everywhere will be stuck with cloud. A bit like the trough a few days when quite a few places saw sunny spells. Generally though it seems as though the unsettled, potentially thundery outlook remains at the moment with a risk of rain bands and thunderstorms peppering the country I reckon. Definitely no sign of protracted cooler than average conditions if that's what some are concerned about. The current spring temperature record is looking flimsy!

By day 9, a long way out, but the GFS 0z keep to bring high pressure back to the northern-half so perhaps a split. The ECM setting up something that could lead to a continuation of poor weather.

The ensembles of both show that the overall pattern is likely a trough of some kind by Friday the 17th. Usual caveats apply.

What with the storms this May so far and an unstable period potentially coming mid-month, wouldn't surprise me if May 2024 could go down as quite a thundery month.

Shades of May 1999 perhaps, often warm without exceptionally high temperatures and with quite a lot of thunder.

[Andy Bown]

 LetItSnow!  now that (1999) had an epic thundery 5/6 days! Elevated, surface based, MCS’s the lot! 

[Sherry]

Already had the best storm in years in south Essex was insane 

[WYorksWeather]

 MP-R 27C is quite unusual in the first half of May. It's only 3C below the highest temperature recorded at that point in the year! Not talking about May as a whole here.

In any case, this morning's UKV downgraded to 26C - we'll see what the evening run brings.

 Alderc 2.0 Generally about 1C or so lower across most areas with a greater drop further south and west. We'll have this evening's run to compare to as well. Still some variation about Sunday - options available that keep warmth into Monday or Tuesday and others clear it earlier. We will have to wait for a few more runs to be sure.

[northwestsnow]

As expected Exeter doubling down on things deteriating next week and looking at the long ranger no prospect of it settling down until early June and the SE in particular.

Of course things can and might change ,however ,as @Alderc 2.0pointed out previously ,a UK trough with blocking to the North can be a very stubborn and extremely frustrating set up to break out of.

I'll enjoy the next few days sunshine first though it's been a welcome dry slot in a shocking spring.

 

Edited May 8 by northwestsnow

[Howie]

 northwestsnow

This is so frustrating

[danm]

Anything beyond the middle of next week is very uncertain at the moment. Lots of different options being thrown out. But yes, Monday to Wednesday at least looks very unsettled again. 

[northwestsnow]

 danm agreed.

Exeter Clearly expecting troughing to stick around for a good while but as you say,that might change..

[danm]

 northwestsnow I think the uncertainty is what happens to the trough. It will still be in the vicinity of the UK beyond Wednesday, but some suggestions it could pull to the SW and fill. If it does, we could get some reasonable, warm weather with a mixture of sunshine and some showers. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to the CFS weeklies the trough will go away by weeks 3 and 4, think Exeter are being pessimistic to be fair.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 danm I'd suggest we watch GWV at this stage, actually Gavin P has been on scintillating form with his forecasts lately and his views should not be dismissed at all.   That can therefore shed some help for us guys on here.    

[Alderc 2.0]

GFS 12Z at least prevented the complete washout of the 00Z but the entire working week next week looks awful and I ain’t that keen on the stiff easterly it pulls in after that and the the ever colder northerly. Normally you’d accept some poor weather in May but after and poor start to the month and months and months of wet weather patience is wearing thin and anything less than solidly good conditions is not acceptable.

Edited May 8 by Alderc 2.0

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just seen the ECM hovmollers from yesterday and they indicate to me that the ridge situation will return.   

[ANYWEATHER]

I'm going to make the most of this beautiful week, next week looks back to square one... Pulling out the shorts and t,shirts tomorrow, won't belong before their back in the wardrobe

[Howie]

 ANYWEATHER

Back to winter coats, what a disgrace

[danm]

No doubt that the GFS shows a ghastly washout early next week. However signs that the low fills and moves south by Thursday with pressure possibly building back in. 
 

Two things: 1. Let’s hope that through isn’t as deep as the GFS is showing. 2. Let’s hope it scoots off as the GFS shows for later next week. 

[Alderc 2.0]

 danm not just GFS, GEM follows suit and has some dreadful conditions in the south at times next week. 

[danm]

 Alderc 2.0 let’s hope it gets watered down. If I look back to the ECM and GFS charts this time last week for today, they were quite different and certainly not as good as what we currently have. 
 

There’s no doubt early next week is going to turn wet, hopefully that low won’t be as deep or as centred slap back over the UK as currently modelled. Have to just see how things play out over the days ahead. Until then, four more fine, warm and sunny days to enjoy. 

Edited May 8 by danm

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Best idea so we don't get carried away is to look at the anomoly charts, which I feel inclined to do later on.   

[LetItSnow!]

Very intense low for the time of year on the UKMO and GFS 12z by Tuesday the 14th.

GFS does manage a return to high pressure by day 10 with just a risk of cloudier weather in the south and east perhaps on those easterly winds. Could be turning out to be a very varied May with extremes of pressure.

Not too dissimilar from exactly 20 years ago

I'm not surprised at the idea of a very deep low for the 14th as we have a trough developing in the Atlantic running into warm air, ripe conditions for rapid intensification.

The question is how high pressure will interact with low pressure. Will it be forced south by a ridge of high pressure and return us to dry and warm weather or will it become entrenched over the UK and set up more of a (relatively) cool and further wet pattern? My thoughts are relatively unchanged from earlier. I think different models are sniffing for clues as to what will happen. Ensembles seem to want to keep low pressure around but the GFS has seen the low squeezing south/ridge building in pattern for a couple of runs so it's a definite option. Perhaps the consensus will swing that way or perhaps we'll have a meet-in-the-middle affair. My thoughts on this potentially being a thundery May remain.

Enjoy the high pressure and sunshine in the next few days, peeps.