[center][b]SEPTEMBER DICUSSION[/b][/center]
1st September: A bit drizzly earlier, then it turned quite nice and sunny for a spell but cloud cover again increased and much of the evening was wet and dull. Tomorrow should be a better day, beyond this there could be some rain at times, cloudy and the model outlook is for quite a warm looking first half of September.
2nd September: Quite grey and dull in the morning before things did brighten up for afterwards. Some clear skies and nice evenin
[b][u][u]AWT'S Autumn 2012 Forecast[/u][/u][/b]
[b][u][u]SEPTEMBER [/u][/u][/b]... quite warm and changeable with good periods of both dry and wet and windy autumnal weather. Temperatures 0.0 to 1.0 above normal. CET 14.0C. Rainfall 110% in the north/west to 60% in the south east, spells of active atlantic weather. Sunshine 5-15% above normal.
[b][u][u]OCTOBER [/u][/u][/b]... warm start, cooler end and wet, windy and changeable at times. Temperatures 0.5C below to 0.75 above the normal. CE
At the [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4452-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013/"]start of August[/url] I posted a blog entry giving a forecast for the winter ahead now 30 days later it's time for an update.
[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]
[b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Still looking average for the UK but Southern Scotland below average.[/font][/color]
[b]November:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for mo
[b]Headline: Rather cool, sometimes windy, rain or showers at times to Thursday. Dry and warm start to September[/b]
A short drier interlude for a few days last week for most of us, although the Lampeter area did get heavier and more widespread showers on Tuesday than anticipated!. The Aberystwyth area had thunderstorms during Friday, but yet again these evaded the Llanwnnen area! The Midlands experienced heavy showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.. August is turning into another thoroughly
[b]Headline: Often dry and quite warm; unsettled and cooler with rain at times for the Bank Holiday weekend[/b]
August has so far proven a rather warm but unsettled month, a vast improvement on the first half of Summer! During the past week Llanwnnen has received almost 2 inches of rain and it's pouring this morning, so a wet week. This weekend has been warm but nothing compared with South-east England which reached 32c on Saturday - the hottest of the Summer so far. Sunday will be equally hot
[center][b]The Biggest Weather Events Through The Winter And How They Were Forecast[/b][/center]
During the winter of 2011 into early 2012 we had some very active Atlantic storms this was due to a strong jet steam. The winter of 2011 and 2012 will not be remembered as a cold and snowy one but we did get some cold weather near the end.
[b]11[sup]th[/sup] September 'Hurricane Katia'[/b]
[center][attachment=138689:katia.jpg][/center]
The first low pressure system headed towards the Brit
I've stated recently that I'm not a big fan of the phrase, "rules are rules".
Firstly, what does the phrase mean? It's often not entirely clear, but in general there are two main interpretations:
Definition 1. "Rules must always be obeyed and infringements must always be punished"
For example,
[i]X is prohibited.[/i]
[i]People who do X should therefore be punished for disobedience. If you allow people to get away with breaking rules you'll end up with anarchy.[/i]
[i]If people wan
[b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and showers, heavy at times, with warm, drier intervals between[/b]
A mostly dry and warm week just gone, Llanwnnen reached 80f on Friday. Flashes of lightning here last night , but the thunderstorms stayed in the distance. A good dose of rain to come this week, especially for west Wales, but with warm, sunny intervals between times, these more likely for the Midlands. However, dry days at a premium in the coming week.
A rather warm and humid Sunday afternoon,
[b]1992[/b]
Severe overnight thunderstorms experienced at Fleet, Hants, only hours after returning from Cornwall holiday (Par). A very muggy and humid morning on the beach and low cloud broke up to allow hot sunshine on Saturday 8th. My fear that an active plume event had hit home areas and I had missed a fantastic storm were groundless - had to wait to get home to find out - no internet or versatile mobile phones in 1992 (just 'brick' phones!). During the train journey home around 6~9 pm on th
[b]2002[/b]
Guildford: Heavy shower at 1540~1600 GMT then 1725~1727 GMT. 4.5 mm. Thunderstorm to N.W. moving East towards London between 1809~2010 GMT. Lightning observed in cloud 1900~2005 GMT. Some spectacular pink-orange coloured forked lightning. Torrential rain and some flooding reported from Bisley and Wood Street (North Guildford).
This outbreak got very close to the site with torrential rain and flooding only 5 km to the north.
The severest conditions were about 10~20 km north of the
[b]1981[/b]
Big thunderstorm reported from Fleet in morning from about 7 am to 11 am. 25.5 mm rain fell. I was away in Cornwall and missed this event. Although I have always enjoyed thunderstorms, this was before my interest in weather really developed - that happened 5 months later with the fantastic snowy and cold 1981~1982 winter and thundery 1982 summer.
This storm was more severe at Guildford and records show about 32 mm rain fell in two distinct storms, one before 8 am and the other afte
[b]2004[/b]
Guildford: Thunder 1441 GMT. Thunderstorm with heavy rain 1513~1540 GMT. Overhead discharge (Guildford, Tesco) at 1517 GMT. Thunder to 1600 GMT.
FLEET: Thunderstorm with very heavy rain at times from 1520~1620 GMT. Slight hail. 13.0 mm rain. Torrential rain with minor flooding at Farnborough. (Extract from my Climatological Observers Link & Weather Observers Network returns).
[b]Headline: Becoming warm, then even quite hot; mostly dry after Tuesday[/b]
Although we have all seen quite a few showers in the past week, there has also been some decent dry and sunny spells between times, and with the temperatures close to the Summer average, feeling quite pleasant. Coventry and Rugby have, as is usual, experienced thunder with the showers over recent days, while here at Llanwnnen, no such luck, in fact I have not heard thunder since July 2011, quite a storm drought tha
[b]1984[/b]
Heavy overnight rain, from slow moving shallow depression near S.W. areas, was preceded by downpours in Cornwall and Devon. There were rumours of holidaymakers making a 'massed exodus' out of Teignmouth the previous (Friday) evening. 29.5 mm rain fell at Fleet.
[b]1985[/b]
A vigorous depression brings some very unsummer-like weather in a return to poor summer weather after a reasonable July. 14.5 mm fell at Fleet but totals were much higher in local areas such as Alton, Hants, w
[b]1986[/b]
Heavy thundery rain yields 28.0 mm at Fleet, Hants.
[b]1990[/b]
Max. temp was 36.0 deg.C. at Fleet. This was the highest temperature to date exceeding the previous record of 34.0 deg.C on 26th June 1976.
Here's a recap on my month-ahead forecast for July:
[quote]With pressure often high in the Arctic and low pressure systems taking a relatively southerly track, it will be another cool cloudy wet month, though probably not as cloudy or wet as June was.
July has commenced cloudy and wet, but as we head through the first week the emphasis will shift towards sunny intervals mixed with slow-moving thundery downpours. The 3rd July will have an area of cloud and persistent rain moving through Wale
[b]1969[/b]
A very thundery and wet week ended with a spectacular deluge in S.E. and central southern England at the weekend of Saturday 2nd and early Sunday 3rd August. Although the action had been in the S.W. a few days earlier (Plymouth area and much of southern Cornwall had received 100 mm+ rain on the 28th July), it was now the turn of areas to the west of London to have some excitement (none of this 2012 'Guildford missing out' nonsense in 1969!). Thundery rain early on the 2nd yielded 1
[b]1983[/b]
Heavy overnight rain as cold front clears S.E. introducing cooler air. 8.5 mm overnight at Fleet and 27 mm at Guildford. Much of this rain was thundery.
[b]1984[/b]
An unsettled interlude in an otherwise 'good' summer. Windy evening with heavy rain in Cornwall which moved east. Heavy showers to follow with tornado near Doncaster or Conningsby. (?).
[b]1991[/b]
Heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon in Guildford. 12 mm or so and parts of the town were flooded.
[b]1995[/b]
[size=3]Before I start bear in mind I am using the CFS model data and looking out to 6 months so things are likely to change I am just looking at early signs and what its saying at the moment.[/size]
[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]
[b]October:[/b] Average for most but below average in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
[b]November:[/b] Average.
[b]December: [/b]Average.
[b]January:[/b] Average.
[b]February: [/b]Average for South and below average for North.
[b]Temperatures[/b] looking average
[b]1978[/b]
Heavy rain fell overnight and into the daytime as a thundery low moved N.E. over southern England. Fleet, Hants received 30.5 mm raiin on the 30th and another 37.5 mm on the 31st, a total of 68.0 mm in 24 hours (evening to evening).
[b]1981[/b]
2nd morning of a Cornwall holiday having driven down on the afternoon of the Charles and Diana Royal Wedding (29th July). Thundery showers moved north overnight. There was little rain in Cornwall but some very close lightning strikes. The
FLEET: 12.4 mm (est.).
FRIMLEY: Hail at approx. 1100 & Thunder at 1300. (Reported to me).
GUILDFORD: Moderate shower of large raindrops and slight hail at 1141~1145. Thunder 1143, TL 1152 & thunder 1157. Showers at 1236~1245 then 1325~1345 and prolonged shower at 1445~1525 with thunder at 1418, 1438, 1445 (TL), 1454 & 1500. Further shower at 1700~1730 with rainbow as shower moves east. A rather disappointing 4.5 mm rain here.
[b]Headline: Unsettled with rain or showers at times; around average temperatures[/b]
Summer arrived last week with temperatures into the low 80's for the Midlands, and completely dry for most of us until this weekend's showers, however even these have only produced a tiny 0.3mm here at Llanwnnen. We are now firmly back into a cooler, unsettled weather regime which is set to last well into the first half of August. The low 70's f will be the highest readings during the coming week, with ra
After a pretty successful July 2012 forecast.[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] [/font][/color][url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4429-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v20-july-2012/"]forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4429-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v20-july-2012/[/url]
[b]Here is August 2012.[/b]
[b]August 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#FF0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Version 2.0[/b][/font]
