Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Charts looking encouraging for the snow starved south those low pressure systems embedded into that colder arctic air stream could deposit quite a dump in a large area.I do feel that some northern blocking could and should start to show it’s hand fingers crossed.

[nick sussex]

 Lukesluckybunch

It looks like a slushfest .

And a total mess after day 8.

Maybe okay if you live on a hill further north but overall disappointing.

You can never trust the depth of cold shown at longer range with this type of set up.

Anyway there’s more than one option on the table and the ECM has hardly added to its reputation during this winter .

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After that it’s likely to turn into a shortwave and phasing frenzy as a while bloated mess of low heights sits over the UK .

Not impressed ! 

TBF Nick, i don't mind shortwave frenzy over the uk in an Arctic airmass, i hate shortwaves in the GIN corridor when your initially trying to get an Arctic / Polar continental airmass in via blocking.

[LRD]

Don't want to dampen the enthusiasm for UKMO's chart (and to a lesser extent GFS) but MOGREPS is not convincing:

Carlisle

Brum

London (cold, what cold?)

[jy]

Beware the Sussex Shortwave late arrival normally...normally a wrecking ball

[Cold Winter Night]

 Harsh Climate

GEFS mean at 360h suggests a firm High setting up after the trough plunges into Europe, whether it's an 'Atlantic' or an 'Icelandic' High is up for debate.

The panel with individual members reveals that most Highs, if  they build in the Atlantic are not that flimsy IMO. Little to suggest the Atlantic moving back in.
Quite a few even go from Atlantic High to a High between UK and Iceland, some even extending over Scandinavia, with winds turning NE in NW-Europe and at least the Southeastern part of England.

Will be interesting to see if EPS agrees with GEFS on these developments in the extended.

[BIGDOG2]

I’ll believe it when the red met warnings are in place for the next day we have seen these models before and led right up the garden path as we can see these are 7/10 days away a long time in weather prediction 

[stodge]

 BIGDOG2 Well, a little caution is never a bad thing but I've even heard people say it's a downgrade at T+6.

I don't have a clue looking at tonight's output - it's confusing even at the 7-10 day stage let alone beyond.

There's a strong warming in the mix but what strikes me is the rise of heights to the east causing the trough to sit over the British Isles so if I had to put money on the forecast (and very nice money it is too) I'd be in the cold and unsettled camp. Probably rain to lower ground in the south but with altitude further north, snow looks a possible option.

Beyond that, all I'll say is GFS 12Z Control is a thing of beauty in far FI - it's the sort of evolution you want to take home and introduce to your parents. 

T+372 has -12 850s over the British Isles - time to book the Abbey?

[Gowon]

The KMA is very good throughout

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

From my recent post in the Scottish thread

''With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th"

Exciting scenarios appearing within this timeframe, dependant on orientation of the low(s) but definitely potential here for a snowstorm - blizzard within the UK / possibly Ireland.

Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe.

With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts

 

Absolutely Textbook El Ninò, simply stunning 500hpa evolutions

 

[Cloud 10]

GEM 12z ens. mean seems to be super-keen on big Greenland height rises towards the end of week 2 and is a "stonker" for a mean chart at that range.

 

[northwestsnow]

 Cloud 10 I'm getting excited, the only downside is the more excited ,the more the disappointment if it goes belly up

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

The genera trend clear across both clusters is the Euro trough and a high west of Greenland.  Cluster 2 has more of a wedge in the Atlantic meaning that the trough is sharper in the vicinity of the UK through day 9.

T264+:

An explosion of uncertainty at the extended range.  Cluster 5 brings in an easterly under a block through Iceland in to Scandi abd is probably the pick, cluster 3 looks a return to westerly.  Clusters 4 and 6 have a northerly ahead of ridging in the Atlantic, in cluster 4 extending to Greenland.  Clusters 1 and 3 look a lot going on with wedges and so on, would be useful to look at in-between charts as things are moving.  As I say, a lot of uncertainty to resolve, but all with plenty of interest.

[WYorksWeather]

Just a quick post this evening - might be back later but if not just a quick update tonight. Probably another slight upgrade on tonight's 12z GFS - not really a drop in the mean so much but a decrease in the number of mild outlier runs particularly around the 11th-13th further north. Think we need a bit more time to get clarity for the south.

Before that, the next few days look exceptionally mild for most areas, though near-normal at times in Scotland.

[feb1991blizzard]

46 - 19th onwards looks very undercutty.

[northwestsnow]

EC 46  = Febuary cold lock in

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 46 increasing the chances of another SSW just after mid month.

We’ve seen a reversal on some GFS runs too.  The main cluster remains centred on a reduction to 15m/s as it has for a few days.  Will be interesting to watch, because of those that do show a SSW, some have the zonal winds going negative big time.  Just another variable in the mix here, and given how closely the strat and trop have evolved all winter, one would bet on a quick trop response of one of the more energetic SSW members came off.

[Cambrian]

Following on from @Cloud 10, the 12z GEPS with a long fetch northerly flow on the MSLP chart, sourced from the Siberian Arctic..

 

…is not alone at day 16. 

The 12z GFS control ends with an extraordinary setup, with a remarkably similar stamp to it, bringing snow through the UK and Ireland, France, down into northern Spain and Portugal - indeed, a “bank” of snow from Svalbard to Spain.

  

What a delicious irony that would be after all that discussion of Iberian heights.

[feb1991blizzard]

 Mike Poole

Yes - i think another displacement SSW towards the Siberian sector is highly likely, not wholly sure we actually want or need it though.

[LRD]

EC46 would be perfect

Cold from about the 12th Feb until early next month and then getting milder by the 2nd week in March

Of course it won't pan out like that

[Ghost of winters past]

 nick sussex  Yes indeed and as we all remember the ECM shot santa on the run upto christmas then added Bambi to its list..Alot of legs left in this one yet to go..

[Kasim Awan]

I am slightly more optimistic of 9th February onwards. Good agreement for heights to lower over Iberia now with an unstable flow circulating around the UK, this one does look potentially more optimal for precipitation than the January cold spell. Again usual caveats apply. One positive is that the synoptics shown for the upcoming chance are a lot more realistic, and therefore less likely to be subject to massive changes, which was the case on the run up to January's chance. A more achievable level of wintry weather set out here.

[nick sussex]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a warm front this long before .

[johncam]

 Kasim Awan only problem the ECM control and the mean have iberian height back at 360 hrs

[Kasim Awan]

 nick sussex The GFS/ECM have it as more of a cold front over the Atlantic with an occlusion over Scotland.