E.N.S.O. Discussion

[summer blizzard]

06MAR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.4, Nino4: 1.1

[SqueakheartLW]

 summer blizzard

That's a rapid transition to La Nina predicted there. Hope that doesn't mean a washout summer on the way.

However it seems we are maintaining the usual form of a 1 year wonder with an EP El Nino which switches straight to a La Nina the following year.

It seems its the CP El Nino's that have more chance of going multi year.

[summer blizzard]

 SqueakheartLW Yes, indeed. While i'd ignore model strength for now as they are poor, the inability of this Nino to form a sustained standing wave means that it appears likely to collapse pretty quickly even if sub-surface SST's are only -2 or so. 

I think it's more the case that since ~2002 we have arguably been in a multi decadal Nina/-PDO pattern, hence why we are seeing this Nino get sandwitched like 1972 and 2009. 

[Don]

23 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Hope that doesn't mean a washout summer on the way.

CC may well have over ridden the rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina = stronger probability of a washout summer?  Time will tell I suppose......

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 SqueakheartLW I think we shouldn't worry about anything, yes ENSO does come into play but there are other factors like the state of the PV, weather in the tropics, north Atlantic conditions and the state of the arctic.   

[karyo]

On top of the ENSO, what I find really interesting is how well above average are the SSTs in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. In particular, the key area from the west coast of Africa, the Cabo Verde islands and all the way to the Leeward islands and the carribean. If those positive anomalies are maintained for the coming months, they are likely to encourage a lot of tropical storm activity.

Even last summer, despite the developing en nino, we saw a lot of tropical activity as the warm Atlantic managed to overide to some extent the effects of the El Nino. This summer, with the El Nino out of the picture there should be less shear and more storms likely to make it to the carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.

[Don]

11 hours ago, karyo said:

Even last summer, despite the developing en nino, we saw a lot of tropical activity as the warm Atlantic managed to overide to some extent the effects of the El Nino. This summer, with the El Nino out of the picture there should be less shear and more storms likely to make it to the carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Yes, the upcoming Hurricane season could well be a whopper! 

[summer blizzard]

Just looking at transition speed from those who developed a La Nina as forecast and we're at least moderate at peak. 

63/64: +1.4 to -0.6 was 6 months.

73/74: +2.1 to -0.5 was 5 months.

83: +2.2 to -0.5 was 8 months.

87/88: +1.7 to -0.9 was was 9 months. 

94/95: +1.1 to -0.5 was 8 months.

97/98: +2.4 to -0.8 was 7 months.

09/10: +1.6 to -0.7 was 6 months.

15/16: +2.6 to -0.5 was 8 months.

Closest decline thus far is 1998 and 2016. We are tracking about a month ahead of 98 and 2 months quicker than 16 given the same pace but lower peak. 

So current tracking suggests 6 months which is at least -0.5 in MJJ. 

First year Nina's declared by MJJ are 54, 64, 73, 88, 07, 10.

 

Edited March 16 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

13MAR2024: Nino3: 0.9, Nino3.4: 1.1, Nino4: 0.8

Sub-Surface down to -4. 

[summer blizzard]

Going, going, gone. 

[Don]

 summer blizzard looks like a bit of a crash!

[cheeky_monkey]

 Don yep look how much the waters round south America have dropped in just the last 7 days some 3-5c 

[sundog]

Was the drop quicker then expected?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Rapid collapses into Nina usually equals wet, doesn’t it? 

[sundog]

With above average temperatures in the Atlantic combined with la nina I presume that could mean a very active hurricane season this yr?

[Don]

 Cheshire Freeze in the good ole days maybe!  Nowadays?  

 sundog I believe an active Hurricane season is expected, yes.

[raz.org.rain]

 Cheshire Freeze theoretically, given the current synoptics, it could very well tip us into an extended dry period.

[kold weather]

 Cheshire Freeze historically rapidly changing El nino - La Nina have ranged from meh summers, to downright awful.

of course there aren't too many years that fit this bill within semi-modern times so we don't know the fill range of possibilities.

we could well have a good one, it just historically the odds arent great, albeit from a small range of years.

one thing that does stand out is there is often a north-south divide at times.

[SqueakheartLW]

Notice CFS is going all in for a Super Nina again

Last 3 Nina's it's done this then it backed right off to weak/moderate in the end. Is this another repeat of the same or will we go to Strong/Super

[Don]

 SqueakheartLW The latest (blue) forecast members are less bullish for a strong/super event, so I would say it will likely tone down the strength.

[summer blizzard]

My general rule with the CFS and most ENSO models is to ignore actual values since they tend to amplify the sub-surface too much when it's rising and falling.

If we look at first year peak values though we get..

54: -0.9

64: -0.8

70: -1.4 (peak in Feb 71)

73: -2.0

83: -1.0

88: -1.8

95: -1.0

98: -1.6

05: -0.9 (peak in Jan 06)

07: -1.6

10: -1.6

16: -0.7

20: -1.3

So the range is -0.7 to -2.0 with a middle ground of say -1.4. 

Worth saying for winter that a weak La Nina is probably preferable to a strong one. 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

last time we went for El Nino into strong La Nina was 2010..winter that followed here was long cold and very snowy 

[SqueakheartLW]

14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

My general rule with the CFS and most ENSO models is to ignore actual values since they tend to amplify the sub-surface too much when it's rising and falling.

If we look at first year peak values though we get..

54: -0.9

64: -0.8

70: -1.4 (peak in Feb 71)

73: -2.0

83: -1.0

88: -1.8

95: -1.0

98: -1.6

05: -0.9 (peak in Jan 06)

07: -1.6

10: -1.6

16: -0.7

20: -1.3

So the range is -0.7 to -2.0 with a middle ground of say -1.4. 

Worth saying for winter that a weak La Nina is probably preferable to a strong one

 summer blizzard

If I narrow these down to La Nina years following strong to Super Nino events we have:

1973: -2.0

1983: -1.0

1998: -1.6

2016: -0.7

Still a range here but unlike the above selection I think these are all CP La Nina events which typically doesn't bode too well if you want a cold winter unless the event is weak.

Of the 4 winters following the 4 above only 1983/84 could come close to cold.

I could still have hope for winter 2024/25 though as the last 2 winters featuring La Nina combined with an expected WQBO have turned out not that bad. 2020/21 had cold snaps and spells scattered throughout whilst 2022/23 did feature that cold December spell as well as the short cold interludes in January and March 2023.

[Don]

6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I could still have hope for winter 2024/25 though as the last 2 winters featuring La Nina combined with an expected WQBO have turned out not that bad. 2020/21 had cold snaps and spells scattered throughout whilst 2022/23 did feature that cold December spell as well as the short cold interludes in January and March 2023.

Main difference between winter 2024/25 and 2020/21 is the solar cycle.  2020/21 came just a year after solar minimum, whereas we will be around maximum come later this year/early next year.

[damianslaw]

 Don Given the current state affairs, no doubt we'll get our next super cold winter when all the signals are pointing super mild, strong la nina, peak solar, west qbo!

Edited March 22 by damianslaw