Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[johncam]

 Midlands Ice Age thanks , my that is suprising as i definitely thought there had been a downward trend since 70's and 80's but as you have shown its been a bit up and down with 79 being exceptional. Thanks again. 

John 

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Kaisla

On 05/02/2024 at 18:54, Kaisla said:

South-westerly winds calmed down and temperatures should be well below 0 C at least in Gulf of Bothnia and Bay of Bothnia. The latter is partly open due to SW -winds of recent days, but by next weekend it should be covered again.

It is also possible that Gulf of Bothnia will gain lot of new ice in coming days.

Weather charts are looking interesting for Barents Sea also. A possible high could bring very cold air west of Novaja Zemlja and maybe winds will be quite weak. Circumstances for refreeze looks quite promising.

Kaisla -    congratulations ...

 The Masie sea extent  has gone beserk today with an increase of over  +300K KM2 (+329K Km2 actually) . The average gain for this this time of year is about +30K Km2.

When I (and Kaisla) predicted 2 days ago that a rapid rebound would occur when the weather settles down again, I was not expecting this... It would seem that the winds have dispersed the ice and as soon as it calmed down that the ice simply sealed back over again.

Masie sea ice extent has leapt up to 14.727 K KM2 and in 1 day has moved to highest in the last 16 years again... the last 4 days  gains were +57K , -16K, +10K and today (+329K) ....

 

Certainly I have not seen its like before in 15 years of ice watching, at this late stage of the season.

The largest gain today was in Baffin sea area (Newfoundland now icing). with a +100K Km2 increase. BIg gains as we forecast could happen in Barents and Baltic with (+63K and +47K resp). Barents increasing by +138K in the last 2 days.

Other increases in most sea areas include (+45K) in the SOO.

All very unusual, and leaving a very good chance that we will easily exceed 15,000K KM2 this year on Masie.

As usual    - a word of caution. Expect an over-average loss correction tomorrow. 

MIA

[Kaisla]

Thank you MIA!

I've learned many things about weather during my weather watcher era. The effect of wind on the ice coverage was maybe the hardest one one to understand or accept.

I couldn't believe my eyes in the past when I checked ice charts before and after the storm. I've seen many times a situation where Bay of Bothnia (the northernmost part of the Baltic) is fully covered with ice and after the storm more than half of the ice seems to be missing.

Most of the ice is still there but wind piles it up. The area gets smaller but volume not so much.

I've also learned that when SST in the Baltic goes below 1 degrees and wind calms down freezing starts soon after and can be surprisingly fast. But because the water mass has lots of heat content left, freezing usually takes more time in autumn than in the middle of winter. Even when the conditions are seemingly equal.

Conditions for new ice in the Baltic are good at least 2-3 days. After that weather turns much milder and windier. In the Barents area next 3-4 days should be dominated by high pressure. Cold and mild winds means new ice. Interesting to see that.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Kaisla

39 minutes ago, Kaisla said:

Thank you MIA!

I've learned many things about weather during my weather watcher era. The effect of wind on the ice coverage was maybe the hardest one one to understand or accept.

I couldn't believe my eyes in the past when I checked ice charts before and after the storm. I've seen many times a situation where Bay of Bothnia (the northernmost part of the Baltic) is fully covered with ice and after the storm more than half of the ice seems to be missing.

Most of the ice is still there but wind piles it up. The area gets smaller but volume not so much.

I've also learned that when SST in the Baltic goes below 1 degrees and wind calms down freezing starts soon after and can be surprisingly fast. But because the water mass has lots of heat content left, freezing usually takes more time in autumn than in the middle of winter. Even when the conditions are seemingly equal.

Conditions for new ice in the Baltic are good at least 2-3 days. After that weather turns much milder and windier. In the Barents area next 3-4 days should be dominated by high pressure. Cold and mild winds means new ice. Interesting to see that.

Thinking about your post (?) , I have thought of another possibility for ice loss - that the  apparent (non existent) ice loss, could well be the action of the waves breaking over the thin layer of ice..  The satellites measuring the ice extent do so by searching for the reflection from the surface of the ice. The sea water could travel a long way as the ice is flat. The action of this intervening water will be to shift the wavebands received back at the satellite, and thus diagnose water, when the ice is probably still just beneath the surface.  I have watched this process in my garden pond this winter when it froze over and I decided to increase the amount of water available(level was too low)  The ice stayed beneath the new level of water and then very easily froze over the next night. Its obvious really!!

It  explains the facts we observed perfectly, as we already know that the satellites have a known problem with so called ice ponds very early on in the season, and also later on when melt starts up. 

Thanks again for your contributions.

MIA 

[claret047]

Good morning everyone.

I thought I would post the attached link, which indirectly relates to ice coverage in the Arctic.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds/ar-BB1i39Vg

It is something I have often pondered- i.e. is the climate self regulating?

I note that it is only one season but we have more ice than in recent years, although the article has not caught up with that fact.

Kind Regards

Dave

Edited February 10 by claret047

[Kaisla]

 Midlands Ice Age  I remember reading about the challenges satellites and researchers have when dealing with ice. So, you are probably right. About the heat content. When water starts to freeze, it means that the surface of the water has reached freezing point. 20 cm:s deeper water could be maybe 0,2/0,3 degrees above freezing point. Water is layered by temperature.

Right beneath the newly formed ice, water temperature is close to freezing point. If conditions remains the same, thickness of the ice grows until the balance between the air and water temperature is reached.

Then a storm comes, ice breaks to bigger and smaller pieces and water gets mixed again. As a consequence water temperature rises and that causes some of the ice to melt.

I think this is also a factor, when we wonder what happened to ice. I can't say how much piling up, measurement challenges and actual melt contribute to the problem.

[johncam]

MIA 15k does this looks right , seems a large jump??

[Midlands Ice Age]

 johncam

Thanks for your comments.... I've been to the Lakes for 4 days without Wifi - so no data.

During this time Masie exceeded 15M KM2 (as you suggest) as at one of the earliest date in its record (17 years), so it is worth reporting.

The 'record' was set with a new huge gain of (+276K) on sunday to 15.047K KM2.

Since then a drop of 78K and a further 20K gain today sees it just below 15M km2.

  Still well in excess of the latest years.

It seems as though the main inner areas are now petty full (only Barents may still grow from here) whereas the 'outer' areas are very surprisingly still in growth mode, despite the record SST's and worldwide temps being  claimed.

Bering has gained 100K and the SOO (+50K) out into the Pacific, again  despite the EL Nino there.

Barents (+50K) and the Baltic have also further gained and both are now at new highs  for the season. This we forecast in here due to the filling of the violent storm. 

The North American ice levels have recovered steadily from their poor season and are now circling Labrador,  about to schedule.

During this 'recovery' the Arctic DMI temps are falling rapidly again. How low will it get - and where is the polar vortex this year? All very interesting..

   

MIA

 

  

Edited February 14 by Midlands Ice Age

[WYorksWeather]

 Midlands Ice Age To be fair I do think the nature of the last 12 months or so of temperature anomalies have aided ice growth. It makes sense that there's not been an exceptional fall in ice cover in the Arctic, because if you look at the anomalies, there's really nothing all that spectacular for 2023 (orange) and 2024 (black).

Compare and contrast the Tropics:

Or the overall global temperature:

It is perfectly possible for global temperatures to be record-breaking (eight months in a row up to and including January), and yet this not be reflected in the Arctic. The total area above the Arctic Circle is only about 4% of the Earth's surface.

So I don't really think there's any contradiction between unspectacular Arctic anomalies, and record warm global temperatures and sea surface temperatures.

[Dare i watch the GFS 06Z]

January 2024 ends up in the top 10 list ice extent wise for the baltic sea since 1980, not overly impressive but still

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Dare i watch the GFS 06Z

Thanks for the data above, I have seen that this year (2024) we have now moved up to 138K KM2.. So still growing despite the milder temperatures.

I have been looking into the total Arctic ice extents (via Masie) at when the total reached over 15M KM2. Years not shown did not reach 15M Km2. (Ie 2015, 2017-2019 and 2021) .

The data follows here -

Year       Max for year        Day of max     Date over 15M (earliest first year order) ***

2008       15651                     072                     037

2013       15550                     073                     041 

2024        15048                    042                     042   (so far!)

2012        15296                    062                      047

2009        15326                     062                     048 

2010         15298                    077                     049

2014          15298                   065                     051 

2016          15077                   061                     057

2022          15065                   060                     059

2020          15129                   063                     061

2023          15005                   064                     064

2011          15110                   067                     066 

I find it very interesting as it shows longer spells of larger extent and also that they normally started quite early on. Recently the limit has not been reached, until around day 60, until this year. Note this year is the 3rd earliest and also note that Masie may be inaccurate for the earliest dates. 

MIA                                     

 

Edited February 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

To be fair I do think the nature of the last 12 months or so of temperature anomalies have aided ice growth. It makes sense that there's not been an exceptional fall in ice cover in the Arctic, because if you look at the anomalies, there's really nothing all that spectacular for 2023 (orange) and 2024 (black).

etc

Thanks for the above.

The tropics  - I am not certain why it is shown in here!!!

Meanwhile back on topic...

The Arctic temperatures are  above where they were in the 2000's, according even to your own chart.

 https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic  

(Sorry I cannot show it directly for some reason, but if you 'hide all' then select years 2006 - 13, then 2023 -2024 you can see the temperature  effect  ). 

I do not disagree that the temps in spring (and summer)  have been the same but for the autumn and winter they have been above the longer term. So why are we seeing increased and earlier ice formation particularly for this winter?

it looks as if the last 3 or 4 years have seen a tendency for increased and earlier ice  formation, despite temperatures being increased worldwide by about 0.5C.   I agree it could be  only a small (possibly transient) phase, but surely it is not without interest?.

MIA

Edited February 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[jonboy]

 Midlands Ice Age

17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

So why are we seeing increased and earlier ice formation particularly for this winter?

for what its worth we know that snow fall can help in the formation of sea ice. We have seen this winter an increase in the intensity of both rainfall and snowfall which I would suggest is a result of the extra water vapour in the stratosphere, as a result of Hunga Tonga, making its way back to earth. This increase in intensity of any early snowfall would in my opinion have helped in the early ice formation this year. We may well see this next year also but thereafter unlikely.

[Midlands Ice Age]

I have managed to show a screenshot of the relevant data for you...  (re my previous note).

MIA

Edited February 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

35 minutes ago, jonboy said:

for what its worth we know that snow fall can help in the formation of sea ice. We have seen this winter an increase in the intensity of both rainfall and snowfall which I would suggest is a result of the extra water vapour in the stratosphere, as a result of Hunga Tonga, making its way back to earth. This increase in intensity of any early snowfall would in my opinion have helped in the early ice formation this year. We may well see this next year also but thereafter unlikely.

Thanks john..

 Just checked Rutgers and it is currently well down on average. 

Perhaps all the snow has fallen out to sea in Baltic and the Pacific Ocean?

      

Although more seriously undoubtedly snow does help the ice to seed... It is a question as to how long it will last.

The other  thing to impact it could be the saltiness of the water.

MIA

 

Edited February 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[WYorksWeather]

 Midlands Ice Age Sorry, think we got talking at cross-purposes. I thought from your earlier comment you were casting doubt on the overall global temperature due to the anomaly in the Arctic, so I was emphasising how small an area it is, and comparing to the tropics as an area with the opposite trend.

Whereas if I'm understanding what you're asking, you're saying how do we explain the increased ice cover in the Arctic despite higher temperatures? In which case another suggestion I would throw in, is that it could be that if there's less depth of cold in the core Arctic, and it's more spread out, you end up some of the outer areas freezing more quickly.

It might be interesting to see what is happening to ice volume this year, to see if there'd be any support for this.

[damianslaw]

 Dare i watch the GFS 06Z Ah what could have been..all the years mentioned correlate with notable cold in either or both Dec, Jan and Feb with exception 2002-03. We were robbed of winter this year!

Edited February 15 by damianslaw

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Sorry, think we got talking at cross-purposes. I thought from your earlier comment you were casting doubt on the overall global temperature due to the anomaly in the Arctic, so I was emphasising how small an area it is, and comparing to the tropics as an area with the opposite trend.

Whereas if I'm understanding what you're asking, you're saying how do we explain the increased ice cover in the Arctic despite higher temperatures? In which case another suggestion I would throw in, is that it could be that if there's less depth of cold in the core Arctic, and it's more spread out, you end up some of the outer areas freezing more quickly.

It might be interesting to see what is happening to ice volume this year, to see if there'd be any support for this.

Probably - I am trying to keep CC out of the thread and simply keep it to the data and when the data looks 'odd' report on it - to ask for some suggestions as to why or why not? Warming is still very current all over the world - but why is the sea ice extent not following the  predicted forecast at the moment?

A further pair of graph has come to light, only today,  showing the amount of ice in the Arctic by month (thanks to the ASIF)  -

           

Both show the the apparent change (EL Nino related?) over the last 3 years. Is it related,  or will it change back again soon?. I  have already shown above that Masie also shows the same characteristics recently, and we had a previous dialogue on the faster than normal response in the outlaying areas. These 2 graphs appear to show that the effect has carried on during the rest of the refreeze.

Half monthly reports on volume should be out tomorrow.

Keep watching. 

MIA

Edited February 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

 Midlands Ice Age Why would you want to ignore AGW, MIA, especially given that the Arctic seems to be one of the worst-hit areas? Increased warmth = increased H20 = increased snowfall, I think. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Midlands Ice Age I'm not sure you could really say it's incompatible with predicted forecasts at the moment. I found the following January average extent graph on NSIDC.

Obviously the trend line is plotted as linear, but I think you'd need a fair few more years to posit a change of trend.

The easiest explanation at the moment is probably just natural variability - it'd take a few more years without a further decline before there'd be a good case for a change of trend I think.

I'm going to keep CC out of this as I have no wish to derail the thread, but worth illustrating that there was a similar period after 1998 in the CC / global temperature debate when many people thought warming had halted.

Probably if we get to around 2030 and we're still marvelling at the relative stability of Arctic ice, at that point there may be more reason to suggest a change of trend.

The other thing I would note is that almost all predictions show that the trends in summer ice are much less 'bumpy' than the trends in winter ice, and the reason for that is that increases in temperature in winter don't always slow ice formation - they can accelerate it if more snow falls or other weather systems change e.g. ocean circulations or the jet stream, whereas increases in summer temperatures will extend both the length and intensity of the melting season.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Methuselah

I do not ignore warming Meth..

but it has caused arguments in the past which are unnecessary on this thread. 

I let the data speak for itself...

In any case there is  climate change thread for you to wax lyrical in, in which I will happily partake if you cared to make those constructive comments over there.. 

After all the increases in sea ice will disappear shortly, as we all know.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

 WYorksWeather

Don't disagree...

I deliberately showed graphs of linear and sinusoidal to show both trends in my post.

But to keep reporting the data must be good??

MIA

Edited February 15 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

 Midlands Ice Age My point is that it's hard to ignore it -- I'm in no way trying to disparage your thread; it's a brilliant topic. . . But AGW impacts everywhere?  

[matty40s]

In view of the posts above, I'm posting a fact.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 matty40s

I have reported widely on here that North America this year has had a poor ice and snow growth season. 

This year it is the Siberian  Arctic and oceans which has exceeded its last 10 years.

MIA