Moans, ramps and banter

[danm]

 B87 looks like we’ll get some decent sunshine and 17c/18c tomorrow. 

[Josh Rubio]

 Alderc 2.0 Hasn’t this happened quite a few times, where the GFS is the first to show less settled weather, with the other models following? I guess we just have to keep an eye on the next few runs. 

[B87]

 danm Yes, but tomorrow is a one off. We have to wait a while still for it to be stable 6-8 hours of sun a day with average or above temps.

[danm]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, June 2013 was the final month of that sustained cold period with January to June all coming in below the 1961-90 average. Imagine the prospects of that happening now?!  It flipped spectacularly after the opening days of July.

Pretty incredible that, every month from Jan to June 2013 being below average, significantly so in some months.

[Josh Rubio]

1 minute ago, danm said:

 B87 looks like we’ll get some decent sunshine and 17c/18c tomorrow. 

Sunny intervals for us tomorrow, with a maximum of 15 degrees forecast. 

[danm]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

Yes, but tomorrow is a one off. We have to wait a while still for it to be stable 6-8 hours of sun a day with average or above temps.

Yep but small victories, we have to start somewhere. 

[B87]

 danm March 2013 was Heathrow's coldest March on record. Average max of 6.9c was 4.8c below average. That's December 2010 (-4.9c), April 2011 (+4.7c), July 2018 (+4.4c) and December 2015 (+4.9c) territory.

[B87]

 danm I'd rather the late April sunshine was saved for May. This April has been catastrophic for sunshine and doesn't deserve any more. Any amount that would count towards May's total is needed to finally get an average or sunny month.

[Mapantz]

OK for some, crap for others

[Bristawl Si]

It's gonna warm up

 

[danm]

 B87 luckily sunshine now doesn’t stop it from appearing in May! I’ll take both. 

[B87]

 danm I feel that May will be duller than average, though it can't be worse than this April.

[CryoraptorA303]

 B87 It's a shame that Heathrow wasn't recording during the early 60s, as March 1962 was even colder than 2013. 1888, 1892 and 1962 were all colder than 2013 nationally, so it'd be interesting to see what Heathrow would have recorded if it was live during these springs.

2013 being the fourth coldest March on record since 1884 is extremely impressive though, one has to assume that it would've been the hands-down coldest pre-1990. Certainly 1/100 year if not multicentury level. What a shame that such an event will likely not be repeated in our lifetimes.

[SunSean]

 B87 "Can't be worse than this April"-

May 2024- Hold my beer! 

Let's hope not anyway, praying for that 1959 May to October still!

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 It was recording during the 1960s, March 2013 was colder than March 1962 by average max. 6.9c in 2013 vs 7.4c in 1962.

March 1962 apparently was colder by mean though, 3.4c vs 4.1c.

Heathrow's coldest months on record are...

Jan: 1963 (0.8/-4.6c)

Feb: 1986 (1.7/-2.7c)

Mar: 1962 (7.4/-0.6c)

Apr: 1986 (10.9/3.2c)

May: 1996 (15.1/5.9c)

Jun: 1972 (17.5/9.0c)

Jul: 1954 (19.2/11.7c)

Aug: 1956 (18.8c/10.9c)

Sep: 1952 (16.4/7.6c)

Oct: 1974 (11.0/5.0c)

Nov: 1952 (7.5/1.6c)

Dec: 2010 (3.9/-1.5c)

A year with those months would be catastrophic. I imagine most plant life would be absolutely obliterated, and many would probably leave the country.

Edited April 28 by B87

[Daniel*]

Heathrow temp/rainfall data from January 1948

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt
 

sunshine began being recorded in January 1957 with Campbell Stokes recorder was used until October 2005 where it was changed to automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor.

[Nick L]

 Bristawl Si It does make me laugh that 21C at the beginning of May is being touted as something amazing. Shows how dreadful this spring has been.

[danm]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

I feel that May will be duller than average, though it can't be worse than this April.

There’s literally no way to know.

[Summer8906]

 Nick L Possibility of another 5mm+ today and tomorrow to get you over the 100mm?

[Summer8906]

As expected, southwesterly grot is streaming in and it's a pretty miserable start of generic low-ish cloud streaming in off the Channel.

If you want an explanation of why most summers here since 2015 have been pretty miserable, today is it. This is the typical summer day of the late 2010s and early 2020s here. Southwesterly grot, generic dishwater cloud, and damp air. Not a lot of rain, but perhaps some passing light showers.

August 2019 was very like this here, and sums up why I considered that a poor summer month.

 

[78/79]

Not had a lot of work lately, a friend has asked if I could tidy up her garden, lay some slabs, edging etc. 

Arranged to start on Thursday, and what do I see,it's going to bl,,, dy p, s down, you couldn't f,,,, in make it up.!!!!

[Summer8906]

Been outside now. Very, very humid, sticky and oppressive today. Not nice at all.

This week does seem to be one long low-fest. This low hangs around today and tomorrow, there's perhaps something of an interlude on Wednesday before another low moves in from the east this time on Thursday, all the way across the country before slowly retreating eastwards again through Friday and into Saturday.

In better news the GFS 00z is killing off the weekend low, with something of a weak ridge across the SE. Still something of a SW-ly (albeit a slack one), so probably not clear blue skies, but at least it might well be dry.

Next week continues to look ok, but most recent GFS runs are showing a return to a cyclonic rainfest of one sort or another for the week of the 13th. When will we get a prolonged settled spell? March 2025? Beginning to wonder...

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[stainesbloke]

A lovely sunny start in west London. Let’s see how long it lasts…

[Summer8906]

 stainesbloke You might get lucky as in this kind of synoptic London is always significantly better while we get constant damp and humidity off the channel - in addition to being further west and thus closer to the low.

See many previous discussions on August 2019 (which was full of these kinds of synoptics) here vs London for example...

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Nick L Never mind 21C, when will the first two-week-plus settled spell arrive? Now that really will be amazing (but again, it really ought not to be...)