Moans, ramps and banter

[TwisterGirl81]

I would like to know which countries have been benefiting from our misfortunes for several months….ie dryer, sunnier, warmer…..

[SunSean]

 Shunter No idea, probably have the technology though! I just think we've been unbelievably unlucky with 2 late season SSW's in a row which gives constant Northern blocking, completely ruining Spring, plus the Hunga Tonga eruption (January 2022), which doesn't get talked about enough in regards to this unrelenting wet spell- All the billions of tonnes of water vapour shot into the atmosphere HAS to go somewhere & considering the lag of when it would take affect (6 months or so), it lines up more or less right and supposedly the effects would last a couple of years. Make no mistake, that eruption was no small shake, VEI6...we do NOT get many of those (last one I believe was Mount Pinatubo in 1991) so it's bound to have had an effect & people can laugh at me or whatever but I couldn't care less- In my opinion, Hunga Tonga eruption is the reason for this unrelenting never-ending wet spell.

From August 2022, for Heathrow, our average precipitation has been 70mm per month and a total of around 1470mm since then. I place mid August 2022, about 6/7 months after the eruption, as the beginning of this saturating never-ending wet period. Going by a roughly 2 year effect, you could make a guess that this wet spell may come to a close anywhere between June 2024 & October 2024, but then we have winter which is notoriously wet by nature, if the spell is on the longer side, so may have to wait til around February 2025 & potentially a great Spring onwards (Unless yet another SSW arrives lol).

That's just my 2 cents anyway, going by what I've observed, effects over time, data, thinking critically etc- I could well be wrong but I think it's definitely an avenue of exploring as to why this wet period is dragging on so long.

[TwisterGirl81]

Looks like a sunny day for us is incoming as the cloud moves further east, hopefully you guys further east benefit at some point today too, thankgod 

Edited April 28 by TwisterGirl81

[Shunter]

 TwisterGirl81 Russia and Eastern Ukraine .  Western and Northern Europe including the Baltic states have all had inhibiting and inclement weather for most of the past 6 months.

 

[SunnyG]

 Wold Topper I don't need a crystal ball. I have the evidence of this past autumn and winter. How many times have we been told a dry and settled pattern was coming only to be presented with yet more rain?

[SunnyG]

 ANYWEATHER We all hope for that, but how likely is it? Not very.

[SunnyG]

 TwisterGirl81 Southern Europe? A friend of mine was in Tenerife in January/February and he enjoyed wall-to-wall sunshine.

[TwisterGirl81]

 SunnyG maybe certain parts of Spain, the jet has been so far south that Spain and France has suffered from many low pressure systems as well….

does anyone have any stats? Have they been wetter and duller overall for many months too?

[reef]

 Shunter There's no truth in it, its utter nonsense.

Already 17.2mm here since midnight. Now up to 74.8mm for the month, 160% of average. That whole mass of rain is going to pivot back towards us soon aswell, so we'll probably finish the day north of 25mm.

That's 10 months in a row wetter than average, or 12 of the last 14 since March 2023.

[reef]

 TwisterGirl81 Spain was drier than average in 2023. They had a pretty severe drought in 2022 which extended into last year:

As for us, the image says it all.

 

[Snowy L]

5C, rain. 3 days from May.

[midlandsun]

 TwisterGirl81 I have mates who live in Spain and the canaries and they've all said said the weather has been chilly and wet for a few weeks now. So we're not alone with this crap weather for a change.

[marky810]

4.7c here on my weather station. 4c on the airport atis with moderate rain and a north westerly gusting to 24 knots. I’m sure this will improve in March/April 

Edited April 28 by marky810

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, SunnyG said:

I think people who believe we'll have a dry hot summer are gonna be very disappointed. This pattern is here to stay for medium term (I consider June/July as medium term). Maybe it'll change in August?

Can you tell that, though?

End of April 2018 and 1989 were both still rather cold and changeable. In both cases things changed rapidly, admittedly more rapidly than appears to be the case this coming week.

At this point in 1983 it was much worse, with May 1983 much worse than the models are showing for next couple of weeks -  yet that was a hot summer.

Edited April 28 by Summer8906

[SunSean]

Another point regarding big volcanic eruptions & effects on the UK- The Pinatubo eruption in April 1991, if we consider a lag effect again of around 6 months (beginning around October/November 1991), 1992 & 1993 were exceptionally dull with only May 1992 (similar to June 2023) standing out as a very sunny month. There were many absolute stinker months during this period- Feb (50hrs) Mar (62hrs) Apr (130hrs) 1992, as dull as the Feb to Apr period this year, July (159hrs) & August (149hrs) even September (128hrs) all utterly terrible and then into 1993 that managed to be even worse with only June & August standing out by only reaching around average sunshine. April (127hrs), May (177hrs), July (175hrs) & September (105hrs) 1993 exceptionally dull or below average sunshine. It picked up again in 1994, around 2 years after the effects took hold!

There was another VEI6 eruption before this, back in 1912 interestingly, although a lag effect of around 6 months wouldn't have explained the worst August (1912) on record, unless of course, lags happen anywhere from 2-7 months, which is possible I'm sure!

It's just something I find interesting & could well explain long effects (2 years or so) of persistent patterns. I'm not a meteorologist or volcanologist though but I think the idea has merit & data to back it up. Definitely an interesting idea IMO.

[Summer8906]

 Weather Enthusiast91 I'd swap Sep 1993 for 2000, as the first 6 days of Sep 1993 were sunny and there was one sunny weekend later in the month (18th/19th). The 12th-15th or so and last few days of the month were, admittedly, perhaps the worst September weather I've ever experienced, though, along with just after mid-month in 2000.

Interestingly I can't think of a single truly, truly dire September, 2000 being the closest match but even that had one or two short dry spells in the first half. Perhaps 1974 was the last example.

Edited April 28 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 TwisterGirl81 Greece is one. Too dry, too sunny and too warm there on the whole (hot summer followed by extremely mild and very dry winter, and unseasonable warmth this month), interrupted by very, very occasional extremely destructive rain events (Storm Daniel being the main example).

What this summer needs is a mean easterly or northeasterly flow across Europe, high pressure to the northwest and low to the southeast. Essentially early June 2023 synoptics (the very dry first 9 days or so, with moderate temps) persisting all summer. Should even things out a bit with northern Europe getting a sunny summer and southern Europe a relatively changeable one (though still warm and sunny by our standards).

Edited April 28 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 midlandsun Should at least mitigate the risk of drought and fires in Spain this summer - hopefully.

 

Edited April 28 by Summer8906

[B87]

Feb-Apr rainfall percentage vs average here:

Feb: 223%

Mar: 219%

Apr so far: 162%

Already seen 305mm in 2024, so half of our annual average not even 4 months into the year.

Edited April 28 by B87

[Summer8906]

Downgrade on the GFS 00z now sadly, looks like every single day this coming week, up to and including Sunday, will be rather poor. Tomorrow has troughing in the isobars and thus will probably an overcast, breezy day with frequent drizzle showers - basically the same old cyclonic SW-ly stuff that we "enjoyed" for 9.5 months from end of June last year to a couple of weeks ago.

Then the cyclonic SW-lies are replaced by cyclonic NE-lies, and then finally, next weekend, cyclonic SW-lies again. Utter joy. Probably the worst week since April 1st-7th. Low pressure influence every single day.

Then, in perfect timing, settled weather starts to arrive on the Bank Holiday Monday (but not fully) and more properly arrives on Tuesday 7th. Don't get me wrong, better late than never, but...you couldn't make it up (from the POV of the Bank Holiday weekend).

Edited April 28 by Summer8906

[ThomasD27]

I'm actually quite impressed with how bad the weather is this morning. 17.6mm recorded so far, 5.6c. It has barely dropped below 2mm/hr since 4 a.m, at which point it was warmer than it is now! That makes 76mm so far for April. Whatever happens next week at least we know it'll be better than this (for us in the East, at least). 

[Summer8906]

4 minutes ago, ThomasD27 said:

I'm actually quite impressed with how bad the weather is this morning. 17.6mm recorded so far, 5.6c. It has barely dropped below 2mm/hr since 4 a.m, at which point it was warmer than it is now! That makes 76mm so far for April. Whatever happens next week at least we know it'll be better than this (for us in the East, at least). 

At least one could argue this unseasonable cold is interesting in a way.

Edited April 28 by Summer8906

[B87]

If it now didn't rain at all for the next 10 weeks, we would still be above the YTD rainfall average for 2024. 

Ridiculous.

[A Face like Thunder]

 Cooler on those NE coasts Welcome! I was on the North Yorkshire coast last week and it was dreadful, cold and wet, and muddy and marshy underfoot. I'm told that the weather there today is similar and I'm glad I'm back in Cheshire where it's dry and signs of it brightening up.

[Shunter]

This weather system has moved up from the South yesterday and today. Temperatures today are FALLING , down from 9.5C to 8.1C now ! 

Are we now getting cold winds originating from the South Pole ?