Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

 danm 10C for mid Dorset. Must be the low to the southwest producing prolonged heavy rain and gloom, even still surprised it's suppressing the temps that much.

Mind you the Met Office forecast for the whole of the London and South East area on Wednesday sounds very poor, no hint of 25C:

"Monday cold, dry and bright. Tuesday fog or low cloud gradually clearing then scattered showers. Wednesday outbreaks of rain or showers arriving, chance of coastal fog. Temperatures becoming mild."

So presumably high teens, dull and wet on Wednesday throughout the southeast I guess if that forecast comes off. First time also I've heard "mild" used as late as May, but I guess it gives a taste of the kind of weather, i.e. dull and damp but temps above the seasonal average. So a return to what we endured at the start of this month, I guess.

Seem to be two lows, one to the southwest threatening dull and wet weather midweek (particularly Wed, possibly Tues also) and then, with little or no break, another moving in from the east producing more dull wet weather, perhaps, on Thursday and Friday. Has a very May 1984 or 1994 look about it.

On the other hand the bank holiday weekend doesn't look too bad, Saturday perhaps slightly dodgy with SE England on the edge of the low (not as bad as Thurs/Fri) and Sun and Mon look settled currently with a slack anticyclonic northerly so presumably a return to cleaner air.

Edited April 27 by Summer8906

[Wade]

 Snowy L I get that, obviously people aren't happy as this spring is poor following a bad winter.

[Summer8906]

 Wade ... and bad autumn and summer too, of course. Rare to get 4 poor seasons on the trot but whatever May is like, this spring will clearly be poorer than average. Just like Spring 2018 was poor despite a very sunny May.

Spring 2023 wasn't great either, so perhaps that's now 5 poorish seasons on the trot.

Edited April 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 markyo "Tragic" is used a lot in an informal context though. e.g. "that performance was tragic" in the context of a live music or comedy act.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Wade That seems to be the main issue, especially in the south east. We had an absolutely abysmal December and then an apocalyptic February and March, so while I agree that April for us has proportionally been nowhere near as bad as the last two months were, it's easy to see why those who would prefer the climate of southern France or northern Italy still feel very frustrated by this April.

Personally I really want May to be much better now, I work in a supermarket and I have to deal with the public, and extended runs of weather like this make them even more miserable than Kentish folk tend to be anyway, so in the long term extended periods like this affect my mental health this way too. Not to mention this is a bit much even for me, I do want to see a bit of Sun and more normal temps for the time of year now tbh.

Overall I agree with your point though, we have had a seriously lucky run of very warm Aprils especially but springs in general this century, we were very overdue crap springs. Imo a consequence of the high rate of La Nina we've seen this century vs El Nino which tends to frontend seasons and lead to warmer springs while El Nino leads to cooler springs and warmer, drier late summers/autumns. The 90s which saw quite a high rate of ENSO-neutral and El Nino isn't really known for it's springs but has numerous dry, warm to hot summers. It's quite possible that the streak of warm, dry springs we've had so far in the last 15 years will be broken and we'll have far less notable springs for a while, and the second half of the year which has been noted by many to be surprisingly lacking since the late 2000s might make a comeback as the better half of the year. All speculation at this point of course.

[baddie]

 Summer8906 I would say a good May would balance out a poorish March and April, so if this May is something like 2018, 2020 or even 2023, I would rate this season as an okay one. March and April has been a 4/10 each

[danm]

42 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Mind you the Met Office forecast for the whole of the London and South East area on Wednesday sounds very poor, no hint of 25C:

"Monday cold, dry and bright. Tuesday fog or low cloud gradually clearing then scattered showers. Wednesday outbreaks of rain or showers arriving, chance of coastal fog. Temperatures becoming mild."

Monday cold? Forecast is for 16c and dry with sunny spells. Warmer again from Tuesday but will likely be a mix of sunshine and some heavy showers. 

[TwisterGirl81]

 CryoraptorA303 not just the south east…..at least you guys are usually the first to benefit from actual heat and thunderstorms imported from the continent. The south west tends to get the left overs, I’ll give you that we struck gold from mid May last year  all through June with sunshine 

 baddie well May is our sunniest month here and after the last few mays I expect it’ll be extended that lead 

[baddie]

 Summer8906 Difference is that this week it will be Easterlies dominating. This is probably going to be a case of misty mornings, warm and sunny days and most promised rain doesnt happen. Though, I could be completely wrong

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thursday is a horror on GFS, washout and 11 degrees

[baddie]

19 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

apocalyptic February and March

Has March really been that dire???? A dry week from the 3rd-9th, actually a rather spring-like second half (Although wet). Only the first two days and the 10th-14th have seen the real miserable conditions. It suppose it was duller than average because of the first half, then an average second half for sunshine

[CryoraptorA303]

 baddie Yes, March was absolutely terrible in the south. We blew our average rainfall total within the first 15 days.

[Summer8906]

 baddie I'd tend to say yes on the whole. The first fine spell here was shorter (just 6th-8th) and then there was a showery but bright interlude around the 23rd-24th. Easter Saturday was surprisingly sunny - and that's about it! Aside from the above, more or less continuous dull, wet southwesterlies - the second half was more autumnal than spring-like, aside from the 23rd/24th/30th.

Slightly less bad than 2023 but not much. And April has been worse than 2023 so the spring is probably running about level with 2023 thus far.

24 minutes ago, baddie said:

Difference is that this week it will be Easterlies dominating. This is probably going to be a case of misty mornings, warm and sunny days and most promised rain doesnt happen. Though, I could be completely wrong

Hope so - to be fair you may be right, forecast bad weather in E-lies sometimes doesn't happen.

30 minutes ago, baddie said:

I would say a good May would balance out a poorish March and April, so if this May is something like 2018, 2020 or even 2023, I would rate this season as an okay one. March and April has been a 4/10 each

True to an extent, though I doubt we'll get a repeat of 2018 simply because that was at the extreme end of the spectrum. May 2023, perhaps - but that wouldn't be enough to prevent it being a poor spring.

Edited April 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 danm I was a bit doubtful about the Met Office's cold to be honest, as it has SWlies. I can imagine it will still be cool (I'd have gone for about 14C) for the end of April due to the lingering cool airmass, but not cold as such.

Edited April 27 by Summer8906

[SunnyG]

 Wade Check the heading of the thread. We are here to moan about this rubbish weather lmao

[baddie]

9 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'd tend to say yes on the whole. The first fine spell here was shorter (just 6th-8th) and then there was a showery but bright interlude around the 23rd-24th. Easter Saturday was surprisingly sunny - and that's about it! Aside from the above, more or less continuous dull, wet southwesterlies - the second half was more autumnal than spring-like, aside from the 23rd/24th/30th

Cold, showery NW-lies are not really a good thing (Bright, but otherwise unpleasant). I would take mild and hazy SW-lies over cold NW-lies any day of the week

[Wade]

 SunnyG I'm aware of that

[SunnyG]

I think people who believe we'll have a dry hot summer are gonna be very disappointed. This pattern is here to stay for medium term (I consider June/July as medium term). Maybe it'll change in August?

[SunSean]

Brace yourself guys, 28th April tomorrow- One of the worst ever days statistically for sunshine! 

For Shoeburyness, the average sunshine for this date is a pitiful 2.93 hours. Sticks out like a sore thumb comparing to the 29th which is 5.61 hours on average. It's so bad that every day from 17th to 22nd January are all higher than 28th April on average!

For Heathrow, the average since 2006 is 3.6 hours for 28th April & 27th isn't much better at 3.83 hours. There are many days from 26th February onwards that are higher than these 2 terrible dates. Both averages for Shoeburyness & Heathrow will go down even further with tomorrows overcast/wet forecast!

I wonder why 28th April in particular is so dull. What a strange anomaly.

[baddie]

 SunSean I was shocked to see an overcast day on my birthday (March 25th) this year. Even last years stinker March managed to bring a good half-day of sunshine on that day, and in 2016-2022 it was wall-to-wall sunshine every year

[Don]

31 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

This pattern is here to stay for medium term (I consider June/July as medium term). Maybe it'll change in August?

No reason why this pattern will persist until June/July.

[danm]

37 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

 

I think people who believe we'll have a dry hot summer are gonna be very disappointed. This pattern is here to stay for medium term (I consider June/July as medium term). Maybe it'll change in August?

 

How can you know this? You can’t. 

[Wold Topper]

 SunnyG do you have a crystal ball? Nonsense post to be blunt

[Cooler on those NE coasts]

First ever post , I just want a forecast that doesn’t mention how much cooler it will feel on those east/north eastern coasts! It’s been so chilly lately!

[Metwatch]

Classic case of reverse psychology, expect the worst, but then just maybe the opposite will happen in reality.