Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunSean I honestly think a big part of it is that we live in Britain. Our geographic proximity means we are effectively sat under the giant bum of whatever the Atlantic decides to crap out of its meteorological hole, which can happen quickly and explosively, and completely change the predicted forecast on an hourly-basis.

In my experiences, forecasts have been far more reliable in other countries that I've been in / traveled to. This has ranged from mostly accurate, to bang-on accurate. My favourite instance of this was when I was camping in Ontario Canada with my friend from university who lived out there. She was checking her phone and went "Ok, so it's going to be fully sunny until 3.15 or so, and then a shower for about 30 mins, then sunny again". I replied "how on earth do you know it's only going to rain for half an hour!? And that it starts at 3.15!?" She goes "because it's on the forecast" Well, lo and behold, it did rain at just after 3 for about half an hour, to my shock.

The only other place where it's been similar to the UK i.e. forecast shows zero rain but then out of nowhere it rains, was Banff in the Canadian Rockies - which is understandable because it's subarctic alpine with mountains so big they create their own micro-climates. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Alderc 2.0 What on earth...How is that even possible lol? Literally just a line of heat down the middle of the country that just...stops, like a wall, and then plummets down by 4-6c

Highly doubt that'll manifest like that!

 

1 hour ago, B87 said:

Completely normal though, only 8c below average.

If it were 8c above average we know full well that the ol' extreme heat/climate change/worrying weather manta would be rolled out like clockwork by the press and the Met Office etc. 

When it's the opposite, they're all like "nothing to see here folks!"

Edited April 27 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Shunter]

 B87 According to the Met Office April is still running 1.7C ABOVE average for April !      What utter rubbish  

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Shunter lol. We've had more or less the entirety of the last week comprise day maxes that are more applicable to Feb or early March. 

Early april wasn't exactly warm either. Can only think this is because of super mild nights/lows earlier in the month. Or fudged numbers.

[BruenSryan]

Well according to Roostweather, the estimated mean max for April 2024 is -1.1C below 91-20 average for England.

Central England mean max is bang on 91-20 average. That same value was 1.6C above the 61-90 avg showing how cool April used to be compared to modern. 

That's quite a significant difference 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Don But you like cold

[AderynCoch]

20C and sunny. Much better!

[B87]

 Shunter Month so far at Heathrow has a mean max of 14.9c (-0.1c) and a mean min of 7.3c (+1.3c) giving a mean of 11.1c (+0.6c).

[B87]

 In Absence of True Seasons You know exactly what would happen if it was 8c above average at the end of April, so a day of 25c. Certain people would complain that such temperatures belong in summer, not April, while stating that average winter temperatures (9c) do belong in April!

God forbid we have a 2 week sunny and dry spell as well, after one of the dullest Aprils on record.

[WYorksWeather]

 B87 Heathrow ticked up to 11C recently as did Kew. Still looks like it won't get much higher I'd imagine so probably 5C or so below average. Still a pretty chilly day, though in that sense not particularly remarkable, because the equivalent the other way would be about 22-23C.

 In Absence of True Seasons It's about 5C below average now, not 8C, and actually I've seen multiple posts by the Met Office talking about frost risk / how cold it has been for late April. And the corresponding equivalent on the warm side would be 22-23C, which again wouldn't be particularly remarkable either.

Edited April 27 by WYorksWeather

[B87]

 WYorksWeather This month will probably end up with around 120 hours of sun (-57). The opposite of that would be an April with 234 hours of sun and below average rainfall, and you know there would be complaints.

[WYorksWeather]

 B87 There might be, but not coming from me!

I suppose the point I'm making is that though this late April spell has been poor, it's not been to such an extent that the opposite would be any sort of record breaking or worrying.

 Shunter That's the mean temperature, and compared to 1961-1990. Compared to 1991-2020 and only considering daytime max temperatures it's near average, and may even finish below average.

[raz.org.rain]

The good news is that the models seem to have lost interest in any cooldown after this week's warmup. Some areas could reach 25°c by midweek even.

[SunnyG]

The best thing that can be said about today is that it hasn't rained since early morning. Aside from that,

 raz.org.rain Fingers crossed.

[B87]

 WYorksWeather Temperature wise, it hasn't been bad or anything out of the ordinary, but it will probably be the 6th or 7th dullest April on record, and there's also a high chance that we get an 11th consecutive month with 50mm+ rainfall here.

 raz.org.rain Fingers crossed that actually happens. It's about time we had some warmth!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 B87 oh without a doubt.

7 minutes ago, B87 said:

Temperature wise, it hasn't been bad or anything out of the ordinary,

I think it actually has been quite remarkable for its consistent mildness a(in terms of the month as a whole) and lack of any real warm days other than that one Saturday.

April, especially late April, these days generally sees a few days at 20c+, and several days in the high teens *with* sun. Most of this month has just been a continuation of the "13c and cloudy" default that has plagued so many months since last year.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 AderynCoch What's 20c??

[ANYWEATHER]

Maxing out at around 8c/46f today,  so another cold like January day ,second time in a week! It can only get better from here ,after all its May in a few days time:::::::::::

[Don]

 *Stormforce~beka* And your point is? 

[SunnyG]

 ANYWEATHER It should but will it?

[Azazel]

I’ve seen the rogue 20c disappear from my app for next week now. I’m sure it’ll be down to 12-13 by the time we get there

[Don]

 Azazel We will just have to see.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

What a joke for an entire weekend for the final days of April. 

That is weather for mid Feb, not a few days from May. 

Honestly shocking how dire this is. The absence of any sunshine whatsoever is appalling.

 Azazel oh 100% lol. Any sunny, warm and dry weather is downgraded 9 out of 10 times.

[Wade]

I would love it to be a cooler than average summer this year as we've not seen a below average CET summer since 2015,  bring on the cold baby, that way there is more chance of my grass staying green all summer (like last year, only however because it was wet)

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Wade just...no. lol. This isn't Bergen.