February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

One way to gauge that 13.7°C value is how many times during March that CET mean was exceeded? 

Looking at them myself at the moment, and only 2 days this century!

2017: 03/30: 15.2C

2021: 03/31: 14.4C

2005 is close but still lower on the 17th with 13.1C

Anything close to those before this century you need to go back to 1957 on the 12th of March with 13.4C!

Edit: Missed another one thanks to Sryan pointing it out below, 1990: 18th March with 14.2C

The night min was so high that I don't think anything in March was higher and the combination of temperatures responding quite well in the day is what made it exceptional. Pretty much the first Spanish plume type day in winter, just without anything thundery.

Edited February 17 by Metwatch

[BruenSryan]

 Metwatch There was also 18th March 1990 with 14.2C. 

[Roger J Smith]

 

Preliminary EWP scoring report

 

(note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 86.0 mm for Feb ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued)

 

Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - FEB 2024 __ Annual and Winter Seasonal 

_ based on 156 mm _ 

 

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Feb _TOTAL ___ Jan _Dec __ Avg

now_(Jan)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER ___________EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 3mo  (Ranks, now and (after Jan)

 

_01 _ 02 ___ 82.0 (19) __ noname_weather _____ 6.76__ 24.41 ______ 74.0 __ 37.83 mm _t3 _  (1) 

_02 _ 05 ___ 85.0 (15) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ______________ 7.48 __ 23.39 ______ 71.0 __ 43.17 mm _ 8_ (9)

_03 _ 13 ___122.0 (04) __ summer18 ____________9.46 __ 23.22 ______34.0 __ 37.37 mm_ 2 _ (18.)  

_04 _ 01 ___ 75.0 (31) __ J 10 ____________________ 4.84__ 22.63 ______ 81.0 __ 41.70 mm _ 6 _ (3)

_05 _ 10 ___ 88.0 (13) __ Weather26 ____________ 7.84 __ 22.13 ______ 68.0 __ 48.50 mm_ 16 _  (17) 

_06 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (20) __ godber 1 _______________ 6.66 __ 22.00 ______ 74.0 __ 41.50 mm _ 5 _ (4)

(6.6) _(4.7)_ 75.0 (28) ____1994-2023 average ___ 5.14 __ 21.33 ______ 73.0 __ 46.13 mm _12.2_(8.9)

_07 _ 22 ___130.0 (02)__ Frigid ___________________9.82 __ 20.93 _______26.0 __ 31.50 mm_ 1_  (t10) 

_08 _ 03 ___ 70.0 (35) __ Don ____________________ 3.83 __ 20.92 ______ 86.0 __ 42.17 mm _ 7 _(2)

_09 _ 06 ___ 78.0 (27) __ Feb1991blizzard _______ 5.32 __ 20.86 ______ 78.0 __ 43.50 mm _ 9_ (6)

_10 _ 09 ___ 80.0 (24) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) __________6.10 __ 20.78 ______ 76.0 __ 48.17 mm _ 15 _ (t10) 

_11 _ 19 ___ 94.0 (08) __ February1978 __________8.74 __ 20.67 ______ 62.0 __ 45.17 mm_ 11 _ (14)  

(11.4)( 5.4) __72.4 (33.4) __1991-2020 average __4.31 __ 20.09 ______ 83.6 __ 48.10 mm_ 14.9 _ (19.1)

_12 _ 04 ___ 60.0 (40) __ WYorksWeather _______ 2.92 __ 19.58 ______ 96.0 __ 49.57 mm _ 17 _  (7)

_13 _ 08 ___ 73.0 (32) __ snowray _______________ 4.42 __ 19.54 ______ 83.0 __ 46.00 mm _ 12 _ (8.) 

_14 _ 28 ___105.0 (06) __Metwatch ______________9.10 __ 19.14 ______ 51.0 __ 46.83 mm_ 13_ (29)           

_15 _ 26 ___ 92.0 (10) __ chilly milly ______________ 8.46 __ 18.85 ______ 64.0 __ 47.50 mm_ 14_ (19) 

_16 _ 32 ___166.0 (01) __ stewfox  _______________10.00 __ 18.79 ______10.0 __  37.83 mm_ t3 _ (t43)  

_17 _ 25 ___ 91.0 (12) __ Emmett Garland ________8.02 __ 18.49 ______ 65.0 __ 52.83 mm_ 23 _ (t33)        

_18 _ 20 ___ 83.0 (18) __ jonboy __________________6.94 __ 18.22 ______ 73.0 __ 55.03 mm_ t26 _  (31)           

(18.6)( 8.7)__ 66.5 (37) ___1981-2010 average ___3.48 __ 18.34 ______ 89.5 __ 52.53 mm _22.8_ (9.9)

_19 _ 30 ___ 92.0 (09)__I remember Atlantic252 _ 8.56 __18.12 ______ 64.0 __  50.37 mm_ 18_ (27) 

_20 _ 12 ___ 65.0 (38) __ methuselah ____________ 3.29 __ 17.47 ______ 91.0 __ 55.67 mm _ 28 _  (16) 

_21 _ 24 ___ 80.0 (21) __ dancerwithwings ________6.40 __ 17.16 ______ 76.0 __ 59.83 mm_ 37 _ (t43)      

(21.9)(22.4) _75.0 (28) ____ Consensus___________ 5.14 __ 16.22 ______ 81.0 __  56.83 mm_31.5_(29) 

_22 _ 18 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Reef ____________________ 4.05 __ 16.37 ______ 84.0 __ 55.70 mm_ 29 _ (22)    

_23 _ 37 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 __ 16.17 ______ 64.0 __ 58.17 mm_ 34 _ (t50)             

_24 _ 11 ___ 52.0 (48) __ virtualsphere ___________ 1.48 __ 15.72 ______104.0 __ 51.70 mm _ 22 _ (5) 

_25 _ 34 ___ 84.0 (17) __ Polar Gael ______________ 7.12 __ 15.32 ______ 72.0 __ 57.23 mm _ 32 _ (39)             

(25.9)(19.9)_ 65.5 (37.7)__average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 ______ 90.5 __ 59.43 mm_ 35.8 _ (27.8) 

_26 _ 49 ___100.8 (06) __ KirkcaldyWeather ______8.92 ___14.22 ______55.2 __ 51.37 mm _19 _ (38)                 

_27 _ 16 ___ 50.0 (50) __ The PIT _________________ 1.12 __ 14.05 ______106.0 __  56.50 mm_t30 _  (t23)    

_28 _ 21 ___ 59.0 (44) ___ summer blizzard ______ 2.28 __ 13,46 ______ 97.0 __ 63.50 mm_ 51 _ (t33)             

_29 _ 35 ___ 79.0 (26) __ ScottD __________________ 5.50 __ 13.42 ______ 77.0 __ 54.37 mm _ 25_ (25)    

_30 _ 14 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Let It Snow! _______________ --- __ 13.18 ______ (86.0)__ 51.50 mm_ t20_ (t10) 

_31_ 15 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ moorlander _______________ --- __ 13.13 ______(86.0)___ 53.50 mm_ 24 _ (15) 

_32 _ 29 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ____________2.82 __ 12.84 ______96.0 __ 62.83 mm_ t47 _  (32)              

_33 _ 59 ___125.8 (03)__ Roger J Smith ___________ 9.64 __ 12.62 ______30.2 __ 55.90 mm_ 29 _ (63) 

_34 _ 39 ___ 75.0 (30) __ davehsug _______________ 4.94 __ 12.30 ______ 81.0 __ 62.17 mm_ 44 _ (t47)             

_35 _ 52 ___ 86.0 (14) __ SteveB __________________ 7.66 __ 12.18 ______ 70.0 __ 66.17 mm_ 58 _ (t58.) 

_36 _ 17 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover _____ --- __ 12.30 ______(86.0)__ 51.50 mm_t20_ (t10) 

_37_ 36 ___ 73.0 (33) __ Midlands Ice Age _________4.32 __ 12.23 ______ 83.0 __  61.17 mm_ 42_(40)                

_38 _ 27 ___ 51.0 (49) __ rwtwm ___________________1.30 __ 11.56 ______105.0 __  63.83 mm_ 52 _  (26)          

_39 _ 57 __ 85.0 (16) __ Somerset girl _____________ 7.40 __ 11.18 ______ 71.0 __ 66.50 mm_ 59 _ (t58.) 

_40 _ 23 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Addicks Fan 1981 __________ --- __ 11.03 ______(86.0) __ 55.03 mm _t26_ (20)            

_41 _ 41 ___ 65.0 (39) __ daniel* ___________________ 3.29 ___ 9.82 ______ 91.0 __ 68.17 mm_ 60 _ (53)          

_42 _ 42 ___ 66.5 (37) __summer8906 ______________3.48 ___ 9.88 ______ 89.5 __ 60.17 mm_ 38 _  (30)               

_43 _ 38 ___ 56.0 (45) __ seaside60 ________________ 2.02 ___ 9.63 ______100.0 __ 65.50 mm _t54 _ (37)             

_44 _ 56 __ 80.0 (25) __ weatherforducks __________5.70 ___ 9.56 ______ 76.0 __ 60.50 mm_ 39 _ (t47)                 

_45 _(---) __121.0 (05) __ SLEETY ___________________ 9.28 ___ 9.28 _______35.0 __ 44.83 mm_ 10_  (---) 

_46 _ 31 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ________________________ --- ___ 9.14 _____ (86.0) __ 55.50 mm _ 28 _  (21)    

_47 _ 55 ___ 75.0 (29) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____5.04 ___ 8.95 ______ 81.0 __ 70.50 mm_ 61 _ (60) 

_48 _ 45 ___ 59.6 (42) __ Bobd29 ____________________2.56 ___ 8.36 ______ 96.4 __  70.97 mm _65 _ (31)        

_49 _ 33 ___ --- --- (---) __  John88b ____________________ --- ___ 8.29 ______(86.0) __ 63.17 mm_ t49 _ (t43)              

_50 _ 63 ___ 80.0 (23) __ Leo97t _____________________6.20 ___ 7.81 ______ 76.0 __ 74.83 mm_ 67 _ (65) 

_51 _ 40 ___ --- --- (--- __ jmp223 ______________________ --- ___ 7.08 ______(86.0)__ 57.83 mm _ 33 _ (28 ) 

_52 _(---) __ 80.0 (22) __  Matt Stoke ________________ 6.30 ___ 6.30 ______ 76.0 __  58.50 mm_ 35 _  (---) 

_53 _ 43 ___ 40.0 (56) __ summer shower ___________0.00 ___ 6.25 ______116.0 __ 79.77 mm_ 70 _ (57) 

_54 _ 44 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) __________ -- -- ___ 6.18 ______(86.0) __ 56.50 mm _ t30_ (t23)               

_55 _ 64 ___ 75.0 (28) __ Shaunado _________________ 5.14 ___ 5.64 ______ 81.0 __ 70.40 mm_ 64 _ (61) 

_56 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.60 ______(86.0) __60.70 mm_ 41 _ (36)                   

_57 _ 50 ___ 45.0 (53) __ Weather Observer ________ 0.58 ___ 5.58 ______111.0 __  77.50 mm _ 69 _ (55)             

_58 _ 47 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.56 ______(86.0) __ 60.50 mm _ 40 _ (35)                  

_59 _ 48 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _________________ -- -- ___ 5.45 ______(86.0) __ 68.17 mm _ 62 _ (56) 

_60 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ______________ -- -- ___ 4.88 ______(86.0) __ 62.37 mm_ 45_(41)                   

_61 _ 53 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ______________ -- -- ___ 4.34 ______(86.0) __ 63.17 mm_t49_(t43)                 

_62 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ____________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 ______(86.0) __ 62.50 mm_ 46_(42)                

_63 _(---) __ 67.0 (36) __ snowblind _________________ 3.67 ___ 3.67 ______ 89.0 __ 62.83 mm_t47 _  (---) 

_64 _ 61 __ 49.0 (51) __shillitocettwo _______________0.94 ___ 3.34 ______107.0 __ 84.03 mm _71 _ (64) 

_65 _ 58 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow _________ -- -- ___ 3.30 ______(86.0) __  64.83 mm_ 53 _ (49)              

_66 _ 60 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man _______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ______(86.0) __ 65.50 mm_t54_ (t50)             

t67 _ 62 __ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _________________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ______(86.0) __ 65.50 mm_t54_ (t50)                  

t67 _(---) __ 59.0 (43) __ catbrainz __________________ 2.28 ___ 2.28 ______ 97.0 __ 65.50 mm_t54_ (---) 

_69 _ 65 __ 55.0 (47) __ Norrance __________________ 1.74 ___ 2.04 ______101.0 __ 77.17 mm_ 68 _ (62)  

_70 _ 67 __ 55.0 (46)  __ Neil N ______________________1.84 ___ 1.84 ______101.0 __ 87.50 mm_ 72 _ (66) 

_71 _(---) __ 48.3 (52) __ baddie _____________________ 0.76 ___ 0.76 ______107.7 __ 69.07 mm_ 63_ (---) 

_72 _ 66 __ 40.0 (55) __ syed2878 ___________________0.30 ___ 0.49 ______116.0 __ 94.83 mm_ 73 _ (67)  

_73 _(---) __ 40.0 (54) __ Wade ______________________ 0.40 ___ 0.40 ______ 116.0 __ 87.83 mm_ 66 _  (---) 

 

note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. 

 

Edited February 28 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.5C +2.9C above average. Rainfall 66.1mm 101.4% of the monthly average.

[Don]

21 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

I hope the warmest year doesn't happen.

I can easily see 2024 being the third 11C (or more) year on the trot, which would be crazy (or perhaps not now?!)

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Don I wouldn't have believed it was possible only a short time ago. But some things have altered my perception. 2022 40.3C. June and Sept 2023 both setting temperature records and now this February. 

I'm also looking at the world temperature records being broken on a continual basis.

I believe the ocean temperatures are increasing so rapidly that the long range forecasts cannot keep pace with accurately predicting the full extent of the heat we are experiencing. 

I don't have the technical knowledge of many on here so I can only go on observations.

For me it's an odds on chance. 

Edited February 17 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Roger J Smith]

So in terms of setting new monthly record daily means, we have seen eight fall since 2005:

JAN _ 1st, 2022 

FEB _ 15th, 2024

MAR _ 30th, 2017

JUN _ 19th, 2005 (this was due to v2.0 adjustments, 1947 lost out but only in 2022 with v2.0)

JUL _ 25th, 2019 and again 19th, 2022

AUG _ 12th, 2020

SEP _ 7th, 2023

DEC _ 19th, 2015 (previous record was set in 2004)

______________________

The holdouts are Apr 29, 1775, May 29, 1780, Oct 1, 1985, and Nov 5, 1938. 

(The April record has the largest separation from more recent highs; Nov closest approach was within 0.5 in 1996; but May and Oct have both seen readings 0.1 below the records in 1944 and 2011.)  

[WYorksWeather]

Some rough provisional calculations for today. I've rounded down slightly to be on the safe side. Looks like something around 10C to 10.5C for today, which should notch up another 0.1C for the CET tomorrow, which will leave us at 8.4C in one decimal.

Rothamsted

High 12C, low 8C, mean 10C

Pershore

High 13C, low 9C, mean 11C

Stonyhurst

High 13C, low 7C, mean 10C

I also checked where we are in two decimals, as this may be important if we have a close finish. We're at 8.27C to the 16th.

For those who are interested, we have the following values in two decimals for all Februaries over 7.0:

1. 1779 - 7.87
2. 1869 - 7.49
3. 1990 - 7.33
4. 1998 - 7.23
5. 1794 - 7.16
6. 1903 - 7.11
7. 1945 - 7.10

 

[damianslaw]

Just reflecting on the exceptional warmth brought by current synoptics and what kind of means would they bring in July and August I wonder? Hardly any diurnal difference max and min here, currently 10.4 after a high of 11.1 degrees, what a benign and oh so temperate mild mannered climate we have.

This first half of Feb is reminding me of the exceptional warmth of Dec 15. Its caught many out, don't think anyone was expecting it. We seem to be experiencing some notably very mild 2 week spells or so last 12 months.. last Feb, first half June, first 10 days Sept, last half Dec, last 10 days Jan, and now what looks like first 21 days Feb. 

Edited February 18 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

Two forecasts were actually above 8 in the table of entries, and could finish 1-2 if the outcome was 8.2 or higher. 

Syed2878 said 8.1 which looks quite good now, and Shillitocettwo went for 9.0 and mentioned extreme warmth later in Feb, also a number of forecasts above 7 C which considering the charts we had before us in late January showed a skepticism about the intensity or duration of any cold weather. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.6C +3.0C above average. Rainfall 73.6mm 112.9% of the monthly average.

[Shillitocettwo]

  Jesus my Lettucing is virtually on track with 8.97.C on the tracker (vs my 9.0.C)

 

  I suspect there would be slight downward revision to the Met O.

 

  With cooler (er not cold) conditions next week unless my heatwave rolls in I can't see the prediction coming off however I think there is a very strong possibility of this being the warmest Feb CET on record, it doesn't even need to hit 8.0.C. it comes to something when a polar maritime incursion in Winter is barely capable of knocking the daytime maximum below 10.C!

Lettucing - A month which lands a significantly above previous record CET eg December 2015.

 

   In honour of Lettucing Gutted

[Wade]

We have reached 89mm here, good chance it will pass 100mm by the end of the month if the forecasts are anything to go by and if so, it will make this the third month out of the last six to surpass 100mm. I guess precipitation wise, my prediction for this month couldn't be more wrong. 

[February1978]

Meanwhile, this will be the 8th wetter-than-average month running on EWP. The last drier month was June (though you could say August and January were 'average'). How unusual would this be?

Edited February 18 by February1978
add

[Metwatch]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

also a number of forecasts above 7 C which considering the charts we had before us in late January showed a skepticism about the intensity or duration of any cold weather. 

Your entry looks to be one of the best combined with that high EWP of over 120mm, along with SLEETY and Summer18, just depends on how much the CET will lower from next week!

Another wet one last night, probably adding another 15-20mm overall to the EWP.

38 minutes ago, February1978 said:

How unusual would this be?

7-8 months of average to consecutively wetter than average months seem to only happen in the wettest of years such as 2012 and 1960, so quite rare and we are definitely overdue something drier in the coming months!

EWP monthly data: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_totals.txt

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 17th

4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
4.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Don I think between 2026-2028 will be even warmer still and could generate a monster el niño like in 2014-2016.   Ever since 2022 the red flag signs have been coming for more warming ahead and thats exactly what is coming off basically.   

[BruenSryan]

 February1978 The last time E&W had 8 or more consecutive wetter than avg months (against 1991-2020) was back in 1960-61 from July to February.

Recent periods that got close:

June-December 2019 (7)

June-December 2012 (7)

August 2006-February 2007 (7)

[WYorksWeather]

As expected, another double digit result for yesterday, so my numbers were on the conservative side.

Provisional figures for tomorrow's reporting:

Pershore - Max 15C, min 10C

Rothamsted - Max 12C, min 8C

Stonyhurst - Max 11C, min 9C

Overall mean probably near 11C.

We are currently at 8.41C to the 17th in two decimals.

Therefore, tomorrow  we will already be around 8.55C in two decimals, so we expect tomorrow's value to round to 8.6C, especially given that my figures are slightly conservative, as I rounded down by up to half a degree.

The climb continues. Probably less steep over the coming days, but if we see a few more double digit means we could be anywhere from 8.8C to 9.0C or so before the fall begins.

[emmett garland]

 BruenSryan So maybe s 62 / 63 type winter going forward 

[Snowyowl9]

 emmett garland

Yes when the gulf stream stops..

Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point, study finds..

Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point, study finds | Oceans | The Guardian...

[Methuselah]

That's if you think that the Gulf Stream will stop. How come Greenland had almost tropical flora, a few million years ago, when there was zero sea ice in the Arctic; but the heat got up there somehow?  

[Weather-history]

 BruenSryan

September 2000-April 2001 was very close. 

January 2001 was about 93% of the 1961-90 average, the rest were well above their averages. 

[BruenSryan]

 Weather-history And another close run from March-October 2008 but June was 91% of avg and October 98% - both relative to 91-20. I don't think anybody would call those "dry" months anyway.

May 2012 was slightly below 91-20 avg with 92% whilst April and June-December were all above to well above avg.

Edited February 18 by BruenSryan

[Roger J Smith]

No new CET records, closest on 17th was within 0.4 for high min as 2023 held on to 8.4 C. That in turn had broken 8.1 C (1911). Yesterday's mean was 10.7, record 11.3 (1878 tied 2021). The max of 13.4 well short of 1878's 14.9 C. Values on 16th were not as close. 2024 is about to pass 1869 currently holding first place (CET was 8.9 for 1-17). 2024 now tied second (in one decimal) with 1779 and 1914 at 8.4 C.

 

 

Edited February 19 by Roger J Smith