Spring 2024

[B87]

 Addicks Fan 1981 April 2007 was about as far from this April as you can get. It was routinely warm by day, sunny and very dry.

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 I'm not overly convinced we'll see a repeat of summer 2007.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 raz.org.rain don't even get me started on that summer mate, it was certainly a very poor season indeed, the joker in the pack in other words of the noughties summers.    

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! I know what you mean here regarding the overly-early appearance of flowers and blossoms.

It's a bit worrying if bluebells are already out - I haven't ventured into the countryside yet (waiting for something properly settled) but it would be really unfortunate if we have a spartan, flowerless May with the countryside lacking the fresh look of spring. To have the first 9-month run of wet months since 1872(?) followed by a bland, flowerless May with nature looking "washed-out" and already starting the descent into autumn would be beyond a joke.

Hence I'm strongly favouring any possibility of potent northerlies, which some model runs are still showing. Such a thing would help slow nature down a bit, and save May. On the other hand a mild or warm second half of April would probably kill spring by the end of the month.

Arguably it's been the mildness and not the rain which has been the most damaging aspect of the past two and a half months. Imagine an alternate universe in which we were just coming out of a very wet period, but one which was average-to-cold rather than silly mild. Nature would not be ahead of itself and we might actually have a normal spring to enjoy for the next few weeks.

In terms of the local area, there seems to be a lot of "overgrowth" and the blossoms seem a bit muted compared to normal, it almost looks like a mashup of spring and late summer/early autumn in some ways.

So even if the next 6 weeks is settled, sadly it could be that spring 2024 is the "worst" on record when one considers the state of nature as well as the weather. We need summer and autumn to be unusually good, otherwise 2024 will be a complete aesthetic bust.

I just hope this does not become the new normal and that, while mild winters are increasingly the norm, silly-mild winters like the past few months will remain the exception. Even 2015/6 did not have such an extreme aberration from normal as Feb was less mild and March was cold.

Edited April 9 by Summer8906

[summer blizzard]

I think that any comparisons with 2007 thus far are likely to be coincidental (and not really true in weather type). In 2007 the Nino collapsed after January and SST's were already negative by April. In Feb-April the low -AAM suggested by the collapsing SST's (strong trades and possible atmospheric coupling) actually does tend to produce a somewhat anticyclonic response (for reasons beyond me). Our Nino is still hanging on with a WWB progressing over the next week or two likely to mean that our first collapse attempt won't occur until at least May (although sub-surface SST's are -5).

  

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 summer blizzard thank you for enlightenlightening me on that.  Ironically that spring we had also a positive AO as well for most if not all of the spring.  

[Metwatch]

Looking through various webcams on Windy in the southern part of eastern Europe and found this roughly week long difference in Hungary. An incredibly rapid bloom this spring following the warmth. Pretty much an April 2020 repeat here but on steroids!

Edited April 9 by Metwatch

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain I'm almost sure we'll get a repeat of last summer, but worse (this year June will be unsettled too). I can't see this pattern shifting for longer than a few days at a time. We are stuck in it for the foreseeable, possibly until autumn.

Edited April 9 by SunnyG

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SunnyG This is how I'm feeling

[raz.org.rain]

 SunnyG considering the ENSO flip has been downgraded and we're more likely to see a neutral ENSO summer, it's yet another factor that's favourable to a warmer and drier summer.

[summer blizzard]

 raz.org.rain

Sub-surface anomalies are pretty nuts currently so as soon as they surface we are going to see a stonking fall. We are likely go beyond -0.5 between July and September based on pacing from 1954, 2007 and 2010 which are good matches overall (a little ahead generally).

1959, 1966, 1984, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2016 and 2020 finished Q2 neutral after Nino events finished. 

1998, 2016 and 2020 did move to La Nina by the end of Q3.

 

 

Edited April 9 by summer blizzard

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain I still think we won't see settled weather before autumn. But I hope you are right.

[ANYWEATHER]

 B87 April 2007 = April 1997..

[Summer8906]

 SunnyG What makes you say that incidentally? It would be unprecedented persistence if so. Is it the 1998 Nino-Nina comparisons? Even 1998 had two decent extended-summer months, May and August, and July was also drier than average (but cool and cloudy) - so if we were to follow 1998 the run of wet months would come to an end next month.

This would lead to 14 consecutive wet months, beating the likely 1872 record.

It's very, very unusual indeed - perhaps unprecedented - for a winter synoptic pattern to persist throughout the following spring and summer, so such a thing would be going against what has happened before in just about every other year.

Surely things have to change at some point and the pattern is already changing to something drier and more anticyclonic. What's to say the change will not be sustained?

Edited April 10 by Summer8906

[ANYWEATHER]

 SunnyG May and June seeing good weather conditions this year , July and August, changeable, September stays fair.

[SunnyG]

 Summer8906  Just my opinion based on how we keep saying it'll get less wet and it never does, apart from brief intervals. But of course I hope you're right

 ANYWEATHER Like last year, for some parts of England at least

[Summer8906]

 ANYWEATHER Given I'm likely to be abroad for much of July and Aug, but here during the other months, that would be an optimal solution if we have to have two more changeable months over the summer...

[baddie]

 Summer8906 Didnt 2020 have a flowerless May too??? Janaury and February were very, very mild and wet. March was average, but April was one of the warmest and sunniest on record., then May 2020 was self-explanatory. If we do get a spartan May, im hoping for Easterlies the whole month, which made late-May/early-June 2023 look gorgeous nature-wise despite flowering being over

Imagine how much trouble April and May would be in if we had an anti-2013 spring, particularly being both very warm and somewhat wet
.Feb 2013 flipped over would be a lesser-version of Feb 2019 (Feb 2013 was 2.5c below average and had a lot of North Sea cloud)
.March 2013 flipped over would be a less-dry version March 2012, but still very warm and very sunny
.April 2013 flipped over would be something akin to this April, or 2014

Edited April 10 by baddie

[Summer8906]

 baddie 2020 was a bit of a blur due to lockdown, but yes, I think May was more spartan than normal. I do remember that everything looked a bit "washed out" on the (small number of) dull, damp days that month, and June looked very "washed out", not helped by the cloudy conditions for much of the month.

I guess this year is the first time we're experiencing it in "normal" times. Perhaps 2007 was like this also (exceedingly mild, and dull Jan; very mild and dull Feb, warm and sunny March and April)? My interest in the state of nature wasn't quite as strong then, though, it's been since around 2009 or so that I've been really noticing it.

Regarding 2013, yes spring was almost too late, but when it came, it was spectacular. I'd probably rate 2010 and 2013 as the most beautiful springs aesthetically in recent years, and both came off the backs of cold winters.

Oh well, hoping 2025 is better. Perhaps we will get that well-overdue cold February next year.

Edited April 10 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

Despite some drier sunnier weather on the way in the days ahead, hopefully, we can safely say first half of Spring 2024 has been thoroughly wet and very dull, the mild temps have only enabled more rain and cloud to envelop than usual, a blessing in disguise.

It is rare for a whole Spring to go by with very little dry sunny weather. Lets hope for a change in fortune second half. Statistically the driest 6 weeks of the year, sunshine levels reach their near yearly peak, indeed by late May they peak. Its a period I savour!, but things better change quick.. 2018 a good example how things can drastically change.. but I'm not expecting anything on that level sadly. 

[baddie]

 Summer8906 After February just gone, I would take a February like 2006 or 2013 anyday, Even if i have to tolerate 2c, overcast and breezy dross

Wasnt May 2019 spartan too?? February had that freak 20c warm spell and many other springlike days earlier on, then March was mostly mild and sunny, though the first half was wet, then April was cool in the first half (Except a warm and humid spell on the 6th-8th), then had a hot and sunny Easter Weekend, and a warm and changeable end

Edited April 10 by baddie

[summer blizzard]

May 2020 was delightful and the trees here in full leaf.

[WYorksWeather]

Again, for what little it's worth, here's the latest CFSv2 for May. Warmer than average, but mostly no signal for precipitation (better than wetter than average). The prevalent height pattern involves a blocking high to the north and a trough out west - fortunately the trough out to our west looks much further west, so hopefully it won't pay us too many visits.

Given the reliability (or lack thereof) of the CFSv2 take this with an entire warehouse full of salt, but thought it was worth posting anyway as something to ponder.

[SunSean]

Extremely surprising stat in April- For Heathrow, out of the last 100 days, 20c has only been reached twice! 2 out of 100. Wow.

April 13th 2022- 20c

April 15th 2022- 23c

Edited April 10 by SunSean
Forgot to put April 🤭

[B87]

 SunSean Heathrows last 20c+ day was 13th October, so it's been a lot longer than 100 days.