Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem should head where we want it to around 192. Decent wedge in and around Greenland

Yea,some shortwave drama but hopefully it will do..gfs is also looking a bit slidy at 186

[Mike Poole]

GEM and GFS at T168:

I prefer the GEM here with regards to the first slider low.  The GFS rather making a mess of it.  I think this is just the first salvo though - and should it deliver, it will be one for the north only.  But the upstream low also looks slidy on both models, have to see how the runs pan out, but I wonder if we are now sleepwalking into a pattern of lows going under wedges of high pressure a little earlier than we might have expected.

[Ice Day]

 Mike Poole I'd agree with Mike re this.  Looking at the NH profile at 204, the GFS and GEM are very similar over our neck of the woods

 

This appears to be a rapidly evolving situation so lots to keep an eye on over the next few days.

 

Edited January 31 by Ice Day

[Methuselah]

This week's Ten-Day Trend has something for everyone but, by mid-February, confidence drops off: 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The iberian Heights are draining away now we have the scope to pull this cold air south..if you think this is a bad run then I'm bemused tbh

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs needs to try a bit harder..takes an age for that trough to clear through..and the track isn't the direction we want

[Cloud 10]

A bit off topic,but just sharing this webcam posted on the Norway storm thread.

 

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99839-ingunn-norwegian-storm-also-impacting-the-uk/?do=findComment&comment=5026912

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12Z V 6Z

The model hasn't a clue

 

[MJB]

 Methuselah This week's Ten-Day Trend has something for everyone but, by mid-February, confidence drops off:

It increases, not falls away

[Methuselah]

 MJB  MJB In the medium term, yes; in the longer term, no. But then it never does, that far out.

[CoventryWeather]

Perhaps to note (and also to be corrected by professionals if needed) - the sliders that could hit next week, as they are modelled in Scotland at the moment, is there the chance it continues to be pushed south as it gets closer, or is that only when a cold spell is getting expanded rather than right at the start of one? Hope that makes some sort of sense. 

Anyways, the models definitely improving, seems a wedge is most likely but gives us a much greater chance of seeing some more widespread snowfall from sliders. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

Anyways, the models definitely improving, seems a wedge is most likely but gives us a much greater chance of seeing some more widespread snowfall from sliders.

Yes, I think earlier in the season people would have been hoping that a significant block might establish itself with some longevity, the downside of that with a Greenland block is it could just be cold and dry - longevity isn’t an aspiration right now, increasing daylight with see to that anyway, so if a setup that brings in snow from sliders under wedges transpires, then that will do fine - and if it is a bit marginal, again, we can’t really be choosers.  A concern is how far south might be in the game, but with a bit of luck, some of us might see some snow before February is out.  

[Spah1]

 MJB Confidence increases into the middle of Feb

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

In the medium term, yes; in the longer term, no. But then it never does, that far out.

I think some need to use some common sense, if there is significant uncertainty for the period around 8th this will have a knock on effect further on. While models might be generally showing the same thing after the period of high uncertainty it might be read totally wrong. 

[chris55]

 Paul I think the new system with the update works extremely well!

Keeps the thread nice and clean, but with the update we can see the majority of quoted posts really easily.

[AO-]

 Lukesluckybunch Synoptically it is an improvement though. The deepening of the shortwave isn't really happening as was the case in the 06. But still a long way to go and the EPS isn't great on the mid term either. 

[joggs]

 CoventryWeather probably stay north this time(our luck)seen as they went south in the last cold spell.....lol

We'd all like to think they'll get modelled south.

[chris55]

 Kasim Awan the main cold push actually made it over the entire country, and into northern France.

 

It was the shortwave that gave Manchester that snow event that squeezed out the approaching Atlantic front southwards and subsequently gave the potential snow event to Northern France instead of the southern half of the U.K.

No Iberian high that I can see influencing things?

 

The Iberian high had minimal influence IMO.

[JimBob]

Looks promising for the North moving forward, less so for the midlands and south, double digits temps for the foreseeable. 

[That ECM]

 Daniel* I would agree on most occasions however if we have lows tracking across but path is unsure due to wedges then that causes uncertainty. If then the signal is for a high to build irrespective of the exact path of the low then you can have more certainty beyond the shorter term uncertainty.

Edited January 31 by That ECM

[MJB]

 Daniel* I think some need to use some common sense, if there is significant uncertainty for the period around 8th this will have a knock on effect further on

That might well be the case BUT, i think the uncertainty on the video is about the timing of phase 8 ( MJO ) thereafter it's where a block will set up as per the video. It seems confident the MJO 8 is en route IMO

[MJB]

ECM 168

UK 168

GFS 168

[Mike Poole]

ECM linking through Greenland to the Arctic high - be interesting to see where this one goes, possibly stronger wedge to come here, T168:

[MJB]

A similar pattern to this mornings effort 

[Kasim Awan]

 chris55 Look at the uppers into Spain / France. If the Iberian high was further South the cold spell would have been more severe.