Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Cambrian]

The plainer direction of travel is more clearly shown around day 8. Now that’s a great winter setup. 

0z EPS for 11th February at day 8 - low heights through the UK and Ireland, 531 dam the highest through the far southwest of Ireland. An elongated low pressure running north-south from Scandinavia to northern Italy, cyclonic northerly flow for the UK and Ireland. Thicknesses would be obligingly low. Hints of scope for the development of features around Iceland to run down in the flow.

 

T850’s of -4 to -7 throughout the UK and Ireland on the ensemble mean, an exceptional mean. Atlantic jet stream fragmented and tracking well to the south, on mean, control and op (the mean shown here). 

 

The setup looks to have around 3 days in it in its purest form before the Atlantic looks like it might want to have a go, which again could get very interesting. 

Cyclonic, unstable northerly flow, and cold. It might have its detractors for this and for that (uppers too marginal, only back-edge in the south etc.) but if we get anything close to what is being represented here in the mean, that’s one of the best setups we’re going to see for general snow chances any time between now and next December, so we should feel entitled to thoroughly enjoy its manifestation (or not!) over the next week. Have a great day. 

[Harsh Climate]

 nick sussex

Far two early to right off 'chase 1' mate, still a big chance of a dumping somewhere in UK on Thursday! Also if thar place is Northern England or further south, that would also gives chance of back edge snow even further south as it clears late thursday/ Friday. With also the chance of snow showers coming in from a resulting NE flow on wrap around (although may be short lived.)

A long way from being resolved, round 1 chance of Heavy snow.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters are back after going AWOL last night.  Only 1 cluster out to T168, so no light to be shed on the potential for snow in the next week, and to be honest the op runs will be a better guide to that anyway.  T192-T240:

Cluster 2 looks cold for the UK, with the trough extending way south and a wedge of heights to the NW providing a northerly flow.  Cluster 1 has stronger heights to the NW but more distant, and the trough is less pronounced, but still a cold evolution.

T264+:

There is a lot going on here.  One thing that strikes me is the amount of red borders (Scandi block).  This highlights the possibility of drawing in an easterly or northeasterly.  Cluster 3 shows this well - evolves a very well placed block.  Cluster 2 could be good too with some tweaks.  Cluster 1 heads the block up to Greenland, again slight tweak needed to align with the UK.  Cluster 4 has a much weaker attempt at blocking that largely fails to take hold.

Plenty of cold options in the mix in the extended timeframe.

[nick sussex]

 Harsh Climate

You’d need a shallower low further south. 

Apart from the GFS op the rest really aren’t interested .

Things have gone backwards since yesterday evening . There is still time for some revision in the low but this mornings trend is going in the wrong direction .

[Harsh Climate]

 nick sussex

I still think it's too early to be coming to a conclusion in that regard. If Ecm and Ukmo are still the same this time tomorrow maybe so, not now though.

[offerman]

 jules216 good obersavations there jules about SW russian airmass. 
 

We do need some good deep cold to tap in to.

if LP can stick around and in the correct trajectory then this could help sustain a small easterly NE  flow for short topography lockin of cold . Any further cold would be short live as most likely transitionary snow before Atlantic takes control. 
 

[nick sussex]

 Harsh Climate

I admire your optimism . 

Lets hope for changes with the Euros . 

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

There is a lot going on here.  One thing that strikes me is the amount of red borders (Scandi block).  This highlights the possibility of drawing in an easterly or northeasterly.  Cluster 3 shows this well - evolves a very well placed block.  Cluster 2 could be good too with some tweaks.  Cluster 1 heads the block up to Greenland, again slight tweak needed to align with the UK

That’s where my interest is. I’m with nick, I think the first chase is not going to happen for the vast majority.

[nick sussex]

 That ECM

Its frustrating as once again the outputs have generally ended up with the worst outcome .

After that we’re left chasing another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow .

Theres a lot of volatility in the later output highlighted by the difference between today’s ECM and last nights .

Something seems to be brewing to the ne . Let’s hope it doesn’t end up a stale bitter cup of tea ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

 nick sussex

Eps slowly coming to the party for late Feb.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM a step back in regards to snow in the south but charts still not sure of low pressure tracking best option fax when in the more reliable range.Not worth looking at anything past 144/168hrs.

[nick sussex]

 feb1991blizzard

There looks to be a rapid drop in zonal winds as we head towards the middle of the month and a chance of a major SSW.

So we could still salvage something . How much fun can we squeeze into the last two weeks of February?

[jules216]

 offerman yes, this tíme of year is all about maximalising depth of cold. Its not december anymore and anything around or after 20.02 requires expectional synoptics to deliver = deep troughing from east. These Atlantic undercuts will be useless unless you desire cold rain or 12h wet Snow muck. Its sometimes hard to accept reality and that IS why there are  often unrealistic comments here. Ultimately by the end of the season you Can take the whole budget and see if these so called optimistic runs delivered anything. They probably didnt and I am finding no output in there that would deliver anything appart from Scandinavia or very high ground in Európe. You might as Well this tíme of the year chase high pressure and mild sun, it would be múch more pleasant then half hearted attempt resulting in 5°C muck.

[kumquat]

lets....not ...forget...the...snow...cut...off...date....

[carinthian]

 nick sussex A real tricky forecast for the UK to predict from Mid-week on wards for the British Isles based on the current model outputs. The problem lies along the boundary of the developing cold up north and the stubborn mild flow over much of Europe. Whether the cold takes over for most really depends on the interaction of the low shown to move into the British Isles and that is still not decided looking at this mornings model runs. Over here the mildest weekend of the winter so far imminently due. The forecasting agency snow model outer parameters has a big up turn in snowfall from 14th Feb over Central Europe shown on latest results. However, it has to be noted a big spike up take for snow across Northern England on 8th onwards and yes later in Southern England around 10th with a possible heavy snowfall on the cards. However, as always difficult location for you guys but potentially could be on the cusp of some welcome snowfall across Blighty if the cold air advects without hindrance? Good Luck yet again. This time ...?

C

[MJB]

 nick sussex Too far out to write off anything at 168 IMO

[nick sussex]

 MJB

I’m not writing it off but the trend this morning so far apart from the GFS hasn’t been good re the low .

Still time for changes . Let’s hope the Euros u-turn .

[AO-]

 Mike Poole 

Good morning,

Despite the chances of a Scandiblock increasing, I get the impression that there is no significant cold in store. When taking the EPS again, there seems to be a lot of certainty (little scatter), but at best the conditions are just below seasonal for the week after next week. I'm not sure why this is, but that is remarkable given the cold up North. Of course a lot can change when it gets nearer in future, but there are not a lot members going for a very cold Easterly or Northeasterly like the GFS00, which was splendid btw. 

The wind probability shows a large amount of members going for a wind direction between north and east for the week after next week. About 40%

Edited February 3 by AO-

[bluearmy]

 Mike Poole are the red borders always scandi blocks Mike ??

[bluearmy]

If gfs op dropped the fascination with snowfall from attempt one then we’d be a lot less excited in here. We should learn from experience that gfs op is not the model you want in your back pocket when it’s fairly isolated. 
 

we can wait till Mondays 00z runs to draw the curtains on attempt one south of the M62 

the cold flow to follow is uncertain re depth of cold and instability 

then we look to hemispheric pattern changes and if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky 

Very unlucky as we seemed to have ticked many boxes along with the much touted back loaded winter, to end up without a single snowflake IMBY really tough luck 

[CoventryWeather]

ICON had the slightest of movements towards the GFS in it's early stages but ends with this chart at 120..

[NewEra21]

Looking at the models this morning I really can’t see much of interest, the GFS op is the only real promising run and that itself is very much on the colder side against the mean.

Hopefully somewhere see’s a dumping late next week, outside of that I don’t see anything of note. Looking at mid month onwards now.

[Anthony Burden]

Fax chart at 120hrs shows the Atlantic low track south of UK would be nice if it kept that progression into the continent.

[bluearmy]

 Anthony Burden based on yesterdays 12z run and we know that took it ne across the country by day 6/7.  To this point, ec op has been the most consistent model on this low (which is a shame)