Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

We may save the day at day 10..due to that wedge around iceland!

[MJB]

" Things could turn a little bit wintry later in the week "

BEEB 10:30

 

[Kasim Awan]

 LukesluckybunchAt face value nothing good about day 10 west based -NAO and strong Iberian high. 

Edited February 3 by Kasim Awan

[jellybaby1969]

 jules216

More likely to get cold and snow in late February than December ! All these posts saying last chance.... clock is ticking etc. in fact more likely to get snow early march than early December !

[Ali1977]

 Kasim Awan it’s not west based, it’s just forming in the Atlantic 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Nothing good about day 10 west based -NAO and strong Iberian high.

Give it time..winds about to switch too the north!or will it just ride over the top..could do without that Euro high!

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[edinburgh_1992]

 Ice Day Stunning charts from GFS06 for central belt of scotland... although as always i'm sure we'll end up missing out, or Edinburgh will have sleety rain. 

Was hoping for a bit more of an easterly, maybe if the low shifts south we might end up pulling in colder air from the east with north sea snow showers for us in scotland. 

[blizzard81]

 MJB Auntie beeb a bit behind the curve there. 

[Kasim Awan]

 Ali1977 Yeah it improved the issue with the setup shown is it wouldn't take much to push the low North and keep the colder air North of the UK before pushing in moderated cold air on a mostly dry flow. This is a real possibility.

[Met4Cast]

23 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The lack of any real sustained blocking appearing on NWP modelling is a concern for me re: longevity of any potential colder patterns, we don't really want to be relying on nothing more than a Scandi trough.

Just to extract this part of my post from yesterday, the GEFS 00z ensembles are certainly more aligned with this than anything prolonged or sustained.

A lot of spread in the extended but evidence of a relatively quick return to less cold conditions following a brief cold spell. Timing re: the surge of AAM momentum and the MJO isn't particularly well aligned. We're seeing AAM tendency falling now and with the MJO delayed through phase 7 it seems unlikely the tropics & sub tropics will align in a way that's favourable to sustained blocking. 

We might see some snowfall out of this, but I really cannot see this colder spell being anything notable.

[Sweatyman]

 blizzard81 As always

[blizzard81]

 Met4Cast Yep, I totally agree. Any 'real' potential has been watered down now for the last 24 hours. Unfortunately that trend has continued this morning. 

[Ice Day]

So this is the NH profile this morning and at 240 on the ECM - we go from a pretty dominant PV to a far more chaotic picture.

 

T240 on the 6x GFS and GEM also show a disorganised PV. 

 

Something to keep an eye on in the coming days as hopefully, this will be a precurser to some HLB.  

[Kasim Awan]

These sorts of patterns produce snow to northern hills then sleety showers elsewhere, then a brief high with cold before a return to westerly conditions.

It would take a fair bit of shuffling now to really increase snow chances away from the North and I question how likely this is given the recent trend for a bigger low.

[Chesil View]

 jellybaby1969 indeed so.

Deepest most disruptive snow of my lifetime down here in Dorset occurred in the second half Feb.

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Auntie beeb a bit behind the curve there. 

Not really 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 Kasim Awan I don’t know what you are looking at re west based NAO?

 

BFTP

[jules216]

 jellybaby1969 what is the longevity of Snow cover in Late February from your experience if you take away the 2018? Lets say part 20 years? I Can name lots of winters with Snow cover lasting in december here but Late February is always a few day event, only exeption being 2018,2006 or 2005. But I Can name nearly every other year in december where Snow cover gets preserved with either Inversion,short sun, etc. But Late February needs sustained very cold t850hPa while december doesnt. Maybe in UK you have different climate then here in Slovakia and late February Snow just doesnt melt quickly under stronger/longer sunshine. Or maybe you desire just seing snowfall while I on other hand value quality - longevity of Snow cover and usability - skying etc.

[LRD]

This 6z frame (in FI, I know) is almost identical to last night's EC46 pressure anomaly charts for that week. Pretty cold, I'd imagine. But uneventful

[joggs]

Yes,the trend is not our friend this morning. Stubborn Iberian heights make the low go further north.

It's been a tale all winter imo.

Hopefully later Feb will produce.

If it can go wrong,it generally does.

Back in a few days.

[Kasim Awan]

 BLAST FROM THE PAST Just this frame.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Here we go with the classic easterly on the good ol gf s 6z...you gotta laugh really!

[Kasim Awan]

 Lukesluckybunch No easterly on the 06Z yet.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

No easterly on the 06Z yet.

Not yet..but that's my prediction!

[doctormog]

Another rather cold run for northern parts. A strong trend from midweek now.