Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[LRD]

 Mike Poole Must admit I've always seen the red frames as just general blocks - either mid-latitude (inc a UK -based high pressure cell) or higher. I've seen lots of cluster forecasts down the years going for red... and a scandi block ends up being miles away from forming

But if that's what the descriptions say, then, fair enough!

[MJB]

Back edge snow from the control

[E17boy]

Getting mixed feeling on here again this morning is it all going to go bust or is winter coming. The questions of our whole season so far. 

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Here we go with the classic easterly on the good ol gf s 6z...you gotta laugh really!

Say no more LOL 

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No easterly on the 06Z yet.

More of a northeasterly!struggling too undercut

[jules216]

 jellybaby1969 like example I present Meteogram on 6Z GFS for Leeds in central UK. How much colder T850hPa you need to be under to achieve even 24hr of snow on the ground? This one has interval of +5/+2 and you need like ať least +1/-4 interval even at +1 and cold sunshine you will see crazy snowmelt as the ground is not Frozen to 20cm depth like here. Your base needs to be at least 24h under -5°C othewise its just going to turn in to muck. The example is 2018 strong easterlies -16 uppers. Now what are the lowest ensembles,maybe -8 and maybe for 2 days if lucky? Or is IT sufficient for you just to see a few flakes Falling?

Edited February 3 by jules216

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Say no more LOL 

Yea cos they never get it wrong!haha

[Kentspur]

Beautiful 6z for Eastern and SE England extending to the Midlands we finally get the infamous Sausage high! 

Edited February 3 by Kentspur

[CoventryWeather]

@Kasim AwanI'm a bit confused to be honest with you, this upcoming period hasn't been the main period of interest. Might be a few sliding lows producing snowfall on the northern edge but main interest is past mid month, where there is pretty significant support for an Easterly with a block between Scandi and Greenland. No real support for any significant heights over Iberia so not sure what you're looking at. 

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yea cos they never get it wrong!haha

This time ...................just this once, you'll see  

[Mike Poole]

 LRD Yes, bear in mind the regimes are for the Euro-Atlantic region, which the UK is towards the east of.  So the red would include a mid latitude UK high as well as a high centred over Scandinavia regardless of what the description says, and indeed, in summer, the desirable (for most) charts are those with a red border.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Nice mean at 192..less of Azores high..influence!

[Kasim Awan]

 CoventryWeather I suggest looking back over the output. Definite support for strong Iberian heights. 

Edited February 3 by Kasim Awan

[Anthony Burden]

GFS going for the full Monty.

[Kasim Awan]

 Anthony Burden At 300 hours.. means nothing at all really.

[Mike Poole]

 Met4Cast I see what you are saying, but I do think sometimes the teleconnections view is always on to the ‘next thing’, before the current thing has had a chance to play out, the lagged response to which is what the models are currently struggling with out in FI.  It has not yet been resolved as to what the local UK impact of this might be.  

Too early IMHO to call this a bust.  (And there is still a possible SSW around the 16th which may further complicate things.)

[blizzard81]

My definition of a downgrade - looking at a gfs 06z op at 300 hours. 

[frosty ground]

 Kasim Awan

yeah super strong and stubborn 

[CoventryWeather]

 Kasim Awan still leads to a cold outlook in the extended though? 

Anyways I'm not going to cause any arguments but to my view mid month there's likely to be excess blocking to the north. Perhaps still heights to the south but most likely weak.

To me they don't suggest strong heights - strong represents 1030/1035 to me, similar to this week. Centre over the bay of Biscay. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

I'm liking this guys...really am..the control now looking very interesting at day 9 after the initial cold..also with the improved mean!

[LRD]

 Mike Poole Thanks Mike. That's a helpful clarification

Meanwhile GFS 6z goes very cold for the south... in far, far away FI

Edited February 3 by LRD

[Chesil View]

Interesting gfs 06z. The possible snowy (for some) outcomes next week are as Singularity posted earlier the transional element of a change to colder blocked conditions  for second half of Feb and the 06z charts this progression  well and sits well with the EC 46 which has been pretty solid on such transition for some time.  Local will it snow in my backyard type detail irrelevant at that range. 

Edited February 3 by Chesil View

[Anthony Burden]

 Kasim Awan Yes nothing positive but a trend all the same forecasting above 120/144 hrs is are limit for accuracy.

[Harsh Climate]

 CoventryWeather

The infamous Iberian high is migrating way south from next week, if this goes belly up it's nothing to do with the Iberian high..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 Kasim Awan just a frame.  You can’t call a west based -ve NAO on 12 hours….

 

BFTP

Edited February 3 by BLAST FROM THE PAST