Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[winterof79]

 Lukesluckybunch

JFF

[Lukesluckybunch]

Awaiting the ec ens..72-96h see where it takes it

[SLEETY]

gfs op top of the spread again lots of cold options in there.Why are  some people just using the op and ignoring the other runs in there,even the MET OFFICE use all the ensemble runs to make their judgements,but not in here.That figures then

[TillyS]

So the GEFS ensembles certainly have the operational on the milder side. 

 

But notice that the mean at no point drops below the -5C 850hPa which is usually the magic line for snow, especially in a marginal boundary set up. Not even in Northamptonshire:

 

 

 

[SLEETY]

 TillyS so your going with the op run and ignoring the many colder runs from the gfs,that makes sense,and ignoring the other models that have the low much further South,that also makes sense

[winterof79]

 SLEETY Yes and now quoting the position of the high at day 10 on ECM.

Lets enjoy a shot at heavy snow later this week and take it from there.

[CoventryWeather]

Key thing now is to look at short range modelling now - such as the UKV or the Arome. 

Also look at there ensembles, the Arpege ensembles very clear on Thursday Low impacting the midlands but perhaps a small chance further south or north. (18z however)

Link here for them if people want to have a look for themselves. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/pe-arpege.php?ech=3&mode=45&map=0&code=9

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose de manière régulière les différents scénarios du modèle français ARPEGE 0.1° (10km) de Météo-France sur la France, la Belgique, le..

Edited February 5 by CoventryWeather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So my take on it.  ECM and UKMO more on the money (and quite a few GFS ensemble runs).  Snow moving S S/E after striking Midlands, Mid Wales Notrth etc as the LP slides into Low Countries.  Cold HP to move over the UK from West (cold nights particularly).  Then I’m ‘really’ keeping my eye on the developments after that….potentially where even more wintry set up develops.  Lots to watch and wait for…but I’m with the UKMO and ECM direction with the shift S of the LP after it hits our shores.

 

BFTP

Edited February 5 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[JamesL]

So with low pressures historically moving south over time, what are people’s thoughts here? 
A slightly different scenario to last time as cold arctic air isn’t entrenched over the uk as we saw the snow slip into France etc 

Any chance here or am I straw clutching?

 

[AltonMatthew]

I don't share the enthusiasm for the short term. Talks of snow dumps are over exaggerated as the model runs show a snow to rain event which is actually likely to be just a rain event. 

 

After this week... fluidity remains.

[GokouD]

 winterof79 I think I'll only start getting excited by charts like this when they filter down to the weather apps. BBC currently has me in 5C and heavy rain all day Thursday, despite being in the 10cm zone on that chart. I know they use old data etc, but I'm yet to see a single actual forcast of snow in my location, which is usually a good sign it's not happening. Happy to be wrong though!

[That ECM]

Quite a difference in the means. 

[Nick F]

 TillyS You do like to bang the mild drum! Backing the mildest model run every time, regardless of where it sits in the ensembles. It won't always work.

The 00z EPS average supports high pressure to build after the coming weekend, not a return to Atlantic and mild southwesterlies that the op shows.

Looking dry and not particularly conducive for snow though. We may have to look beyond mid-month for better prospects, the extended ensembles have favoured the high migrating to Iceland and then Greenland with time.

Edited February 5 by Nick F

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm nearly has a easterly as a mean at day 10!

[IDO]

The EC mean is close enough to the op in synoptic:

 A potential "event" later this week to break the monotony, but anything blocked still remains later in Feb assuming nothing interferes with that signal. 

 

 

[Drifter]

The disappointing downgrades (from the northern blocking nirvana charts) continue this morning. 

The usual suspects up north should get some snow, but for us in the south the odds are shortening on a largely snowless winter once again (probably get some in March though). 

 

[markw2680]

Although a different set up to the January one where a disruptive band was supposed to cross central areas and ended up in France where we just got the cold dry rubbish. I can’t see the same thing happening here but it’s still a concern after this strange winter we have had so far.

id take a snow day even if it turns milder after as I’m sure many in here would too.

lets see how this plays out over the next day or 2

[Lukesluckybunch]

What time is the arpege 6z?

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[sheikhy]

 Lukesluckybunch around 10.15 10.30!!!!

[nick sussex]

This low is really dragging out the drama .

Last nights UKMO is still supported today by that model .

Interestingly last nights fax charts for days 4 and 5 were modified away from the raw data so clearly at that point they thought it was an outlier solution .

Todays ECM has trended south . The GFS has gone in a different direction with a woeful run .

We really need to see that start backtracking on the 06 hrs run given the timeframes involved .

 

 

 

[MJB]

'

A few options on the table, blocking looks the form horse as we move to mid month 

[Scandinavian High.]

 TillyS and most probably be very different next run .

[SLEETY]

 nick sussex what's makes you think gfs is correct anyway, top of the ensemble runs other models have the low further south etc. 

 

Too much obsession with gfs in here. 

[nick sussex]

 SLEETY

I never said it was correct but you need that onside .

So it needs to start backtracking .

[AO-]

 Lukesluckybunch

Well, keeping in mind that it is still not sure where to find snow(fall), and given the fact that from Thursday onwards temps at 850 drop below -5 and dewpoints are negative, there could be a good possibility of a snowcover over a great part of Britain  except the South. But it is a tricky situation. With hp over Britain afterwards it could be jackpot.