Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

im not either mate!!!i did say gfs shall be more closer to the mark!!we had a similar situation earlier in the winter and gfs won it handsdown!!!something aint quite right with the ecm in the last few months!!!!

Remember it's the ukmo and ecm v gfs..but it wasn't exactly set in stone anyway ..so it wouldn't take much to ruin everything...it's all very marginal

[bluearmy]

 sheikhy gfs was poor with the n france system last month ?  They all have their wins and losses. I’d still say within 5 days that ec will be closer than gfs - most of the time! 
the  best AI models are  sending the low ne so this may turn out to be gfs’ moment in the sun 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

All I'm forecast is heavy rain here  in North Wales

Oh really ian...well it is finely balanced at moment..could change of course!for example the met now showing heavy snow Nottingham thursday.

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[carinthian]

The latest ECM run (06T ) has the snow zone across North Midlands and North Wales o Friday  with some accumulations especially above 200m. The front likely to break up over the weekend as the lowest pressure transfers into France and produce a NEly flow for a time across The British Isles. 

C

Edited February 5 by carinthian

[Kentspur]

Looking at a location inside the Met warning area- Kidderminster near Birmingham you can see the difference with precipitation between ECM 0z &GFS 6z amounts, but also the GFS ensembles show a complete lack of snow unfortunately on Thursday this doesn't show ECM snow risk on Wetterzentrale 

Edited February 5 by Kentspur

[Jacob]

P16 ECM anyone? 

[Catacol]

Been suffering from Covid the last week and it drove me away from screens and brain activity. Sheesh - talk about brain fog. Nightmare.

Feeling a bit better, and better again for what may lie ahead. No need to go over the crash from 22nd Jan, the disappointment of the final stages of January and the prognosis at one stage that suggested February could flatten out. But but but - we always knew a crescendo of drivers supporting a more blocked/cold pattern for our part of the world were on their way as we left January and that - with a degree of uncertainty on lag - there was a good chance February could deliver. 

A few core pointers.

AAM tendency has been positive for a good while now, and this leads to:

= a good high level of GLAAM, ready once again to support the right kind of blocking.

This leads to a positive picture of the current GWO orbit:

We are in the Nino 5-8 range  which represents wind flows conducive to the North Atlantic blocking snow hunters crave. 

All this is good. What about the issues around the strat, which about a week ago looked like it might spoil the party?

What a change that is in the space of a week. We have a significant slowdown imminent - maybe even a second bite at a significant SSW - and a context from top down that has swung back in dramatic style to provide a blocking opportunity once again. 

Where does the EPS see this heading? We are on track for substantial height rises to the north, and likely north west, as we head into school half term week.

Whether we can get some more late season joy out of this remains to be seen - if the strat continues to be modelled as under ongoing stress then who knows. I hesitate to mention 2018 because I dont think we got the precursors to cause that kind of SSW this time around, but I certainly wouldnt be surprised to see a cold and blocked March given how things sit right now. Given the declining nature of the vortex by then, a GH embedded in late February in a high GWO orbit background looks likely to me to stick around.

 

Edited February 5 by Catacol

[Catacol]

Meanwhile - will it snow later this week? GFS says no but the MetO seem pretty bullish (a snow warning 3 days out??) and the ECM says yes. The macro provides no answer here - will the trough elongate and slide through? Marginal, potential high reward. 

[Dennis]

Holy-AO 5-2

[winterof79]

 LukesluckybunchThankfully the MET have much more at their disposal.

Wonder what NAO discussions think of GFS #Nick sussex

 LukesluckybunchThankfully the MET have much more at their disposal.

Wonder what NAO discussions think of GFS #Nick sussex

[BarnetBlizzard]

Low and colder uppers slightly (and I mean slightly) further south on the ECM mean 6z compared to 0z at 72hours.

Edited February 5 by BarnetBlizzard

[bluearmy]

 BarnetBlizzard just been looking through the stamps 

only 2 members manage to have a system which keeps 0z isotherm as far south as the M4 by late Thursday 

Southern contingent fighting a losing battle on attempt one 

there are more chances for the south later in the weekend 

meanwhile, the midlanders with a little altitude (like the west mids) are dreaming 

And those  between Northumberland and the north midlands are scared to dream because of what may actually be on the table for them 

fwiw, I reckon an altitude event in the main but probably not too much elevation required 

[BarnetBlizzard]

 bluearmy Agreed - I think the chance of a snow event for the South Thurs-Sat is close to 0 now unfortunately. I just want the low to move East/South east of the UK rather than stay to further West/North West as per GFS. It'll help snow/cold chances moving forwards IMO

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

 bluearmy Agreed - I think the chance of a snow event for the South Thurs-Sat is close to 0 now unfortunately. I just want the low to move East/South east of the UK rather than stay to further West/North West as per GFS. It'll help snow/cold chances moving forwards IMO

I sort of agree...hopefully we get a decent movement east and South with the trough..and the wrap around for the weekend..brings us colder air in!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 northwestsnow they won’t be conclusive no matter how ‘improved’ or worse they look

 

BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

50 mile shift  South on the icon compared to the 06z

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON going with north Wales northern England covering Thursday! Quite a lot of snow 5-10CM widely!

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[IDO]

ICON a bit further south versus 06z:

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

ICON a bit further south versus 06z:

Nice work IDO! really hoping it comes South again

[MattStoke]

 Lukesluckybunch And the North Midlands 

[CoventryWeather]

 Battleground Snow And that'll continue in the coming days. Much better. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And the North Midlands

 

Absolutely...northern England taking a bit of a battering..easily 10cm.showing.the low seems to be stallling..need it too move on now at 105

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[CoventryWeather]

Considering snow accumulation charts are rather poor, wouldn't be surprised to see double that quite widely. Precipitation looks heavy enough as the airmass' clash, could be very heavy at times. 

Also the GFS will most likely start moving south this evening. 

Edited February 5 by CoventryWeather

[frosty ground]

 Lukesluckybunch no one live in northern England to be fair 

[IDO]

Sadly, the ICON has moved a step towards the GFS with a bloated LP system rather than an undercutting low(s); 12z -v- 06z

Meaning (12z v 06z):