Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[frosty ground]

 CoventryWeather

I generally find these charts over do the amount of settled snow for the most part.

[Mcconnor8]

 IDO

Stark difference compared to the 0z run and not in a good way.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Best bet here is for wedges over scandi..looking a bit gfs tbh...trying to set up easterly at day 6!it could be worse,just a lack of real cold air

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[frosty ground]

 IDO it’s how far east core of that core can get. I think we can forget about southerly corrections and look more now at the shape and orientation of the low, further east would keep the could uppers in the north.

[CoventryWeather]

 frosty ground very dependent on the model. UKV and icon tend to underestimate I have found, although everyone has different interpretations for this. The ECM generally over estimates..

[frosty ground]

 

as you can see, as the core of the low moves east the cold uppers come back south. Not really like the GFS at all 

[IDO]

 frosty ground

I agree; the GFS is further west at the same time period, so it is a combination of shape, timing and placement of the core low, as you implied. Being further west the GFS (06z) is even worse.

The ICON keeps the north on the cold side so hills may keep snow cover; D6

[nick sussex]

A poor start to the evening with the ICON following the misery model.

It would be tragic if the ECM and UKMO were both wrong at day 4.  Either of those solutions would be okay compared to the last two GFS runs .

We’ll know in the next few hours whether to call time on this winter as the GFS solution would be a very poor marker moving forward .

 

Edited February 5 by nick sussex

[Mcconnor8]

Arpege 12z is a touch further North than the 6z run with the cold uppers, however it does still show snow/sleet on the precipitation charts.

[IDO]

ICON close to GFS at D7:

edit: versus EC:

Edited February 5 by IDO

[frosty ground]

For those that wish to analyse what the outputs show the icon becomes very messy, not like the GFS in reality.

surface high over scandi with low heights over the U.K. and some seasonal chilly if not wintry weather.

 

[Battleground Snow]

 Mcconnor8

Looks like we are honing in on the final solution with the north midlands being in the prime spot.

Maybe take the ecm/ukmo/arpege blend at 72 hours

[andy989]

IMBY hoping for no further corrections south for Thursday as I’m now under 20cm yellow warning from the met office. They must be pretty confident to issue a snow warning this far out 

[Mcconnor8]

 andy989 Would have thought corrections North would be worse for you than South as airmass will become too mild.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON close to GFS at D7:

Possible snow in the east...cold air hanging on over eastern areas!

[Jackski4]

 andy989 From your perspective northwards, 100 miles south would be just fine indeed just so we can guarantee it’s all snow 

[frosty ground]

GFS

ICON

as you can see the ICON with its colder uppers and surface high is slowing and even disrupting the Atlantic, wouldn’t be surprised if the Atlantic at the least cut across the U.K. giving maybe another major snow even in the process.

not like the GFS at all in reality .

[Daniel*]

Temperature anomalies from the latest GloSea forecasts for the week commencing 12 February. It shows cold air over the UK and deep cold residing over Scandinavia. GloSea is the seasonal prediction system developed and run operationally at the Met Office.

This is from the Met Office blog:
“ Through to early March, there is increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the north and east of the UK with greater than normal potential for disruptive snow. The specific locations wintry hazards will become clearer as the lead time decreases.”

Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

Edited February 5 by Daniel*

[IDO]

 

The Met weekly update suggests high confidence in the EC and UKMO for the cold to sink south over the weekend, pushing down to the far south as the low sinks rather than blowing up over the UK!

That is certainly a good sign with the Met onboard for a non-GFS/GEM solution.

[CoventryWeather]

May mean nothing but GFS is slightly further south at 48hrs.

Edited February 5 by CoventryWeather

[Eskimo]

+60h GFS ever so slightly further south and tilting the right way. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs correcting south

[Rayth]

 Daniel* Interesting that they are seeing signs of cold and 'disruptive snow' in early march too , long lead time to mention it 

 

Through to early March, there is increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the north and east of the UK with greater than normal potential for disruptive snow. The specific locations wintry hazards will become clearer as the lead time decreases.

[frosty ground]

at 60 hours is the Atlantic low breaking into small pieces? Actual disruption?

[Mcconnor8]

Quite a sizeable shift South from 12z GFS