Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Cloud 10]

 Tim Bland

 

The models seem very reluctant to clear the troughing East and we end up with a Nick Sussex

"shortwave frenzy"

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB Not anymore with ECM joining it.

[MJB]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Temperature anomalies from the latest GloSea forecasts for the week commencing 12 February. It shows cold air over the UK and deep cold residing over Scandinavia. GloSea is the seasonal prediction system developed and run operationally at the Met Office.

This is from the Met Office blog:
“ Through to early March, there is increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the north and east of the UK with greater than normal potential for disruptive snow. The specific locations wintry hazards will become clearer as the lead time decreases.”

 

Also remember this  

 

 

Edited February 5 by MJB

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The way your going on, you think it was showing high pressure at 96 hours to be replaced by low pressure. The reality is it's only a variation on how the low behaves and now both models are going with the GFS showing the more "bowling ball low" instead of the slider set up.

Whilst what we are seeing now looks the most likely solution, there is still time for the minor details to change. 

But it's big changes at such short timeframes..from apparently the best performing models..and the changes are for the worse!

[nick sussex]

 Geordiesnow

To have both the ECM and UKMO wrong at T96 hrs is extremely rare .

There was much trashing of the GFS this morning but it’s still a major global model . 

The first clue to the debacle was the fax charts . Last night they were heavily modified , this morning at just T84 hrs that was modified away from the raw data . I mentioned at the time this meant the UKMO had low confidence in their model .

And as we’ve seen the UKMO were right to be dubious .

[NewEra21]

GFS has often latched onto things first this winter with the other models slowly coming back round to the GFS. So say what you want about the GFS, but it’s got things overall more correct than not this winter imo.

[MattStoke]

GFS is nothing like its previous runs for this week’s snow risk. Bemusing to see such praise when it’s moved completely to the other models on that.
 

[Lukesluckybunch]

At day 7 we gone from a freezing cold easterly..to a wet and mild westerly!

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch only in the UK huh?

 

 

[MJB]

UK 120 ,`144 and 168 .............evolving nicely 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

only in the UK huh?

Exactly blizzard...you was onto something..you can't make it up!

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

At day 7 we gone from a freezing cold easterly..to a wet and mild westerly!

Not on the UK we haven't 

D6

D7

[Drifter]

 MJB   Not really - all the cold air has been sent back to Lapland. 

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB That is a huge downgrade on the 0z run, no real cold air there at all.

[MJB]

Just now, Drifter said:

Not really - all the cold air has been sent back to Lapland. 

Yes really  

Then you are being totally unrealistic with your expectations then 

[blizzard81]

You've got to laugh or you'll cry...... Iberian high building now

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

That is a huge downgrade on the 0z run, no real cold air there at all.

Hasn't happened yet and UK is showing cold air over us this weekend 

[Drifter]

 MJB what on earth? 

The low is heading north, not south. All the cold air has vanished by day 7. 

Come on man!

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB -8 uppers and below are cold air and that isn't present on the UKMO, GFS and ECM have higher uppers than the UKMO as well.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm is dreadful...we will be back too the good old saying..day 10 looks alright though!

[MJB]

 Drifter

That's right it's vanished

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not on the UK we haven't

True marcus

[MJB]

 Mcconnor8 You don't need to have -8  air to produce snow as you well know 

[CoventryWeather]

I still don't think models have this. Such a wild swing in solutions today. Perhaps suggestions that models moving towards a middle ground solution. 

Honestly hoping for a southwards shift in the modelling overnight. What a grim month were heading towards if these runs verified. 

[Polar Maritime]

It's going to be a long 2 days... Nothing  is correct ATM.  Computer nor human what with so much uncertainty.

Very interesting.

Edited February 5 by Polar Maritime