Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Mcconnor8]

 bluearmy T48 are what most people are interested in now haha, it does make a difference for the snow divide on Thursday

[Drifter]

I’m really not understanding the excitement over this brief spell of wet snow followed by a quick thaw?

We just need to hope the low moves away easy quickly and that not too much of the euro cold pool is blown away. 

[The Bevmeister]

 Drifter With you on that.  But it’s been so lean for anything interesting this winter, everyone’s grasping at straws

 

[Ali1977]

 Drifter I think that earlier Arpege kept us in the hunt, some deeper snow levels and it stayed colder - can’t see it happening on the 12zs (especially with warnings moving north) but you never know!! 

And the arome 

Edited February 6 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

 Mcconnor8 understood but because the mild air comes in quickly it’s a fairly swift snow to rain for those areas perhaps going to now get some snow to begin with.  I appreciate that it helps in the middle area as it allows a longer snowfall period 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Bit of a slow burner here in ICON ..could end up better though..keeping the cold air over scandi!

[bluearmy]

 Lukesluckybunch this is the trick in the event that we build a surface ridge to our ne 

[Battleground Snow]

 Ali1977 12z arpege

London may even seen some falls before it turns to rain at this rate

Edit: added icon, note this is falling and not actual.

 

Edited February 6 by Battleground Snow

[Ali1977]

 Battleground Snow awesome - surely we will see a southerly movement now on the others 

 

Actually even further south on the Arpege

Edited February 6 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

London may even seen some falls before it turns to rain at this rate

 

Quite widely 5/6cm

[E17boy]

 Lukesluckybunch London what am I reading this right. London might see the snow you have certainly woken me up. Has it shifted that far south??? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

London what am I reading this right. London might see the snow you have certainly woken me up. Has it shifted that far south??? 

I'm thinking it's more north of m4 event in the aperge..could someone back me up on this?

[bluearmy]

 Lukesluckybunch isn’t Arpege showing all the sleet etc as accumulating snowfall ??

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

isn’t Arpege showing all the sleet etc as accumulating snowfall ??

I really don't know mate...Ali would know more

[snowblind]

 Ali1977 most likely some will move it south and some north and we'll be none the wiser.

[E17boy]

I know border line for the boundary was Birmingham Peterborough north. Will really surprise me if London comes into play which I am doubting very much at the moment. Especially when the app is saying 12 deg here for Thursday . 
 

regards 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs further south at 30h

[Mcconnor8]

 E17boy Yeah pretty sure London won't be in play especially given it is always a degree or 2 warmer than surrounding areas as well.

[Jason M]

Plenty of areas may see some snow fall but its going to be a stretch for much to settle. Different in the north and on high ground.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Midlands event!

Edited February 6 by Lukesluckybunch

[andymusic]

 Lukesluckybunch good portion of Wales too

Edited February 6 by andymusic

[Lampostwatcher]

North of m4 event its looking like 

With accumulated cover Midlands north 🌨❄

[sheikhy]

Massive upgrades for the midlands area now!!!nearly all 12zs i have seen give me 10cms at least!!!will it happen though?!!!!

[bluearmy]

 sheikhy gfs has around 5cms lying 

I’d ignore all the other models unless they specifically state snow depth 

[MKN]

 sheikhy don't forget arome/arpege I believe show snow fall not what will settle. Could be significant differences particularly at lower levels. 2-5cms perhaps tops for the majority. 10-20 over 400m.