Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo 120...quite a bit different,doesn't look good to me!

[WeatherArc]

One of the GFS ensembles last night was something else, is this even possible?

20 degree isotherm into southern France, surface temps there probably in excess of 25, could even get up to 30. 

Madness

[frosty ground]

 Lukesluckybunch what’s up with it?

the 168 chart could hold a surprise or two 

[Mike Poole]

Models at T144:

Interesting differences in terms of the depth of the two upstream lows (marked 1 and 2 on the GFS chart).  GFS has the first low more developed, therefore the WAA ahead of it, GEM the two are more equal so there is some WAA beginning ahead of the second one, and UKMO has the first one practically non-existent, which means the WAA will be further west ahead of the second one (we can check at T168).  I think UKMO solution will suit UK cold prospects best.  

 

[raz.org.rain]

 WeatherArc looks like the same chart from the Twitter thread I was looking at earlier. Very much an outlier with no chance of verifying I'd say, but certainly shocking that it's turning up as a probability at this time of year. There were some similar themes being suggested by outputs yesterday or the day before, there's seemingly an appetite for a warm airmass to be dragged up from the south. The theme of this winter is that the milder runs tend to be closer to what we get, even if they're in the minority, so I'd imagine they're picking up on the potential of a much milder spell going forward. I guess we need to wait and see if this gathers any significant support. Considering this appears to be coinciding with a SSW event, it could perhaps be a suggestion that we'll indeed end up on the "warm side" of the subsequent buckled jet stream. An early spring perhaps?

[Drifter]

Tonight’s runs so far are a bit although UKMO could prove interesting at day 7. 

[WeatherArc]

 raz.org.rain Agreed, no chance of verifying but just have never seen that kind of heat modelled in feb. A few models have been picking up on mild air being pulled northwards, being honest after today ive given up on winter (i would love to be proven wrong though) so ill take some early spring warmth. 

[mountain shadow]

 WeatherArc Yes, the Winter killer permanent Iberian High trumping all that is thrown at it by SSWs, EAMTs, MJOs etc.

[chrisnoy]

At 228 hrs the GFS sends cold westwards into mainland Europe. Misses UK of course.

We meanwhile bathe in very mild SW winds....you couldn't make it up really.

[Ice Day]

The GEM finishes on an interesting note at day 10..... but it is day 10!

The UKMO at 168

Big vortex split 

[Jason M]

 WeatherArc   I reckon were going to see some heat this summer that will leave people shocked. That chart would be decent in July!

[blizzard81]

Interesting developments. Always seems to be the 12z runs. Ukmo and gfs control as examples. They want to raise pressure to our north west at short notice. The EC46, after touting this for what seems an eternity, might yet have it's day after all lol. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

How about raging southwesterlies in the gfs...awful!

[bluearmy]

 Lukesluckybunch not sustained 

[Gowon]

 Lukesluckybunch

I don't think we can trust any models to have the correct solution atm with the amount of differences early on.

[blizzard81]

 Gowon I think that's it in a nutshell. Expect the unexpected. 

[Gowon]

 bluearmy

Yeah it's turned decent:

[Singularity]

That UKM 12z is among the most fascinating runs I've seen simply because it differs so much from the prior consensus from just 5 days lead time. 

The build of high pressure across Scandinavia is just... not there. The polar jet remains on a much flatter trajectory into central Europe and we sort of get around the issue with the lack of trough disruption seen otherwise.

I'm honestly not sure how plausible that pathway is or even how things would then unfold over the following few days. As of +168 hours it seems to be trying to build a high around Iceland but in a seriously messy manner.

[Weather-history]

 WeatherArc

 

Not far off what happened at the end of Feb 1960, 15.6°C was recorded at 7am in London 

[bluearmy]

 Gowon if only there was some cold air ahead of the trough 

[blizzard81]

 Singularity It really is a big change at such short notice. 

[Singularity]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Interesting developments. Always seems to be the 12z runs. Ukmo and gfs control as examples. They want to raise pressure to our north west at short notice

Good spot there with the GFS control. Perhaps a reminder that models, even entire ensembles in terms of the consensus they suggest, are sometimes consistently wrong for days on end.

This has raised interest in what the ECM 12z looks like later. Will it further stir the pot, or leave it to simmer?

[feb1991blizzard]

Not bad - especially considering trop is nothing outrageous either.

[Met4Cast]

Bank! 

If it’s not going to be overly cold we may as well get some early warmth in across the UK instead! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

15 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Yeah it's turned decent:

You think that's decent chart?