Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[nick sussex]

 Severe Siberian icy blast

It’s been very strange .  I don’t remember a winter like it.  It’s been even the shorter timeframe charts imploding . 

Highlighted by the ECM and UKMO debacle . 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Correct me if I'm wrong..but the ecm mean indicates a uk hp at best?no sign of anything very cold!

[Met4Cast]

The ECM det was in cluster 4 so not overly supported within the EPS.

Cluster 1 does look a little more favourable for cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

 Lukesluckybunch

The 12z eps are a massive downgrade on 0z, that is undeniable.

 Met4Cast

They don't look as bad as i feared, above comment referring up to 240.

Edited February 9 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

 Met4Cast Clusters 3 (with a westwards tweak) and 5 look decent also.  Better than I was expecting at T240 to be honest.  Clearly there is some signal still to build the ridge west of the UK.

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The ECM det was in cluster 4 so not overly supported within the EPS.

Cluster 1 does look a little more favourable for cold.

In all clusters there are very few signs of low anomalies over Europe. That's a big problem

[SLEETY]

Ecm mild outlier at the end, so heoefully it's wrong again

[feb1991blizzard]

 Mike Poole

Perhaps the mean re-builds the ridge in FI instead of collapsing it as i feared, we'll know in a while.

[blizzard81]

This always happens. An erroneous Ecm op run. It will be back on track tomorrow. Ecm op and control in cluster 4 says it all. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM extended clusters, T264+:

These are not as good as the 0z by a margin.  Cluster 4 looks decent, cluster 6 looks OK ish, cluster 3 the block is too far north and west, and the others the blocking is disintegrating - I think that is the change from this morning, this is no longer trending towards a blocked outlook.

[SLEETY]

The way Ecm flips and flops in the later time-frames, might as well ignore it after 144 hours. 

Frustrating model like to know where it sits in the verification stats, currently

[phil nw.]

I share the frustrations.

We are heading for a notable -AO indicating an even weaker pv but still we can't get the cold here.

The Atlantic pattern still remains unfavorable with the  influential ridging again from the sub tropical/Iberian area often thwarting the southerly extent of cold.

I can't remember a Winter with so many obstacles that seem to crop up from promising background signals.

[Ali1977]

SSW with very little recovery - March  is going to be fun ️

 

Edited February 9 by Ali1977

[WYorksWeather]

ECM ensembles. Nothing really to see here.

The wind direction beyond day 7 is most likely some sort of easterly. Problem is we've not got much cold to our east so temperatures remain around average (above average relative to older averages given ECMs use of a 20-year mean).

You can see at day 10 on the ECM (albeit a slightly mild outlier), that there's just a general lack of much cold available to our east.

For comparison, the same date in 2023 and 2022.

And for fun, 2018.

In short, there's not a lot of cold to go around south of the 60N line at the moment, so it's going to be very difficult to tap into anything unless that changes. It's a double whammy - we have a strong influence from very mild conditions to our south-west, and our usual sources of cold are well, not very cold.

Again, Scandinavia was colder earlier in the winter, exceptionally so. But we didn't tap into it then, and now the cold is much further away from us.

 

[raz.org.rain]

 Ali1977 at this point, it really would not surprise me if a SSW leads to a March heatwave. The pattern trends in most of the outputs do suggest a continuation of the strength of Iberian highs.

[CoventryWeather]

 raz.org.rain this I would massively take. 

I think some people need to remember the Hadley Cell is expanding yearly now. It's not just over the Azores - it spreads easily to Iberia and into Europe. Results: Wetter and Milder winters and drier warmer summers. @Kasim Awanmentions it a lot and seems to be hated by many, but he knows models under do this - and clearly whats happened with potential cold spells this winter (and perhaps others to come). 

Late SSWs also seems to occur regularly nowadays (don't know if it happened much in the 80s/90s) which is why spring ends up awful. UK and Europe aren't experiencing seasons anymore - everything is completely out of sync due to this change in the Hadley cell. 

This will probably get moved to the moans and groans section but feel some here need a little education to why it's hard to get a proper winter event now. The 2018 BOTE is and will always be a once in a decade or even century event. That isn't going to reoccur sadly. 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

drier warmer summers

Your drier summers are not supported by the data. The summers are visibly wetter than 1980s & 1990s the latter especially featured prolonged anticyclonic periods, this has become less regular while we have seen some great summers with notably prolonged dry conditions (2018 and 2022 for example) they have not really been representative of the modern summer. 

England summer rainfall amount:

[Cheshire Freeze]

 Daniel* obviously the data says one thing but I’ve seen more evidence of drought (dried up landscapes) in the last decade than I ever remember before that.

[Derecho]

 Cheshire Freeze Problem is even with a minor decrease in rainfall, the risk of drought is enhanced by the fact it is much warmer then decades gone by. I agree with @Daniel* though in that precip trends are very uncertain in the UK overall. We don't know what atmospheric circulation will do in the future.

Due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions this winter I do seriously worry about Spain this summer though Spring can also be wet so it is still early days. 

I think some cloud seeding in Spain is what we need , end their drought, boost the snow in the Alps and improve our winter prospects. If only it was that simple ha. Or for ocean circulation in the North Atlantic to relax like it did in 2009-10.

I suspect the warm SSTs in the subtropical Atlantic are giving any long fetch SW'lies a bit of extra warmth in recent months. This winter seems to oscillate from briefly chilly to exceptionally mild.

Looking long range a quick switch to a La Nina appears to be on the cards. That and the very warm tropical Atlantic which should persist through the year means the start of next winter may well be promising with ridging in the North Atlantic towards Greenland, especially if the PDO is strongly negative.

Mark my words, I think the Atlantic hurricane season this year will be a really bad one unfortunately.

As you can tell I have given up on this winter...

Edited February 9 by Derecho

[raz.org.rain]

 Cheshire Freeze I may be mistaken but I believe one of the key changes in rainfall involves how much of it falls within a timeframe. Rainfall could demonstrate an overall increased trend, but if that rainfall lands within a drastically shorter timeframe, it'll have a different impact when compared to the same level of rainfall with an even spread.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 Derecho a rapid transition to La Nina could mean a washout summer for the UK…but you never know with the inflated Azores HP in play.

[Weather-history]

 Daniel*  Cheshire Freeze

 

I posted data last year on this compare to what was a genuinely dry period back in the late Victorian era. And posted before what then turned out the wettest Jul-Jan period on record for this region. Maybe the debate is better off continuing here, 

 

Edited February 9 by Weather-history

[raz.org.rain]

 Cheshire Freeze fortunately it's not a guarantee of a washout summer. We've got other factors such as the positive IOD which can contributes to a Mediterranean influence. There are examples of El Niño to La Niña transition summers that turned out to be warm and dry. Considering how influential Iberian heights have proven to be, I could imagine a season defined by multiple plumes.

[Derecho]

 Cheshire Freeze I hope not given the amount of rainfall we've seen in recent weeks! I suspect you are thinking of 2007 as an analogue... lol.

Other similar years would be 2010 and 2016. The former was quite poor but not to the same level as 2007/2012. 2016 I thought was pretty reasonable. I wouldn't mind a summer like that with more in the way of big thundery breakdowns.

The only matter of interest for me this winter is any potential SSW and the prospect of a phase 8 MJO but the GFS and EC differ from day 1! With the EC keeping things in the COD.

Can't rule out more cold and snow yet but it'll be difficult to get something notable I reckon. Hopefully next winter eh coldies?

[Daniel*]

The UK has not had a real issue with drought for over a decade now in fact it is very overdue a series of dry years, last time it began with dry but very cold winter of 2009/10, 2010 and 2011 were very dry years, then we saw wettest April on record in 2012 and awful washout summer which totally eliminated long term drought. No doubt with extreme heat we have been seeing although often brief, we see the landscape suffer on surface but the bottom line against a wetter backdrop this has softened impacts to groundwater and reservoirs so impacts have not been severe. Summer droughts become severe against a long term dry background as was seen in summer of 1976 after 1975 was also very dry year. If we do experience drought issues/ water stress in summer 2024, I think we need to look to water companies very critically there is no way after all these above average rainfall month after month, there is clearly a lack of infrastructure we need to build more reservoirs to collect this rain water for a growing population.

 

Edited February 9 by Daniel*