Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch Yep. We need to see the models reverting to that build of pressure to our north west at the end of next week. That ship may well have sailed but I've seen full suites back off on something then revert back to showing what they originally showed. We are talking days 5 to 6 here so we do just about have time for favourable backtracks. Of course, 'favourable' backtracks are so rare they are almost extinct lol but you just never know. Even then, if that doesn't transpire, I believe we are still in the game before Feb is out. 

[Dennis]

spring delay forseen 

 

 

[chrisnoy]

 blizzard81 Sorry if this is the wrong place to ask but is there a list of times for different models to emerge from Meteociel and Wetterzentral. I would be interested in seeing EC 06z Control but have no idea where to look for it or what time.

Thanks

[northwestsnow]

 chrisnoy meteociel Chris.

Click on ECMWF and the 0.4 run.

[Don]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

It’s really like pulling teeth at the moment !

I think we've run out of teeth to pull Nick?!   

[Froze were the Days]

 Blessed Weather Thanks for the reply...I'll look forward to another March then that offers possibly more in the way of wintry weather than January but please no cold rain! 

[Mcconnor8]

 chrisnoy

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php   - This is the ECM 06z run to 90 hours, comes out around 1Pm each day

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php - This is the Control run which goes to T+144 and comes out about an hour later.

 

[blizzard81]

 chrisnoy Northwest snow and Mcconnor kindly posted the link there. It rolls out from about 1.45pm..... Very slowly lol. No real changes on that latest run. 

Edited February 10 by blizzard81

[Capri61]

I am not giving up on Winter yet !! The latest model output is showing some colder conditions in around 10 days.

 

The photo attached was taken on the 1st of March 2018 so anything can still happen . With all the predictions of a SSW in the near future I wouldn't rule out a BFTE late Feb early March .

Plenty time yet for things to change in our favour .

Edited February 10 by Capri61

[Rain All Night]

14 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z/18z deterministic runs, Sat 10th to Fri 16th (day 7)

This evening's deterministic runs are kind of boring and don't feel particularly worth commenting on... the only thing that strikes me is how everything seems to be moving from southwest to northeast. I would be interested to learn why that is.

12z/18z ensemble means, Sat 10th to Sat 24th (day 15)

After reaching "peak heights" around 19th Feb (perhaps a dry interlude), we deteriorate to mean Atlantic control around 21st Feb, but it's interesting to see the mean surface depression move to our eastern side after that - quite an eye-catching signal so late into these runs - along with a modest but appreciable signal for Atlantic heights.

Here's the hemispheric view of the ECM mean at day 15 - not bad:

Cheery lot you are in here today!

0z/6z deterministic runs, Sat 10th to Sat 17th (day 7)

Admittedly there's not a lot to be cheery about in the coming week; Thursday-ish looks wet when that next little low decides to make its way over the UK. By next weekend we finally start to see those height rises from the south which may give us some hope of subduing the Atlantic influence, at least temporarily.

0z/6z ensemble means, Sat 10th to Sun 25th (day 15)

Judging from these, we might hope to keep the Atlantic out from around 17th Feb for at least four or so days. The two GEFS means then become very interesting in terms of that signal I mentioned yesterday evening for mean low pressure to have moved to our east later on. The other two models do reach this conclusion as well, but are more hesitant.

Bonus

Screenshots taken from earth.nullschool.net yesterday and today (showing temps and winds at 850hPa); it's nice to watch that high pressure over Iberia get blasted away, even if only temporarily!

You wouldn't necessarily think it looking at that second screenshot above, but the weather at my location (inside the green circle) is actually rather fine today.

Edited February 10 by Rain All Night

[Lukesluckybunch]

So close to something decent on the icon!..Very frustrating at 168..that cold air just over the north sea!

[Rain All Night]

 Lukesluckybunch Funny seeing it actually show a Scandi high after all 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Rain All Night said:

Funny seeing it actually show a Scandi high after all 

Absolutely..and at 180 it's as flat as you like!will we ever get lucky!

[chrisnoy]

GFS looking better at 138hrs ?

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, chrisnoy said:

looking better at 138hrs ?

about the same 6z I would say..just too much energy to the northwest!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gem might work at day 7!

[raz.org.rain]

 Lukesluckybunch those Iberian and Azores highs still looking very potent.

[chrisnoy]

 Lukesluckybunch I feel there's a chance around this time, if only it can hold and build...

[Ali1977]

Day 8 looking like it’s close to a good set up, good swings so far on the 12z 

[Ali1977]

PV Oblitération here, not the perfect set up yet but it’s a good way forward 

Edited February 10 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 8 looking like it’s close to a good set up, good swings so far on the 12z 

Looking like it's gonna have 2/3 bites at it to get the perfect set up..if even it will do?

[Daniel*]

Very blocky run with hallmarks of an imminent or ongoing major SSW. 

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch of take that at day 10 , PV ain’t coming back any time soon 

[feb1991blizzard]

Strat charts are down again annoyingly at just the right time!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Do I have to say anymore!!?