Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Dennis]

splitsigns March on a new ssw

[northwestsnow]

 Dennis sadly Dennis its a lot more rain on EC 00Z.

[Dennis]

 northwestsnow try to fix it mate 

[northwestsnow]

 Dennis I wish I could Dennis ..

we be back in November to try again

[feb1991blizzard]

 Dennis

Yes - noticed that, i have a feeling of very very strong blocking regime late March, i might do a post later if i can find all the charts i need, unfortunately though because the transition is likely mid March or after, most on here will hope my forecast goes as well as the rest of mine this winter.

[Dennis]

 

 feb1991blizzard

see gfs0z today 

 

[Penrith Snow]

The annoying thing is that we may see charts in early March that would of produced snow in early February but will just be cold rain as 850's won't be cold enough. High SSTs for the time of year won't help either.

[LRD]

You can sense the tumbleweed rolling around in this thread!

GFS ensembles from about next Thursday won't please anyone (apart from some snow loving sheep and villagers on some northern and north-western hills). Cool/coldish rain, no snow, and no spring-like conditions

[bluearmy]

There is a chance 

a few runs sniffing at a trough extension from the west which undercuts the ridge behind the northerly.  The cyclonic northerly on offer looks v unlikely to be cold enough away from elevation in the north. But with uppers -3/-4 in place behind the low, a trough extending across and undercutting the ridge would bring a neg tilted front into the U.K.

timing around 26 feb /28 feb  

[AO-]

 Dennis

Good Morning,

Isn't that the sign of the final warming Dennis? It often occurs in March/april. Meanwhile EC is not very interested in a blocking scenario (EPS nothing more than average after week 1). GFS much better and seems spot on lately when it comes to the synoptic pattern (change). Hopefully the blocked pattern leads to sunny conditions regardless if it's cold or not. I prefer dry conditions. 

[Cambrian]

It’s looking like the UK and Ireland will be under the influence of a particularly slow moving trough from around day 6 through to the end of the month and into March. 

0z GEFS at day 6, 10 and 16.

  

I like seeing this in the models, as it moves us on from the mild, incessantly damp theme of the last several and immediate next few days, and is more believable than being teased with a straight as a dart northerly or a pretend Scandinavian high. 

It’s actually a reinforcing pattern, cyclonic becoming northwesterly for a good few days before relaxing into a westerly around day 12. Hints then though of another injection of some more serious polar maritime air as another low pressure moves southeast out of Greenland, cyclonic and more northwesterly again, shown here in the day 8-16 animations. Notice that the PV is gravitating once more towards the centre, extending back over the pole.

 

Although very much at the low end of the ensemble for temperature, something like the 0z GFS op is not out of the question, with a cold polar maritime theme being maintained throughout, not much difference between day 9 and 14, T850 chart for day 13 as a taster.

  

Bursts of poleward amplification up through Greenland, but nothing major or sustained, northwest Europe too messily cyclonic to get a clean draw south off the Arctic.

A long way off but looks like the kind of period where the hills might see plenty of snow coming and going - changeable and rather cold fits the bill, definitely more seasonal for the end of winter. Have a great day.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this morning, T192-T240:

I’m struck by how deep into southern Europe the trough gets by day 10, on clusters 1 to 4.  What’s at stake is how strong the ridge upstream of it is, with cluster 2 the strongest, cluster 1 the weakest.  Cluster 5 is rather different with a UK high, cluster 6 fails to put up much of a ridge - these are very minority solutions though (4 members each).

T264+:

I’m sensing this timeframe very up for grabs, as we enter a timeframe where I’m not sure what is forcing the pattern (if anything).  Opportunities to pull down some colder air in the mix though.

Edited February 16 by Mike Poole

[MJB]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

very very strong blocking regime late March

White Easter  

[Battleground Snow]

You know this will happen when it's too late, Greenland almost useless for snow in march, needs scandi with a east or south east draw from the continent for low dew points.

[Rain All Night]

13 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, Fri 16th to Thu 22nd (day 7)

I suppose we want to cheer on the model showing the most interesting-looking storm now..?

12z ensemble means, Fri 16th to Fri 1st (day 15)

ECM now has the mean trough over the UK from the 22nd through to the 26th, which is a lovely prospect. And it brings it back over us by the turn of the month, although at least it leaves the mean surface low pressure on our eastern side, the slightly more interesting side. All three models show the Atlantic high pressure signal peaking around the 27th, but even at that point it isn't looking especially impressive.

0z deterministic runs, Fri 16th to Fri 23rd (day 7)

I guess we are looking for a steeper northwest-southeast gradient on the back edge of the trough for greater interest later, so the UKMO would be the pick here.

I would be interested to hear from any members with more of an interest in the finer details as to just how wild & windy it could get under the big purple blob later next week.

0z ensemble means, Fri 16th to Sat 2nd (day 15)

The trough still looks to be the main influence over the UK from 22nd through 26th. Still a chance of a slightly cooler flavour as the ridge builds in behind it around the 26th, but the more settled-looking mean from that date does not now remain for very long, and the ends of these runs leave us with the impression that there could be more weather coming from north of west later.

Edited February 16 by Rain All Night

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, LRD said:

GFS ensembles from about next Thursday won't please anyone (apart from some snow loving sheep and villagers on some northern and north-western hills). Cool/coldish rain, no snow, and no spring-like conditions

I realise it's more for the model moans thread but it is a long way from being the worst possible outcome. That would be equally cyclonic but SW-ly, both very wet and very mild. Get colder air in and it'll probably turn drier even if it's still cyclonic, particularly if the lows turn flabby as is happening on the GFS mid-range. More concerned about what GFS 00z is showing going into March (southerly tracking lows, good for the north, bad for the south), tbh...

Edited February 16 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

ECM meteograms are holding temperatures around average to slightly above in England and southern Scotland, only going below average really in the far north.

Reading:

Newcastle:

Edinburgh:

Stornoway:

You can really see that the cold signal is virtually non-existent away from the north of Scotland. Daily means averaging 5-6C in the south and 3-4C in the north are nothing particularly out of the ordinary for this time of year. Unfortunately the pattern does look very wet as well, which is the last thing we need right now.

 

[Frigid]

On the plus side, GEFS 6z does lower the mean uppers. Nothing spectacular but it's a start. 

[Purga]

A month late

[johncam]

Not much cold to our east though to tap into 

[Penguin16]

 Battleground Snow Unless it’s exceptional cold it’ll easily melt away without altitude in March no matter what direction the wind blows.

17c in Germany at the moment. It’s all a bit of a joke. February is hardly a winter a month anymore if the previous 5 Februarys are anything to go off.

[jellybaby1969]

 Penguin16 for most of Europe those temps are typical of April !

[CoventryWeather]

There's a risk of something cooler later next week, looks like a core of the polar vortex moves near to Scotland. 

I'd say there is a small chance of snow to lower elevations as the thicknesses are 522-524 widely. Think at this time of year 850 temps aren't fully accurate to record snowfall. Not an expert in this though. 

But I'm enjoying today, peaked just above 13 and it's pleasant. A few convective showers but nice to see spring nearby. 

[Jordan S]

Afternoon 

I suppose not too much to add as the outlook looks largely the same as said previously but I will add a few details, I want to focus on this low pressure system between Wednesday and Friday first of all, bit of uncertainty to the timing of the low pressure system but could give snowfall to levels down to 150-200 metres or so on the northern/northwest flank of the precipitation for a time as it travels northeast over northern parts, location yet to be determined near the time and this isn’t a certainty, in any particularly heavy bursts of precipitation, snowfall could creep down closer to 120-150 meters, but any accumulation reserved for ground above these values for the most part and unlikely to be significant away from the Scottish mountains if this scenario plays out with rain for the majority even here.

Elsewhere heavy rainfall sweeping east/northeast with blustery wintry showers following into the northwest on Thursday/Friday, though rain around coasts and mostly rain away from high ground in the north, small chance of weak thunderstorms, precipitation entirely as rain in the south at first though showers by next weekend could turn wintry over some hills of Wales and southwest England in heavy showers.

Driest weather for eastern Scotland, far Eastern England and southeastern England upto next weekend, though some rain here too on occasion especially by next weekend as another low pressure system sweeps across parts of the UK.

Gfs as an example..

Temperatures average to slightly below average in places for this period upto end of next weekend.

We probably see a relaxation of the northwesterly beyond next weekend especially by the 27th as the high to our southwest moves closer to the southwest temporarily as hinted in previous couple of posts though this expected a couple days later, so should see slightly less unsettled conditions in the south for a time and a bit milder here, temperatures look like remaining around average or a little below in the north though but less so than the days preceding it with winds more westerly across the UK as a whole later 27th - 1sr March.

Take more more note of the high in the chart below, than wind direction as it seems a little off in accuracy for this time period in regards to that.

Into first few days of March though and we could see a brief return to northwest winds as high amplification to our west strengthens, though a link up to Greenland from the mid Atlantic high at this stage is unlikely but not to be ruled out entirely. Temperatures may trend slightly below normal briefly for all with unsettled conditions widespread once again, relatively cold and cyclonic to end the month and beginning of March sums it up generally even with the relaxation of the colder pattern if it does occur.
 

But on balance I think this will be brief, before looking slightly further into the first week of March and after a likely cyclonic and relatively cold first couple of days for all, patterns are liable to stagnate even more in the mid Atlantic after the preceding stronger jet stream of late February, weak high pressure may form over Greenland and this should keep lows on a more southerly track but with heights increasing to our south/southeast as well later in the first week of March there’s an increasing chance of very mild or even fairly warm conditions moving into southern and eastern areas temporarily, partly driven by areas of unsettled weather moving steadily into western areas drawing up southerly winds, possibly giving the first 20c of the meteorological spring in the south and east of England along with drier though not completely dry conditions for these areas and overall staying very unsettled in the west and north, temperatures around average by then in the north.

This could change as the reliability of models and my posts admittedly have tanked somewhat in some aspects of forecasts but I’ve got much more confidence with this outlook for early March than has been the case for a couple of weeks.

 

Will post another update on Wednesday regardless of any changes between now and then on the outlook but I suspect not much change will take place in these few days. 

[Dark Horse]

 Penguin16 you have to go further and further east every year to get some lasting cold it would seem miraculously it avoids most of Europe. 

Edited February 16 by Dark Horse